Decision '08 talk with Bob Hedlund & Ellen O'Brien

" Toby Berkowitz -- the dean of communications at EU and a political strategist and a guy elected -- Allen has reporting at the globe we have to call them for an infinite wisdom. And and here and I came out and work on Saturday McCadam on a couple of times and it's a lot of fun to bounce things up and throughout they're listening -- and decided there's a lots of you. Headline and I sit on opposite sides of the -- But we are trying to -- by process of elimination figure out who we should vote for restarting to strategize nearly a lot of people around the country. Were wondering who can -- it's a wild race Toby you up there I am good morning the experts say thanks for joining us. So do you remember race there was so up in the air at this point --"

" I think what's really interesting now is it's not one race it's two races you have both Republican and democratic primary coming up. And that makes it twice as much fun as usual."

" Exactly and it's and and the Dick doesn't seem to be anybody. Really breaking away on either side of the polls are right."

" Well for quite yet to be a little careful looking at the polls especially in Iowa but I think what you're going to happen in both -- particularly in New Hampshire -- the last minute decide there's people who make up their mind or over the weekend or on Monday you're literally walking into the polling place in New Hampshire on Tuesday. -- once were really in the decide this race and that's very very tough. Paul people worried undecided or -- supporters. And he'd -- a poll showing sort of someone with a little bit of momentum take degree assault on all the polls especially in Iowa."

" Toby how big of a deal is it that to paper and New Hampshire. To the unusual step of editorializing -- I danced Mitt Romney."

" It's rare that a paper goes out of its way to -- one of the candidates and so you know I'm not sure how much leverage any of the endorsements from the newspaper's editorial endorsements happen that they. Everyone that the DL alot of the -- Moines register you know and and who is. It's gonna win the worst. But I think especially in a race like this weird you have so many people still influx. I'm not sure anyone has posted whether it's that Concord Monitor -- war -- registered putting that big editorial about their refrigerator I just don't see that is having too much weight right now."

" Sits on 72666868 Toby Berkowitz the dean of communications at -- at Boston university and a political strategist joins us I'm on -- alongside. But had let the senator Republican senator joins me this morning filling in for Tom Finneran sits on 7666868 your questions about the race summit though highlights you've seen so far what you expect."

" He Toby how are you this morning good thanks but thanks for joining us one thing that interest me I think. Correct me -- wrong something like the first time in sixty years we don't have any incumbent president or Vice President seeking the nomination."

" Right and that's also why the race is vital interest in if you have wide open races. It is both sides without a president or Vice President run on either side."

" And I think in in in certainly in my adult life for adolescent life for I can remember it you know personally. Following presidential campaigns on the with anything quite like this since may be 1976 where we had competitive races on both sides."

" Right and that's the other thing right now both races are pretty much wide open and so it makes it all the more interest because the spotlight he would go on one side or the other almost certainly the democratic race with Hillary in Iraq has gotten probably more pressed every once in -- sort of tend to forget what we've got real race going here with the Republicans and so it's really divided. Attention of the media of the activist the people who really follow those rate these -- make it even more fun and more interesting."

" Told you what I like about that fact aside from the fact that choices are good for voters I think. And it I think it throws a monkey wrench. A little bit in the pollsters game because I think it's hard for the pollsters -- from wrong. It's harder for the pollsters to kind of see where the and enrolled might be trending to. Because you've got the choices on both sides if he had a nondenominational one side locked up an incumbent president running in one party for instance. We know that that's not going to get a lot of attention by the enrolled there are independent voters there any trends right now with with -- New Hampshire creeping up on us. Do we see where the and enroll their independent voters in New Hampshire might be trending two and -- the early the early down. I -- school of thought was it would be gravitating to the democrats' side but doesn't seem to be that way now."

