CLIMATE EMERGENCY?

And now -- Forma -- cars show. Many Iraqis here particularly those who have repressed under his regime really feel the need to see some physical or visual proof. That their former dictator is in -- well and truly gone way.

Leo can you won't be very proud so until that dog he will be -- smiling and saying you have liquid I would look good and we will be -- absolutely hang.

One thing that I'm hearing from my sources in the bush administration the United States is not pressuring the Iraqis to carry out this execution. At any particular time the most expensive car on our lot for your garden Howie --

Mr. Tyson you're charged with one count of possession of narcotics drugs. I -- it is gone -- disguise go it prohibitive from drinking alcohol at all beloved -- prohibited from using my children's without a valid prescription. The test positive I -- drug testing failed to report as required to release -- two you can.

You are now college Lawrence.

Where -- where that's how we -- Hole where over 50 feet.

powered car WR KO radio network. Welcome back this is Don Nelson and you could correspond lead in the headlines in the the dominance in the first hour of matters pertaining to Saddam Hussein imminent execution in Iraq. I'm going to do it jump shift in topic the I know that a lot of people want to talk about the issue will get back to the that is to say that. Saddam Hussein in Iraq we'll get back to a later in the program. But I wanted to you know there's going to be life after Saddam Hussein's deaf and I mentioned that there are beginning of the program that there are issues that will confront us going into next year thought might be worth looking at. As we usher out 2006 and usher in 2007. To -- me in the studio now is professor Richard lynch and he is an atmospheric physicist and professor of me urology at MIT. And he is an expert on global warming and that's what we're going to talk about for a little bit. Because it is an issue which has had a long life and it's going to get. Even more traction as it becomes more of a political issue. Professionally and and it welcome to the program thanks for being here on night news -- all right now everybody's heard about our global warming it's become. All right. The almost daily conversation we had a relatively mild winter here. Every time there's a warm day -- says are usually it's global warming people have said. We've heard people say when there's a hot day in the -- without -- can feel that the sun is hotter. Global warming has become a rallying cry also for people who want to claim that what we need is all sorts of research into it -- at government expense and also or also all sorts of controls in terms of regulating what people should or should not do. So let's start with some of the basic questions. Is global warming something which is a happening and beat because of human involvement.

You have to realize the one thing that would be phenomenally unusual. Would be for the temperature of the growth remained constant always changing. So is either getting a bit cold or a bit warmer remember -- talking about tenths of -- degree here when talking about huge changes when you discuss global warming you're talking about a half degrees centigrade over the last century. So you're not talking about anything big. I think the likelihood news it's gotten bitten homer of houses and picked cooler over -- now remember not too long ago. Second question was also mentality -- it I think there's -- no argument for that at all. The closest to an argument is somewhat blues have argued. That they can't think of anything else.

That's hardly compelling really I want to read you something. The New York Times may 211975 against -- Longo 30 years ago. This direct quote. Scientists ponder why world's climate is changing a major cooling. Likely want -- a major cooling widely considered to be inevitable. This was the headline or of of the story in the New York Times in 1975. It turns out over the past hundred years that scares from the newspapers about it's going to warm up it's gonna cool down your Normal gonna cool down. Each time it seems inevitable and then a few years it gets reversed.

Yes I mean and it goes back further in the head of the -- the first which hunts what are witch trials whoever accusing the witches of causing unusual weather. So people who I think when hose maybe they feel a little bit helpless confronted by whether. And have always tried to blame on something.

We're talking with professor Richard -- who is a profession of me urology at MIT. And the subject is global warming because people are calling for all sorts of draconian measures. Carbon dioxide we hear that the reason that there's a global warming problem with -- all sorts of imply catastrophes. He is because of this stuff that we as humans are doing we're spewing carbon dioxide into the year are we spewing -- action and the year of course. We're breathing. We are we is it actually stop breathing I mean -- because her breathing too well we I suppose inhalation should be okay but acceleration I'd be careful about. You know what you're saying is -- CO two is basic to everything that involves oxidation of carpet. Well there it is burning fossil fuel gasoline coal natural gas. While breathing. And so in a way I've always found that controlling CO two must be of bureaucrats dream come true. -- you suddenly your control over life itself. You've raised an interesting point one of the reasons that I remain skeptical about global warming -- she. The people who are embracing the issue. Because if you saying that they -- global warming and it's being done because were throwing things off into the atmosphere because of industry in automobile exhaust its. Behind breathing. That means that you'll that there is -- justification for more political control of course we have exercised yet to regulate this regulate the actual people or advocating that there's a problem. Are also going to benefit by calling for more collective forwarding. That will flow to them that they can regulate more people oh eights.

Simpler than that for a lot of them mean Enron was the largest lobbyist for the Kyoto protocol with the you realize that are not they were going to transform their business into one of trading commission permits. And there -- trillions of dollar news in this invented commodity of permission to emit CO two.

