Dave Paleologos

" Wendy Murphy."

" Wendy I -- I'm -- but I don't. I don't know why you don't get a label of -- are you haven't exactly. Then you know mr. on the roster Hagen in part time -- coming -- yeah about holding these people responsible to go now your little Wyatt -- fish."

" Little a little -- not and -- tie shirt I thank them listen to the kind of the death penalty that one I was on the prosecute them shoot them jailed amendment kill me can't -- did -- logos you know we've been reaching out to. And at chat with Dave through the entire eighty of this this campaign most people Wendy complain on the campaigns to on these presidential campaigns they're crazy. I think this campaign every day has been a treat. E and I think the American public benefited by a long campaign close examination of Hillary John McCain. Mitt Romney Barack Obama sold on the -- it has been a long campaign has given us and the -- had to -- and -- always -- yeah attention -- people would like to have another for six weeks to the -- that in any event you know helps is that it all hope -- preeminent holes of the channel seven Suffolk University for so many people and organizations and we a lot of they have -- the around for parents forum -- Dave good morning welcome."

" erode the fields I guess and that means when I use that phrase you know -- listeners have come to know understand what that means. When you are in the field you measuring public response to what the people are seeing and hearing from the candidates Ian -- sari gets -- The advertisements. What should we know today Monday morning September 15."

" Well you know two weeks ago it was Obama today -- McCain we were in the field last Wednesday through Saturday when we focus just on Ohio over the last few days because Ohio obviously at the -- went from the pain. And -- it is an even more critical state for Obama given some of the ships that are happening -- them the other states and and are all the were released today. John McCain is leading old Barack Obama by 4% 46% of what do well."

" Okay now is that is that nationally earned just that don't are I don't know I don't care -- apart so are you are likely you know art and with the rest some pulled her reference to a few minutes ago -- RKO. Use it it was 5047 is that's at that particular staters that."

" And national -- actual track of his basically to say no it's reflected that basically Ohio's numbers."

" Well yes -- no you know I mean I I mean we don't do national polls because they really don't. Back there in the national election in 85% of Americans have decided it. 85% of the states and it it it in the country. Are already spoken for. And they're really unlike the primary which -- every state in this election Israeli down to 76 or seven states and Ohio was one of the -- and and it really matter and -- is you know Wendy you know you and went popular vote -- electoral and vice versa so all of popular."

" You puke and you. Didn't so good helping us understand how these numbers work and a work in the significance of seven states and separate but is as a surprise to you to see the national numbers the same as our numbers it is it just a fluke."

" It's really -- date April correlate. But like CNN national poll includes tax states like California. New York and taxes they're outspoken force so I mean when you're looking at Monica. And national survey -- including people school are already counted on by both campaigns. Massachusetts is in the column right now."

" Obama where the art and culture we're almost irrelevant does this just so what about the other states."

" You know and ended the trends facing anything."

" But it's Hollywood Ohio was fascinating because we did test -- pale and in terms of whether voters. Identified with the -- and we we actually listed all four of their vice presidential presidential candidate so was Obama and Biden and and McCain inhaled and we asked. Which candidate most like to do it up before us Garrett Haley came out -- to want and that's."

" While did you bring law -- down I mean she's obviously most like -- females right."

" That that's right but Obama at 22%. McCain 21%. And we asked the question about do you think the media has treated our Ellen barely partially or totally against Ohio motorists. 38% harshly only 23%. Barely. So. You know that tells us that. You know voters of all parties still believe that she's being treated harshly and -- Behind that number as we looked at just independence and you know independence are really what swings these. The key battleground states and we asked that question of just independents and Ohio 42%. That -- and only six. Percent that the air --"

" Hall all you got -- this is news this is interesting news Davies did this. This poll be released later today. -- all -- devastating news from Iraq if those numbers continue to hold. That means that means time as I listen do you David. More people feel as if she mirrors there existence -- and the F feeling some sympathy for -- her for the what -- PC is an -- the FB."

" Well op that's right and obviously Democrats are saying. They think that she was treated fairly and typical -- Republicans say that they think you know she's being treated harshly by. They really don't matter remote battleground states what the people that matter partly Independent because. For example on this in this question. You know. It in the state there's only 7% undecided. But if you look at independence 13% are undecided so if you -- campaign you want to target. The Independent voters and they are -- seven to one margin saying. You know that overwhelmingly they feel that -- being treated harshly."