" Right and that's really the wild card a lot of -- and in fact they just read this story that almost 50% of the voters. In New Hampshire are -- independence. We have this huge group essentially free agents early on people thought that this would perhaps -- Finished Barack Obama. Because the independence might like sort of a fresh faced but all of a sudden you have John -- starting to make a run and of course McCain was very popular with the independence back in 2000 so this is muddy even worse than it makes. The poll in all that much more difficult. -- on Election Day. To capture -- and one of these and -- voters in the go to the polls I think -- ago on the Republican side it. The democratic side which makes it really first of all -- that tough to poll. But also it's a real question where these last minute and decider is going to go."

" And registered independents are great story but I governments how many people registered already is Republicans and Democrats who were mean and decide at this point it's interesting."

" And that really is fascinating because usually when you have undecided voters it's in either primary or general election where people haven't been paying much attention to the race and all of a sudden this week laughter we can't last and these undecided or sub supporters all the sudden realized oh on how. Have to vote for someone administered making up my mind. Done it different in New Hampshire is I mean this has been getting massive amount of attention and press coverage. So these voters were undecided or stop supporters it's not because they haven't been paid attention -- they've been getting information that you haven't been able to make their mind not as -- candidates have been able to close the deal yet."

" And we want to talked about those McCain endorsements and some of -- coming out of some other campaigns in person want to take a call Larry index -- your next with. Ellen O'Brien senator about headline in our guest Toby Berkowitz."

" Combining a belated merry christmas to all things I just want to say that I think that the independent issue. And about the waiting to the end in case anyone all the major all of our. But also do you think think late that the -- in -- amateur another variable commend the play an independent academic ten years. And -- felt like they've -- the ops that it that it probably a bunch over twenty years look along -- somebody else amien. And that it in the bet -- they wait for the very last minute but I think they know but denied tipping their cards much."

" Thanks Larry for the call Toby how much to -- says New Hampshire and Iowa elected shaken up."

" Well they both liked it and he -- independent not not politically but just personally independent in terms of who they're going to vote for. They've lost to -- in the powers that be surprised and that's always have been a fun well one of the things that you're callers sort of leans to and that's the question of turn -- especially in Iowa where turnout -- So small. Com which campaign is going to get air voters to turn out the people who have really decided yet some for Hillary around for McCain run from it and now the problem is getting them to the clock is -- them to the polls and when you have so many people worried soft supporters are undecided it's much tougher to target who is it that you want to bring out in the polls whether it's in Iowa or capture."

" Toby Toby I'd love to talk about spin as you now. I Mac am I like to intimate have a political strategist. And I'm always confused when it seems that Demi god -- the producers anybody in my dinner table seems to come up with a what would have been a better strategy after crisis. Or a misstep or -- And you know when it whenever an upper right because we don't get to see it tested but I like your opinion. When -- when Rick before heading into christmas Ronnie gets caught up in this flare up about whether he signed his father -- My opinion was whether or -- you think he deliberately misspoke misled somebody or was speaking as he said. And figuratively we all hallucinate once -- exactly especially haven't given his age threats. The it. I thought he could have said it take for instance name I didn't get you spoke people's names -- you know and -- very straightforwardly. Look my father was on the rights and civil rights movement I'll learn to speak are carefully. If you learn to focus on the issues. That debt -- because he had the you know it is not that he had made up the whole thing about his by the being on the right side. And because the press people hate the press that so I would have done as a reporters it would have been chasing -- dining mine. But at the person consulting them I would it does that stick to those three sentences. This idea that they went to the dictionary and then they went to his privacy if you remembered -- we'll talk about mucking it up."

" Well and I think for all the candidates whether it's me. Admitted had several of these what one called lies exaggerations memory lapses. Our duty as head he share of course and questions about Iraq I think almost. All of these candidates because this campaign has -- ones -- almost all it actually did. Against their weaknesses so I think to some -- need is inoculated about the exaggeration and so it sometimes elaborate. Rudy might be somewhat inoculated against all of all the things that that it -- money is -- I know once more inoculated and Hillary and everybody knows all of the things that. That have been said and done with bill and Hillary so I wonder if these stories which ordinarily would've had such power. -- now people -- just sort of didn't know little Blase it's like oops there you go again one more witness at one where with Rudy and also you know you were -- when the strategies for me it would be just start to turn it around and attacked the press I wondered even have to anymore I think people. Has gotten so set up with a lot of the coverage in a lot of the attacked journalists that perhaps just each person at saint up it's just note the insiders."

