David Paleologos

" Joining me the RKO studio is my co host for the day Warren told and everybody knows why aren't told what a great co -- they have lot of fun. -- it is good to have you weren't good to see you look great and I know the kids are doing okay because between breaks we can affiliates other you know what's gone on -- up families and now lives. And stuff and look who's in the studio again you know Dave pale ale logo CU you not thinking of seminary doesn't analyze how ha ha ha ha. You have become a legend -- you were alleged to warrant myself anyway beforehand but the rest of the general public is now static to figure out that they they've really still have trouble with your name why they would legend that's exactly they're really struggle -- David the paley logos they have nailed down but there really struggle over this it's on it's the David that's really throw them. Actually people stop -- in the streets hate that gap that guy you have want to know instantaneously that talk about you he's unbelievable the way he gets this political stuff. New Hampshire. Texas Ohio Pennsylvania this one that went just as everybody else in the political world seemed to. I'd be predicting a Barack Barack Obama runaway phenomenon you'd be saying hey here's what we see happening in this state -- what we see happening in this state Indian nailed that each and every time now I don't mean to build -- build that up to open up so when that. Everybody at some point -- slip a little bit on the high wire jokes public polling -- not -- GQ. But so people really look forward to this of course warrant and I -- junkies most of the audience is is very very interest in what is likely to happen today. And how this affects the road to stuff. The White House so you've been since we last talked. And that you called the Pennsylvania. Just about right on the button I think you said ten points for Hillary and came in like nine point six -- some some of the like that so -- four tenths of a percent and don't let that happen again slack -- just want to look at a little slack since you've been pulling out in. Indiana in so we want to talk to you at least not enough about that what you've seen what you've heard what your senses of the outcome a likely outcome in Indiana today."

" We have in -- Hillary Clinton winning Indian Indian around our statewide poll. By 6% and we just finished our Bellwether last night which is Delaware County Indiana which is sort of mid north. East Tokai northeast of Indianapolis Delaware County we we have selected as the Bellwether and last night came back Hillary by seven. So in. The you know we've been using the statewide poll plus the Bellwether poll two separate polls and when both agree. They haven't been wrong. When they disagree usually the Bellwether tends to be more accurate also Coca in this case both agree that that that Hillary will wind so wolf will will see what at least."

" of without another refresh my memory warrants and most importantly the listening audience. When you choose a Bellwether in -- state and you choose chose Allegheny county I believe down in Pennsylvania right when you choose a Bellwether. What are the factors that go into choosing that what is it that Leo looking for in a particular region and a particular state. That you think -- sets a good predictable in place."

" The the objective is to figure out which areas of my appeal ward and precinct in election district or county. Reflect the statewide total and what we consider it to be like elections and in this case it's where there is no incumbent on the ballot you have. It's technically a democratic and Republican primary at the same time and so we went all the way back to 1988 Jesse Jackson do carcass that democratic primary so we we've looked at 1988 we looked at 2000. Those two elections and in both of those elections both sides Democrat Republican. The 123 finish in not only was in the correct order but that the 123 finisher was within 4% of the stake."

" Wide average okay so and and that that that that tells you you have a pretty good Bellwether. If it was only 88 I assume he would have some qualms or reservations -- twenty years ago but less -- refresh have changed yes. And and so you know we look at all of the election districts that we have data for in some states don't have electronic data we have actually import manually truck -- tried to figure out whether in art reflects that week what we can say is that back district has the political the and they of the statewide numbers and so in this case it was Delaware County which includes Muncie a bunch of other territories com. And democracy the Bellwether degrees puppy with a statewide I'm curious what you sense of the US senator wrote there is Evan bayh and I think he did a pretty. Concede he did it good public endorsement of Hillary and he's been on the road with the do you have a sense that as the US senate he has a good -- some to some have a good organization some do not we've talked a little bit about governor Rendell Don and Pennsylvania is having been. Again rock solid behind Hillary and put his organization governor usually has a better organization and US senator you have any sense of that -- is that something that. You'll only get you direct."