" But did let me ask you something I mean this is probably an obvious question back so liked how does if at all and gay and can you measure this how does. Idea that she's being treated unfairly in the media Corley to a likely vote for the Republicans."

" Well all of the people interviewed are likely voters."

" Now I may I mean why does outlook I can think she's being treated unfairly. And not want to vote for her isn't this about Hillary Clinton. -- on it in the early stages the primary that I thought she was being -- treated it treated unfairly and I wasn't going to vote for her."

" It's an excellent question and here here's how I would answer. And Hillary Clinton as a perfect topic here if you look at how the Democrats so our our voting. By wide margin they're voting Obama in Ohio 86% of that there of people who consider themselves democratic voters that they itself identified. Are saying Obama and only 9% McCain but if you look at Clinton -- Clinton voters -- Democrats. Only 77 a thought Obama and sixteen almost double the nine. A voting for hanging out there were two problems number one independents. Who -- that she's being treated harshly. And number two Clinton Democrats bite. A slight. You know I lighting create saying that they're voting -- the combination of those two I think is making a difference at all island."

" And Wendy don't and don't ever underestimate the a sense of sympathy. Human reaction to a sympathetic situation. It's fairly close to like ability we always talk about like ability Dave reminds us all the time candidates have to be likable. And if people are feeling sorry for -- not like oh she's a pathetic figure sorry because she is sort of like them more ordinary perhaps an ivy -- get the crap kicked out about that sympathy I think in India as angry that I listening to respond -- did Hillary Clinton's. "

" Like abilities favorability rating was. Through the roof when Clinton was being serviced under the desk -- shall I -- So that's weird to me that you that a girl especially gets more votes because she's being picked on because I don't think that kind of sympathy vote were necessarily. I've for guys were being treated unfairly that kind of gender sexism -- but Dave to."

" The only problem going forward that it it it kind of inoculate -- from. You know from real issues because. It it's obvious that. You know I think that think it was well if if if we -- through a record we find discrepancies would point them out we'll battle apple changed that dynamic. And I think what what I'm learning from the -- but at least -- bullet that there's a general sense that you know that -- there is embellishment on both sides. And you know it's it's not exactly true it's it's not so much these details but the tone of the attacks and whether or not. It disrespectful or or or or run just."

" David I assume you're out there in the field in Ohio taking this this sample. In the midst of a barrage of political ads both sides back and forth. Is -- anything you've gleaned from real poll that says that certain -- of backfiring on that certain ads are succeeding."

" No we did ask the question of comfort -- because I'm a trying to figure out -- there are any underlying dynamics of the undecided. And we did ask you know at what level would look you know which you feel extremely comfortable with Barack Obama very comfortable. A somewhat but not at all comfortable and they really want that a marked difference except that. There was slightly more people don't I don't was that the they would need not at all comfortable I mean. Obviously Democrats charge Republicans and vice -- but overall 31% of respondents. That it would be not at all comfortable with Obama and 27%. Not at all comfortable."

" Markets trust that that that's reasonably close final question that I have for you David is this you mentioned that this is shifting dynamic for -- and not a good one right now at least plenty of time left a rescuer for Barack Obama but. Has for from the last time you measured from the previous times you've been out there in Ohio measuring things. Has McCain has it been growth for McCain. -- decline. Of Iraq that gives this four point edge."

" Well I think it's been a combination of of of bulk and I would also say that there there was some good signs Earle Palmer on the pole for example. We ask the question which of the four presidential and vice president candidate. Cares about problems that people like you not who was like yeah but who. Cares about the problems of people like. 40% that Obama at 22 of the -- it to Ellen so people believe that he identified in cares and understands problems. And I think that may speak to be at about McCain being out of -- not being able views."

" That is a good not beyond those good indicators and for Barack Obama might give it to regain his footing to think that he has sent compassionate sincere on some level about how he feels about that people and their plight."

" I don't you answer this question -- but that. Cool is most like -- question. Did that breakdown on gender lines."

" Yes -- bad although 23% of men that that are Halen was most like that. But 38% of women so obviously it was it was waited in the -- on gender. You know but I mean for you know if you are Barack Obama you really need to go back to the bread and butter issues in the one of the questions we asked the poll was. You know I'm sure you're aware that. That Ohio has high unemployment rate yeah I would like it's like bogus severance on the -- the country and so we asked the question. Who was best equipped to help bring jobs -- island that was you know that was overwhelmingly. Obama so you know there are places you know in the pulled it clearly. Can develop."