" And -- out yet they they've really at that they really get mired down and it's it's on 72666868 Toby Berkowitz. They dean of the school of communications at Boston university and -- political strategist giants me Ellen O'Brien and senator but headless."

" Utah beyond the call from -- Larry mentioned. That they like to play the role of my guess you know spoiler of the a kind of the opposite type candidates up in New Hampshire and BCA history of that. Buchanan upsetting bush for instance I think Clinton come back back in 92 was evidence unto me it. Aviator 92 I detail exactly is evidence of that. And as someone who likes Ron Paul I like where I like Mitt Romney like Ron Paul Allen is cringing. But the fact is you should like -- because he's consistent he's against the war voted against war resolution one of the reasons why I like him he's got a great consistent voting record in congress. I get the sense that Ron Paul supporters not showing up in these polls mean the guy raises what all the ten million in -- to a single days. You know and and doesn't seem that doesn't seem to translating his poll numbers the fact is that his people not showing up in these polls is there any hope for him I'm not saying to win but to -- exceeds significantly expectations because we know he has enough money to go all the way to the convention."

" Well I sort of doubt it's going to be teaching and run all known OC code called Carolina hold -- I'm sorry I don't know what I do not."

" Put Dennis Kucinich in the same league as Ron Paul it's our point is -- whether -- get enough votes to take away for someone else maybe go get on top two contenders that's what matters that well you're gonna see him at the convention."

" And and rock pop. He's a brilliant job of using the Internet as ATM sort of focused all of his effort. I'm sort of that one Dave let's -- I forget it get like four million dollars yes that would impress that was guy flocks you live everybody likes to put little gun powder and parliament -- but I'm not sure that indicator of anything -- and he has a small and loyal base. Whether that's -- to -- and I think the problem for someone like Ron Paul is that you have other alternatives you know weird sort of the rebels in the Republican Party can go to vote and so I'm not sure that the fact that he -- that amount of money is much a leading indicator about anything it's our."

" Kerry doesn't it and when Ronnie doesn't it's a big deal but when Ron Paul doesn't everyone dismisses."

" No I I I don't think that -- dismissed in fact he got a lot of press about it. And they said that sort of demonstrates that does have its rather interesting and the vote based and he used the Internet effectively but that's very different from turning out enough voters to real people polls on Election Day awarded drag out enough people at the pocket so I'm not. But the -- in the fact that Ron Paul what is very successful but I think it's sort of -- and won't necessarily translate. Until voters pulling the lever for him or at least enough votes."

" I had that I had to work one Ron Paul reference into the -- beautiful -- and he -- that point 67666860 it will Huckabee triumphal -- prevail what do you think will happen and I in the primaries and who you gonna vote for Toby helped me out if I want to Democrat in the White House -- think -- to vote for."

" Well you know this is the whole question of what's called elect ability and frequently that's the biggest mistake you can eight. Is voting in the primaries for someone who you think is most electable and in fact this is very important criteria that a lot of people used but I'm not sure that makes the most sense but to answer your question. Hillary I think is is probably the most dangerous campaign or in terms of what she would do again very popular. Republicans but I think I'll Obama would be probably a better candidate if you wanted to put your chips are what get any -- Into the White House I think I'd put my money -- Obama just because he doesn't have as much baggage. He doesn't have sort of that he factors that Hillary has in fact he shot himself to be somewhat adept at that he's a rookie in the big league."

" The rookie factors is that is of course that the negative from me the but I like them and I'm trying to imagine Americans watching me Kean versus Hillary and I don't see -- that outcome. I think that her negatives it would take over. And he's very likable John McCain even if you you know disagree with him on many issues like -- And it like to look at the real John McCain dot com website where where people who disagree with him -- his flip plots that are but he's a strong candidate poacher. And when I see him opposite Hillary in my mind. I imagine people who are in who dislike or. Really going out to the apples to make sure he gets an and I test and I have this hope that maybe Iraq. With less baggage could mobilize people who don't want to Republican annoyance but Ellen -- and -- the the contrast between McCain and Obama might even be more glaring. -- a McCain -- makes exactly this is my problem -- botulism supposed to come out screaming and -- at 6 am Hillary Hillary -- the people who -- and can vent on me that's my job of it but I like that I need to vote wisely here and and who do you think I think it is going to be McCain what -- yes and who do you think it. -- talent and the best."