" Usually in smaller states US senators have better grass roots organizations now -- in the Indiana which is about a half the size of Ohio or Pennsylvania. You looking at smaller territories smaller numbers in the greater influence in terms of the specific groups that the US senator or governor needs the court. So in that regard I think that his stomping his helped her field organization and also he has appeal in all parties because he's the US senator there are people who like you all all parties Democrat Republican Independent green libertarian from other political party affiliations in all of those voters can vote in the democratic primary unlike Massachusetts all okay anyone in Indiana as long as they have -- ninety -- can vote and that there."

" Yeah very good point here -- I think that we ought to point -- for the viewers it listen to sit here we have it in open primary. -- Republicans are going -- Republican and you want to quote unquote muck up the works for the Democrats. You'd like to prevail on this primary he would like to see Hillary and Barack oh right up. Frankly you like them to go right up to the inauguration Arrojo a right to November of boys and girls being Baghdad's yeah. You know so so you have a lot of Republicans David correct me if I'm wrong here we're going to take the democratic primary ballot that Beatrice she which are numbers -- What percentage of of the voters in the democratic primary actually going to be. Republicans are going to take that democratic ballot and what is the breakdown of them how many people what percentage accountable for Iraq what percentage notable for Hillary. And now to what extent -- let's say that Hillary's going to win by six. How much is that accounted for by the Republicans."

" It's it's a fascinating breakdown it first of all it according to this poll 21% of likely democratic voters will be Republican registered Republican. 15% will be on enrolled are Independent in 61% will be democratic and that's actually pretty consistent with what I've seen. In the work of other pollsters in -- Indiana you know now of course they have early voting so there are some who have already cast Val else -- but among registered Democrats Hillary Clinton is actually winning double digits. Among registered Democrat -- Indiana but in among -- in roles she's doing quite poorly so they'll they'll probably be a lot of the younger voters who a less inclined to beat and -- and -- Democrat party affiliation and no party affiliation or or other party affiliation -- and that demographic also says that they have a high unfavorable to independence -- voting in the democratic primary and unfavorable toward Hillary Clinton so there's motivation to vote against her yeah but among Republican to seems to be pretty balanced in that speaks to put this whole McCain and Hillary Clinton interface if you well. In the foot in the you know in the gas tax issue in other issues where she's kind of you know embracing the bread and about it mainstream America theme sure especially with older --"

" There's a front whole thing fascinating and I know that you know Rush Limbaugh show was runs on this station from twelve to three and he is actually he has a a campaign afoot on his show. -- called operation chaos. Which is exactly what you just described why it is an encouragement of Republican voters in these primary states if they are allowed to under the rules of that particular state. To go win taken democratic ballot. And cause some mischief because of -- reading news Chicago 68 I have to so I'm deadlock. 2000 edit and -- you know -- everybody has an opinion on rush to teach he describes himself as the commander in chief. A cooperation chaos the figures given he's given the battle orders for the troops in the troops ago about -- ballots -- Hillary it has a -- and you know I cannot it to begin to pretend to measure but it obviously can have the it can have an effect in a in a close race it could have -- an effect and it might -- who knows it might be appointed to a three. Now as somebody like David comes along and actually tries to measure calibrate so you're saying David it's basically even most Republicans taken the -- right in among them on and rules it's very much in favor Barack Obama driven by younger voters. Let me ask a question North Carolina right million not pulling down there right so as a junkie as somebody who just is -- you know very very close observer of the scene. What have you seen and heard among -- fellow -- does the competitiveness. The people that you put you on number against and you've been really -- I'll used to wear a trouncing and yet too modest to say it but you've been you've been. He'd been beating them consistently okay elect a New England Patriots pre super ball close and we've been botched analog here they say want to season this guy's a juggernaut. And hats off again to Dave said to the people at Suffolk University who have given you this you know platform from which to demonstrate here you skill and your expertise so many people find it of great great value. What is your sense of the ball most credible pollsters what the as saying in the anticipating denim North Carolina we did much."