" I I I have another question speaking of Obama are related to the breakdown and gender in terms of who's most like me or her to -- identify most wins because I'm fascinated by the identity politics of race gender wise more than anything in this race. I'm wind if at all you aspect question. -- and broke it down along race lines in terms of who was answering did you get a similar disparity. Or similar number. -- when people said they identified with Obama in other words was it 38% black or was it a bigger number to people do in at least two people identified based on their blackness when you asked that question. Along race signs about Obama the way breaks down when you're asking about gender to understand my question."

" Yet the week we -- and and add to excellent question 13% of the respondents were African American. 39%. Of them said Obama and 32 O Barton. Virtually nothing for the Republican candidates Obama and."

" So Obama by -- it Obama Biden will sweep the African American. Vote and it sounds to me like going back to the economic points that you made David -- is Asia wrote in the field bust week. They -- a dispatch Biden to talk about jobs in the economy in the meltdown of Lehman and Wall Street and all the rest -- stuff nonstop between now when -- November 4."

" Yes -- although I did noticed that in these questions Biden really didn't do very well at all -- the question of the question of identification. He only got 13% of the four candidates and the question of cares and understands problems of people like me only up 4% so. So he's he's kind of out of the mix of the four candidates in terms of identification. And -- and understanding about problems. But thankfully you know Obama picks up the slack on the on the understanding problems questioned. You know it's pretty much toppled. And -- request."

" David we you know you're always so good with -- time of this will be and I promised last question and -- ago we are going to so obviously stay with this and -- take calls as well at six point 72666868. I know you're in the field but I know you don't hear you really you go 247 and you never sleep the antennas are always on the estate to the north Michigan. Has a very symbolize. Economic challenge and economic difficulty. I keep here in grapevine tock that Michigan is likely to go Republican which is a surprise. You know at least given past presidential elections are you picking up anything at all from other sources David."

" What what we do know what that Obama that low single digits right now and of course. You know if you look at polls back in July it was in -- single digit. They have issues -- around there if -- You know problems where it. You know Detroit. And in the suburban areas don't want I mean there's only one poll that -- and it had. And it had that was right that was I think on the tenth of Amber's so. You know the probability. Is better from the I'd I'd and you have to if you polls Amanda in the same timeframe. You know. It is McCain competitive I don't believe that wish -- and not republic and Norton -- of the manual and a republic about it the other the other states that are that are really Matta but the fact that they had teetering there today C a telltale sign Nash."

" Real indicator he did it ticket taker called Joe is calling from Cambridge who wants to know -- little bit about the science of polling -- well I run the with. Throughout your on the it would -- logo."

" Morning hey David I'm just a question terms of the political polling numbers that that promote consulate -- if you take into effect. The fact that a lot of younger voters do not have -- and line telephones. That you may have access to it's actually poll and if you. We take into consideration the potential for younger people that may not apples will -- more Ponce -- the value factory built into the yet received in numbers."

" It's an excellent question and one I often get out in the answer is that the key is that in the demographic make up. You can't -- any demographics. Of what's going to happen on Election Day so you've got a quote what we -- quota. The different age groups proportionally -- and he demographically and historically about what they show. So the land based call up polling centers. Don't includes cellphones but it doesn't mean it young people aren't counted well luckily likely voters that they may have. Land lines and cellphones or land lines only. But this was a key issue especially you know -- 2000 and Florida I remember getting asked the question that. You know that John -- had these hundreds of thousands of young people with cellphones and a vote changed -- The polling structure of which it didn't happen that. But I think that as more more people. A port land lines and go with -- it will be a problem maybe not the disciple but you know if you just cycle."

" Appreciate the call that Joe and David I had mentioned that would only keep her for another moment and that moment has come and gone. Fabulous stuff. How -- going to continue to talk about it obviously and love they have the ability to reach out to you to get the guidance from you wanna. -- what our day to day basis nothin' better than I have a day of -- logos and as I said. Credit the outs and he is the -- approaching seventy it's so fast and is absurd testing we didn't get asking about Lindsey Lawrence and -- well hey you're Dave has his own ideas about Lindsay don't."