" Well the first thing you have to do is decide -- 2008. Going to be sort of the model of 2002004 where the election was decided by the base or technical back to what was so much more common model. That Mort he independents again -- swayed the election now if you believe that it's going to be the base. In some ways you're better off with Hillary because Hillary probably as stronger connections to the base you know two ethnic. That voters to the unions to the social activist. Court on the democratic side. But if you think that is going to go back to the model that I believe and that is that the independents are going to have more powers and the base in the basis sort of a die hard Republicans and Democrats. I think you're probably better off with with Obama whether it's going to be McCain you know -- you might be Padilla due to many chips on that although certainly right now he's looking a lot better than he was a monster to."

" Mark in Cambridge -- next with Alan O'Bryant senator Bob headline and our guest Toby Berkowitz we have time for one call that for the break. Mark."

" He has now announced I don't know if they've let me know what Bob and inability you'll."

" You let alone just liberal I want him and -- They bring back the manufacturing jobs back to America and they remind China about well appellant."

" Eight -- act Toby who's at the labor platform to attack and the best treat. Well I think."

" There what you want to do is goal -- from the people who support NAFTA globalization but I think you're -- swimming upstream on now one all allowed in Iowa the that has become somewhat of an important issue but I'm not sure that. When we come right down -- election that that's going to be. What -- the majority of voters across our."

" It's pretty had to get away from globalization it at this point and everybody thought and it's at some level the headline I -- in Huckabee also we -- about them on the break holiday breaks over again and you thinking -- it's an exciting race it's wild and wacky even you don't like politics you gotta love these two races both sides of the I'll have a cast Carrick is. I'm telling him -- Hollywood's. Direct script -- could not have to ask these people is a little bit of everything for everyone and we get bought Portland posting here with me today's Republican senator. I've decided and I'm RKO's liberal Labatt and decided we get to strategize together to figure out what to appetite to clarify something. Headed into the break with our guest Toby Berkowitz is still with -- he's the dean of communications at Boston University well -- political strategist. And could not stick with us over the break headed -- the break I said that that thought it would be McCain looking at a Democrat. That he would not on top I want to be privately Clarence Saturday's ten 111 -- and work with coast on himself. I have been predicting for months -- Hillary -- mean Hillary running Hillary. I don't want to back up that I -- be somebody who -- makes British and then -- people dozens and it's -- but I have to -- it's looking more given the endorsements around the country like it will be McCain I was -- manually pull ahead. Toby and I know but -- and both have opinions about this Toby you're telling me don't put too much stock in all those endorsements my prediction might still be right."

" Sure you know again in newspapers don't have the power that they use do. And the real question and that is what's gonna make it yourself fascinating. Will Iowa and New Hampshire. Really determine who the nominees are in the past that's pretty much in the case the question this time I think will be. Can any of the candidates avoid that trap. That finish in Iowa that -- New Hampshire. Appealed directly to the voters use the new media to try to spin their way out of it and I mean that would that would really be a breakthrough because in the past most of the time New Hampshire and Iowa have really set the stage and then the rest of the primaries almost start to collapse after that and I I don't know. This year will go against the grain but because things get so topsy turvy and we've seen that new media and the blogs had situation. Packed in the in the last racer to that maybe this this time things. Be different but I wouldn't bet the farm on that either."

" I think -- should stay with her first intuition Toby I think that Hillary Romney prediction she should stay where they think that's the smart money right now and I think that a lot of this endorsement stuff McCain supposedly picking up momentum all these newspaper endorsements. I really doesn't mean anything I think -- is still pretty strong in the first two decades that would be good for me because I think Hillary can beat him."