" North Carolina because. It is you say the -- model for these polls is number one. Is this a close race you know a lot of folks appalling races that are pretty determined to me we're not interested polling Arizona -- You know what we were -- involved or New York where Hillary Clinton's involved. I'm so what we choose to -- only only states that are going to be difficult to call number one. And number two is we always pull them at the very end of the of the of the primary. So we kind of hold our own feet to the fire and we want it that way we want the most pressure you know possible to to to look in to test the statistical model regarding North Carolina. I believe that it's probably going to be a single digit win. For Obama but it may be closer than people think. We didn't choose to two pole North Carolina because at that time it was a double digit in Portland -- it was a look like it's completely stampede -- for a 1518 point -- consistently -- I wouldn't be surprised if it's a single digit finished. But I would be you know."

" I would be shocked if if if an upset after the David as you've done this polling from state to state and you've seen Barack's numbers tips frankly particularly recently that if you just alluded to a North Carolina. -- to what do you attribute that to me and obviously reverend -- his. These preachers is obviously to have the biggest thing the customized for people put. It is that the only fingers Hillary -- gas tax a stance that help and her a lot of how much -- these things. Waiting in you know in places like. North Carolina where you're not point but also an Indiana where you are yes I think I think the reverend right pieces of big."

" Aren't of Obama's decline it definitely shows a chink in the armor I think the gas tax -- Peace is more about a few points to to capture among undecided voters who may say you know held his McCall connected to me why this gas actually understands what I'm going through and -- you know we understand it's not a long term fix but at least it's. Anecdotal and and and it's establishing a personal connection which they don't feel with Barack Obama but. All in all I think even a split is a win for Obama he leads it's like you know when you're leading in a boxing match you keep you can't draw -- you know and and in Hillary draws today it and most most of us believe that that got that will happen I mean there's an outside chart she could when both states but I you know. Probability says it's put these ties or these you know you sort of running out the clock by Leo Obama right Obama's going to be beaten and whether it and battered. And he's -- Mohammed Ali in the call on here not to John McCain's -- leave -- John McCain is going to be loaded for prepare for him way when when -- with him if that's in fact what happens switchers I think Michael in the McCain stories sells well."

" It just really does it's the character issue it's the POW issue it is that. Not type the dynamic. And you know the I I just think the Democrats are going to have a more difficult time. It would appeal from general review of what's going on the distaste and dislike of a President Bush the plunging economy the continued. Frustration with Iraq the sense that now. Boy oh home heating oil. Gasoline prices food prices. All moving in the wrong direction economic anxieties health hearings -- all of these should spell some form of political -- For the incumbent party in the White House and yet. McCain might be the guy who can overcome that particularly as these two Barack and Hillary continued the the slugfest that they have been that -- the had been having. Why -- asked about the reverend Wright has as an issue I'm I'm curious Davidson -- polling measure Kennedy anticipate what I would just what I would call the durability. Over the issue sometimes an issue comes along and it creates a little dust up for a candidate paley logos but. After a week at ten days it's passed on and there's another issue when your back on -- game. There are other issues that just stay they stick to somebody like -- in cat he just can't get it off. Annan is is reverend right -- these -- according to your polling or any other thing that you may have seen or heard one of those durable issues."

" It appears that of its adorable issue long term it's certainly something McCain is going to exploit. When we each week who when we chart the difference between the candidates as we do and all of the states you know you -- the that the chart gets really can't do it gets really close -- may bounce back up again if it's a short term issue. If this happened in Iowa or New Hampshire had the democratic situation that the reverend right situation the democratic nomination process would be significantly different when you know in this is how history is written boys and girls just a reminder for all of us and every -- up their this is literally how history is written this is how history -- if it had been disk."

" Avid and you know run on the on the networks another way it did just as several weeks ago. And Morocco bombers in Pepsi -- he had written off forever -- I mean people now say what gee you know. Iraq if he loses this time around he's a young guys that charismatic articulate guy. He has a he has a future he would have been written up -- believe this happened and I were New Hampshire in my opinion there's no resurrection of of Barack Obama."

" Or it may have he may have bounced back and been able to do the type of retail campaigning that Bill Clinton did so famously in 1992. -- that Gennifer flowers he would the the draft dodging issue would be the inhaling I didn't -- it all in this month or six weeks or Hampshire ahead and bingo you know he comes he comes in second. He's the comeback kid and you know he doesn't win any of the first seven primaries in 1992. Next thing you know he's the nominee in the Mexican president reelected all because it happened at the right time temple."