You mentioned the Kyoto protocol I think a lot of people have heard the words but not too many people know the details as it applies to this issue it you know there was a essentially of meeting in real in the early 90s. And they decided that the nations of the world at 200 takes something. To control CO two. A meeting in the late 90s around 96 took place in the Japanese city of Kyoto. And after much squabbling Al Gore came in. Basically engineered an agreement whereby the what were called annex one countries the industrialized world is supposed to. India or China agreed to cut back emissions to levels they were in 1990. And they would do -- by 32. Virtually no one has been able to even do that but right off the bat everyone understood this would have no impact on climate. It is much too little so even though nobody can do it the underlying thought it is will have 30 or 40 more such agreements now. China Anemia or excluded and now they are economies are booming actual tickets well as much and just a little villa China will overtake us and defuse -- and -- We were not signatories to the Kyoto protocol we will Signet two but no America this doesn't mean anything unless the treaty is ratified by the Senate. Also we signed -- but we never you know never -- Clinton never submitted it to the Senate. And that remains case to present.

We're talking with professor Richard lynch and who has a professional mean urology at MIT in an atmosphere physicist. And you -- a lot of about global warming and probably have gotten a feeling that there's consensus on it this program is devoted to the notion that it may not be quite as. As universally accepted as you may have been led to believe but that could Leach into the question. Most of us here only decide that loose global warming in its going to be. -- they're going to be terrible things happening the glaciers are going to -- New York and Boston will be flooded every time there's a storm now it's because of global warming you know if we have a lot of hurricanes is global warming we didn't have many this year -- global warming. They would why is it that there seems to be shall much what appears to be the consensus in the scientific community that global warming is a reality in the French.

Well I think you know you're describing an issue with a lot of -- I mean you're talking about the storms in the sea level rise in the glaciers melting and probably ice breaking up and polar bears and so -- The thought that there is a consensus on all these classics just beggars the imagination. That's impossible. So the question then is is there a consensus on anything. And the out there it is then there is a consensus. And consensus can be wrong but there's a consensus that carbon dioxide has gone out. About 30% since the 19 century.

There's a consensus that the temperature has gone up a few tenths of -- degree but very irregular. So you mention global cooling in the 70s the temperature was going down them for awhile. And it started going up again and these -- global warming unfortunately we didn't hear from Al Gore because he was working on inventing the Internet he was busy at that point that he may have still been in school journalist or whatever. You had that it didn't go quite this far. I think it didn't go quite this far with the science of by the way I mean that's almost as far as consensus goes. There is one additional element namely increasing C O'Toole things. Remaining Hussein should give you some warming so for instance if you doubled CO two. You should get about one degree warming. Now when you get to these predictions of the Euro Friday so. But is generally acknowledged to be based on what I think our model -- The models are overreacting like mad if that is and I think we know why CO two is a minor greenhouse substance the major greenhouse substances of water vapor in clouds. And in the models while on the one hand they do -- terrible job but replicating cloud cover. Things like clouds contributes to amplifying the response to CO two alone and so CO two would give you one degree. But if you model has what are of aprons and clouds kicking in the could --

Full -- let me let me jump -- we have -- plus -- patient bills. We're talking with a professor Richard mentioned from MIT about global warming your thoughts are welcome we're going to take a break on the other side we'll go to telephoned would like to call in. By all means this is unknown scenario to look at how we talk show.

Welcome back this. This is Don Nelson with me in the studio professor Richard Livingston who is a professor of neurology and MIT. And I'm invited phone calls to come and I know a lot of people are caught up in the previous conversation about Iraq. We'll get back to that later on. But for the time being let's talk about global warming. -- go to the telephone lines now our phone number 18774694322. And we go first in this segment to Michael. I'm Michael you are next on the rally car show.

I -- how I got very proud Papa. I don't welcome back from totally violence Amanda. Aren't going to be -- you know. We cannot go back into the -- living CP and play order of world and it's not going to make a single bit of difference. Because state -- goes through its. Although change there it is how microwave it's all -- I mean. Sometimes there was does bombs that our exports by as part of Rockwell. That release that meant portions of -- atmosphere. Volcanoes I mean there's all kinds of things that that happened that we really we don't even really put it -- you know.

Okay like thank you -- well. It up to a point -- eight I think I disagree a little. I mean -- I don't have much doubt -- our emissions are increasing CO two carbon dioxide. But I do agree with you that anything proposed is not going to make much difference to climate and I also agree. That the earth is a system that has so many varieties of behavior that we don't understand. That to jurists stand up and say now we understand it it's all due to us is a little bit pathetic some room.

Michael thank you for the caller we we -- in a little room issue we've talked about CO two which everybody has heard about everybody knows that that's what comes out when you exhale. Why is that a problem I mean if there's more CO two in the atmosphere how does that cause global warming.