" Well -- always pretty scary you know once you get going things look good. The question he is has some of these candidates peak too worldly which is kind of ironic that we're talking literally only two weeks or so. Till till the primaries and told -- caucuses and yet we're seeing as someone TDs and and that could have in fact in the problem Huckabee. That he was maybe three weeks a little early and so that also can sometimes be sort of self fulfilling prophecy both people who have the forward momentum but also say in the case about Giuliani and in particular -- to some degree you know has their momentum installed in sometimes people start believing in polls that. Really I'm not sure -- great predictors at the moment."

" Six and 72666860 a reading the polls he -- was inspiring some presidential passion and you Toby Berkowitz. Dean of communications at the school of Boston University. Gillian does and I'm on a Graham a senator -- Atlantic Toby talk about momentum or is George Herbert walker bush used to call it big -- And the fact is McCain isn't even competing and I was so what you know what happens next weakened by the way the -- forum team will be out in Iowa reporting live next week so that'll be we look forward to that coverage to be in a junket is recall at a the state house will -- year old and a report no and I -- and he's broadcasting live from -- Palatial motel six or something alien -- to Moines Iowa -- but first about ever heard Iowa trip they're call it exactly let's -- that again and I don't ever now but anyway -- McCain comes out of Iowa nothing so -- in a wiz the momentum in the air and he did Kenny. I think -- becomes out of -- little bit of bump that's going to help New Hampshire."

" Well what -- is he goes right to the voters in New Hampshire and that equities. Smoke in Iowa they're actively decide -- the next nominees for the Republicans presidency is going to be. It's going to be up to use smart folks here in New Hampshire Sunday deacons in that fight he and I don't think I don't see Iowa as in the scenes problem at all. Because he took himself out of the at so he really doesn't have anything to lose and the other thing that's going to be sort of curious. You've got to test. Small window between Iowa in entry what title on Thursday. You know have Friday is sort of basket that you have the weekend and he had not circle football games and things like that now all of a sudden it. It's Monday and they'll be blaring headlines and then you know -- Election Day so you don't have a lot of time to sort of inept and at that point."

" We talking about a lot of undecided voters are registered independents that's our if you one of them called. But I also want to hear from people who made up their mind to -- attached already does -- candidate they want to. -- toward the end 67666868. I am now going to have to go home and do a lot of mulling over between Hillary and Obama I didn't think he could pull it up because of his lack of an experience that I am wary about. Her high negatives and I really feel like. Early on endurance and strategizing Toby you're telling me to stay away from that game trying to figure out who can be you know -- just go with your primary got the person you like the best in the primary."

" Well the thing about Hillary's negatives is right off the bat she's starting with about 25 to 30%. Brutal negatives which are the Republican base didn't just write that I mean the real question. Then he is the negatives are independents and Agnes is part of the problem with a lot of appalling that we are seen in his it tends to be sort of pop lie. It tends to be horse race what's really interesting that immediate doesn't always happen the campaigns all we do have a what they called the internal numbers. And that's really what you need to look at -- for any of these candidates are at that sort. 30% to a -- voters can you get them -- to see you anathema. And we're really not -- accurate information but believe me people like Mark and and the people were appalling four oh Bob and for -- For Giuliani they're looking at all those internal numbers and that's the the real fine tune that there are all working -- not just the horse race numbers which can easily shipped five or ten points you know within within a week."

" So we just account or Allen for men and I would encourage all voters potential voters to vote on principle I'm. So Fed up with -- whole media horse race mentality and you know it limits my choices as a voter in it just gives us more of the same and I'm vote on principle this year."