" timing is -- it's that's a great point timing it is Super Tuesday it was such a big event to being -- bigger really than the national general election because of its implications. Had this happen the week or two before Super Tuesday. Then the avalanche would have just you know rolled out and and you know Hillary would have sprung far ahead at that point but. Again because it happened so late. Obama's and a great statistical position now because it's going to be very difficult for her to catch him. Give us a snapshot give us a peek into the future after this we have West Virginia Kentucky. Aren't on Porta Rico. Montana South Dakota first about any of those states in which you think he'll be -- I would like to do Puerto Rico I think will be great person who want to get on their visit to. Except in jail in ways where else would you want to. But I think will be good philosophical also just to expand beyond sort of the national you know the national situation it into Mormon international purview so. I think we're looking at that but as long as the primary process is going I I think their position is we should continue to be in the field in polling in contributing to the process. And what you do you have."

" Any preliminary sense again and again this is more kind of a -- political question and then. As of David -- logos pollster and scientist political scientist just kind of -- got. West Virginia Kentucky are going to help me understand of those states in the light what do you think is the likely hilt as we speak today. Well I think he'll report."

" Events show up in those states countermeasures you know the gas tax implications and whether or not you know a lot of negativity. Toward Obama has has legs. You know his unfavorable ratings have gone up dramatically over the last couple weeks but he is holding its core base which is African Americans young voters and progressive voters so when a small state. You know it's like putting a teaspoon of sugar and a glass. You know those core constituencies can sweeten the flavor that glass sort of back glass of water but he put that thing -- teaspoon and a ten gallon drum and it's very you know of that core constituency probably who doesn't change the texture what's going on."

" Look at you when you say is unfavorable have gone up and -- get to some calls and now while we -- to some calls of we camp but this is because David is the best and I like to avail myself of the best when you say is unfair -- unfavorable have gone up dramatically in the past couple weeks. Can you give us a number of -- was and where it might be where it is today you know it's gone up single digits but someplace in the 25 to 32 from 25 to 33 you know it's clearly not you know. Lethal -- for him you know I remember when when -- and O'Brien was running for for governor you know the darker part it was really worried about that because her tables were were approaching you know forty or 50%. Which is run against -- so it's it's it's not that dramatic -- okay but it's significant in terms of trying to -- the big blocks of undecided voters."

" Has to be worrisome for particularly for a guy who actually hasn't won anything since sometime in in February is now bay county and he won a primary since -- why he had -- he. February had to be the greatest political month of all time that you know the Barack Obama February -- political month of all time for anybody ever in yet since then wolf it's been one challenge after another Hillary is a resilient. Resilient to the -- the resilient woman let's let's say it that way."

" And then you know that this primary calendar the remainder of -- language really favors killer I mean after Oregon on the twenty if you -- Mark tanner and so the colder who preceded by Puerto Rico but. -- in -- to caller I mean this management of this menaces the -- The group put the same group and it has more blacks in it and that's something going on on events so I think the reverend right. I you know although it -- his dad. Pretty damn well at some of these states that you look at and say well it's like 98% White -- going to do he is charismatic and has great. Crossover appeal or at least has until the reverend Wright decided to and it really nice -- however Russell we're no question about it but that those post. States where he's really done well I mean North Carolina you know no question about the African American vote. He's going to be a big part of mutual wide variety who's gonna do so well to."

" Leo we expect David is that right yes when you look at this when you look at the states. Obviously if you if you if you just sort of think of about it in terms of those three core constituencies African Americans progresses. And young voters if he's getting all three. You know -- in the state is small enough. It's going to have a huge indecisive or even two out of three. In this in the states where there aren't very many African American voters -- you've got enough progressives and enough young voters to push it over Iowa for example. But as the pool of voters gets bigger you know it's that it's that teaspoon sugar -- show you know eat you know you've got all in this mass of you know older net now you're having a big mass of Independent voters Republican voters most of whom -- That's problematic at least according to the polling data"