You know it's hard to discuss that without getting technical I mean the advocates the -- mrs. say well CO two is a greenhouse gas and this is a blanket that holds that he can. That isn't exactly true but the main thing is a technical properties it absorbs heat radiation and admits he radiation. And so if you increase the amount.

You who.

To give rise to a little bit of warming in the atmosphere. And it's not even clear how that's transmitted to the surface.

Michael thanks for the call this go back to the telephone lines and next on the line we have Toni Toni are on the highly going to show.

Thank you very much and that went on shall I -- welcome back to anyway the pleasurable listening to prepare for many years ago Cambridge -- talk on the subject and he. -- that the cycle -- the -- for example in these periods of the medieval one -- on the balcony people more than it is today. Crop Greenland that armed camp today. Which -- it hit back hard and -- And it is not 80 it's an actually an arm a -- that occurred long or industrialization even dreamed. And unfortunately the media today however with the exception -- but very few. Skeptics like documents in our. Correctly I think suppress. All we hear is one side of the story and I'd be commended for letting the and on -- and that -- I would. Urged the the two words to speak up more idea haven't seen anything in the -- and -- for example in years giving any anything other than them into its tactics the equal.

Okay thanks -- I remember seeing a headline in the Bostian loaded really drove me crazy and had a heat spells -- years ago. And sure enough there on page one because we had a couple of 90 degree days for this question is is a global warming no words to that effect the New York Times this time. Although the didn't say that it was -- First global warming christmas they had a quote from somebody because the sale of coach -- coach in New York was down because whose mild weather and I -- That they the christmas buying season was in the -- they put that quote officially conveyed by implication that this warm weather may be because of global warming. But Tony bridges an interesting point that that we should talk about and that is if they original consensus. Why should we hear so little from people like you may not like you're not respected spokesman in the field it's not like you don't come from an institution automatically. In in sites people to pay attention why do we -- little from you and so much from the people on the other side.

It's actually conscious that some respects I mean. You have lots of people journalist science journalists who under the ages of something called the Metcalf institute to which runs seminars them. Adopted the position that balance is bias. That the regulations we need to Sosa via. The that it would be improper to cover alternate news.

It's finishing as I started smiling as I heard you say that because -- member George Orwell Odeo 1984 remember or several. So that the contradictory motto yes viciously. And and you introduced one that he never thought of that balance is -- or biases that essentially you know it doesn't make any sense it's saying I think it actually makes a little signs it's saying. If you give equal treatment of these it might give someone the impression equal views but they want to say it's 9921 what is it the youth oh. It depends on the issue. If you're saying the temperature has gone up a few tenants of the degree. I think that's consequences infuse society -- Man has increase contribute to the increase of CO two. That's sufficiently strong and sentences if you were to say that the hurricanes are due to man. There you actually get into something -- the majority of people involved so you know if I asked the question. There is global warming and as a crisis -- as the political issue that we superficially hear about we need Al Gore. And he has failed to come and and and do something what would the science behind that science behind that is -- I mean there was a great interview with Al Gore and George Stephanopoulos. And Al Gore was talking about New York underwater all the stuff and sea level rising 304050 feet. And Stephanopoulos went to the consensus document the UN document said that you know only talking about inches. Where did you get this. And chorus and while the scientists don't really know the implication is only he knew he does -- well you know. When you invented the Internet take a few things but I mean the word consensus should always be suspect. Because the issue has too many facets.

Our phone number's 18774694322. The man in the studio with me professor Richard -- and who is a professor mere idea at MIT we invite your questions and comments. Back to the telephone lines now to Brian good afternoon drying on the highly -- Brian you there though Eric you're on the how we gonna show

as -- so. I would just you're mentioning of the beginning of the segment about the fact that there's always been changed and usual but at the constant temperature there -- strikes me that. We're very we hear a lot today about. Theory of evolution it's the papers is consent to steer its finest in not a scientist but. One of these engines that drive that is in effect change that I get evolution species. You know change in -- combined with -- mutation random mutations. What it is in the the most adaptable survive. Look at this issue with all the pairs in the ice cap is now it's got a big part of for the polar bears of the I would say instances upon it is of this type of thing happening actually actual progress process -- we as humans. -- here it is what we try to stop that would try to eight once these over.

Finishing point thank you well EU bring up of very important point I mean for instance the Arctic. Was warmer than it is today the in the 20s and 30s the peak temperature was around 1940. And the polar bears survive that. And indeed according to the Canadian wildlife service the known colonies of polar bears most of thriving. And of the two that are having trouble one is in the region -- is -- it's probably a clue to that he kind of engineered hysteria. That in Gore's movies and inconvenient truth he has to use animations for the polluters to get him struggling to find weeks

he understands that came to my only tie -- evolution the line in the song. All the monkeys -- in the zoo every day you meet quite diffuse there's some around here we've got -- about a minute until we go to will break and and step back for moment how does that whether work why is this -- why is there whether on.