" Well I think to have them vote person for the part you welcome who can -- for the person who you think is the best candidate and the person who. You believe in politically who you'd -- he is sort of the most honest in Italy just go without. If you start to try to do sort of strategic voting you're just gonna burn yourself because what looked like today at. Absolutely another two weeks. All the sudden the wheels can fall off that in in you you waste your vote first someone who bought me the most political tactical sense. So I'd skip the tactical voting really just go with who is the best in -- Terms of their -- their persona because what again and have been important in presidential what once they get elected president. Might be very different from what we're talking about you know who anticipated title Latin when they voted in you know the --"

" now because I think -- is true -- as as it is true for me you'd like to take the top three candidates impolite and a little bit of them in in the ideal candidate -- have an ideal candidate in that race. Welcome in Arlington Europe next with Alan O'Bryant by the Atlanta I guess Toby Berkowitz."

" A morning you know are you doing -- a very knowledgeable about politics -- disposals. Of course it is here and -- or trust the bomb I don't trust -- so I'm just saying it aggressive but -- or or -- the morsels."

" Well you know I'm right thanks for the call on MIP voting equipment because. I doubt I I I'm torn between the two of them and I think he probably has a better message more in line with him I was queried about his inexperience but. Now on hearing I suggest according to the senator the go to my principles. So I'll try to do that in the trust factor you know I think that's -- growing -- of that Amir an anti amnesty and the caller. There's a lot of the candidates that are running we talked about the -- above John Edwards I don't trust John Edwards played Hillary continues to reinvent herself. Especially on foreign policy over this about the smarmy as heaven and little fisticuffs on the break over this why does it dynamics have such a big image problem. I I don't get it -- he bogged down in the hair and makeup in -- image."

" Well I think it's because there seems to be -- out that seems to be a contradiction between his populist preteen. And be a very wealthy and successful trial lawyer and just seen so little to smooth and and so I think."

" Act and any inconsistencies in his voting record to. Well everybody -- and he made a lot of money defending our people but that's what lawyers do they make a lot of money defendant on -- what he come on it's just that he did he took a lot of the proceeds by half."

" I I think a lot of who is just use his image I mean he's just. Perhaps too good looking a little to blow dry Italy and now it's interesting because on the other side you have Mitt Romney. Who you could make the same argument."

" And all and -- certain CEO slanted."

" That's needed in it just tends to -- how he. Sheep that and sell it if you're saying what's the problem with Edwards I I think one thing is. That there is this sort of contradiction between what he preaches and sort of how people perceive him so it might be perception problem. I think that the problem for Edwards he to a lot of voters just consider him last -- news you know leaned in 2004 write about in the interest in my devoted forum. But -- I want something -- I want to move forward but then again -- make that argument on the Republican side yet here you have John McCain. Who's been recycled years later everybody's quite excited to have him back in the --"

" And I am another question about image. How important is -- don't laugh at me here because I think people I go I judge how America it's going to vote by my good friend Nadine and sodas and following in -- stuff in his apparent in his busy. And let's just all the messages at the lessons -- angles that they got cut or group exactly. How important is it she tells me everything whether the Americans going to spend a lot of the holidays -- how they're -- volley in the class from she's ninety attic temperature -- ever -- 64. Okay how it responds to a skinny president. Barack Obama as a skinny guy CBA I'm serious laughing at me -- Toby I've heard people say he looks a little strike out there in the cigarette smoking adds to it."

" You know -- of all the problems that people have with Barack Obama I mean spirited -- is. It is going to be is going to be the deal breaker or an African American with a name Barack Obama I think out of all the litany of problems that I knew he probably can not not lap and -- Justin. I wouldn't stay up that night war."

" I hour right. I did Barea -- people's agent -- player agent experience we've more problem -- I know the rookie to active but it's not so much skiing it was that they thought he looked a little strike out like lack of you know -- primary -- and -- in Iraq now editorial for department. Him when she said strung out I thought she was referring to his admitted drug abuse or use you excuse you have to figure out why a guy one guy in his memories that -- may -- rated NC they didn't don't pick on him for that Toby before -- fighting and bring you into level that's lower than the -- York. Used to do oh want to try to do that I agreed to come on everyone thank you so much for your time in as the race heats up gets closer moves on in a taxi and."

" Thank you. I've been my pleasure what you know we're all going to be so much smarter and -- and January 10 in -- yeah we are looking at. Real art then -- it will selective use clips from -- tell me. I -- about that"