The earth okay mean it's a fair question. And the reason we have weather here in the mid latitudes. Is because the temperature is and decreasing as we go from low latitude -- high latitudes. And two when you have that so called temperature gradient. The flow becomes unstable and breaks into storms like clones anti cyclone arms. And please carrying heat.

Or warm from the style -- this from the north. So let me jump in we'll continue with that we will pick up gradually got without pause again pay some bills. We'll be back this is -- Nelson on the holly car show. Welcome back this is -- we're talking professor Richard lynch and who is a professor mean urology at MIT. And a we're talking about the global warming and really just to finish up a little bit of how well the works in the local back to the telephone lines so. Maybe you can finish up why why we have whether.

Well we have weather because there is a big temperature difference between the polls in the equator. And -- unity just like when you have some fluid flows in a pipe that turns what's called turbulent. Forms Eddie's and the -- start sweeping cold air southward and warm in north toward the interesting thing about it is if you had a warmer world -- reduce that temperature difference. So theoretically we all expect a warmer world would be less stormy and less extreme how does how does the ocean factor into this. Well it moderates temperature change because it has a large heat capacity. But it also has another important aspect. The ocean on -- you know it's very deep and most of it. And there's constantly exchange of peace between the upper and lower layers. So the ocean is not in balance with the surface is as well we have something like the gulfstream. While the gulfstream has slightly different for us because you have the wind blowing across the sea and it's causing the flow. But you have el Nino -- other things. The ocean suddenly changes temperature and that has far more impact on the atmosphere hasn't seemed to move.

Our telephone number 187746943222 the telephone lines to show on good afternoon your on the -- car show.

If they're not our -- professor I can't -- one question I was wondering if they've opening models with the decreasing magnetic field for the -- The amount of votes or radiation that is. It will -- basically -- except through our

interest in question go ahead. In out this deserted tricky question you're asking because our measurements of solar radiation are still. Very limited we've only been measuring -- for at most a couple of decades it's. And as best we can tell it's variations the miscue. And so there's always a big question with that how would it work if it controlled weather and climate. And my own feeling is that's almost as naive as CO two controlling weather climate and it's very unlikely it's one parameter one thing and that is making everything happen but Europe has a magnetic field of the kinds. Well because it has a molten interior. And made up of a lot of iron -- and it -- But to her about sunspots and you know possibly the the that I've even seen correlations between the amount of sun spots and and the who the climate temperature on -- And very often the correlations look Gooden. But correlation is not causality as a special spot news a sunspots. Is simply a dark spot on the sun. Where the temperature is cooler and it's due to a kind of storminess on this

and these have been measured since Galileo you count them like for those not telling Galileo that puts us back into the 17 century -- 1506 islanders. But you know they go through 11 year cycles one of the more amusing correlations between sunspots and Republicans in the US senate. And the correlation looks great several cycles simply because we have elections every six years.

Now hasn't it understands when there are more sunspots or more Republicans apparently -- you know what you've done right now you have given birth to a new conspiracy -- on Hamas -- everything is conspiratorial and now George portions -- Exxon all the others are controlling this alleged right there making more sunspots because the vehicle and other Republicans. And these all your fault of course got cut -- The man who's to blame for this -- conspiracy theory is rigidly instant. Who in another persona as a professional of me urology at MIT has very distinguished atmosphere physicist. Our -- phone number's 18774694322. -- goes back to lunch shall thank you for the college go next to Ted you're on the Holocaust --

good afternoon gentlemen it we talked awhile back and brought up point you were being excessively yet terrorist. The temperature with commoners by comparison the people may have satellites. Not nearly a scream is applied to the record temperature on the Serbs to hear it and now it's not for instance collected very. Particularly uniform horror even rational manner.

I -- I don't disagree with that I think though. Arguing about that causes one to lose track of something very important. No matter how are you measuring an all measurement systems have errors and we're talking about very small changes tenths of the degree. We're arguing about one year would have been the hundredth with a -- more or less than another -- we speak of record breakers. I think the crucial point is we haven't seen more than half the Greek. And we've seen almost what we expect in terms of greenhouse forcing from a doubling of CO two. So -- we've seen is I have to agree it's saying it's probably a small issue. I think a lot of people are acting as though currently we don't have much forcing from -- to which we don't. But it'll get much bigger in the future that isn't true.

At the other thing of course was without someone mentioned about solar activity and particularly them ought dependable -- it's been extremely low number of sunspots and when there -- also in -- ultimately he has significant problems at least in the.

You know in the traditional pictures of climate. We did have the medieval optimum periods warm at least in the north Atlantic region but probably elsewhere in the Middle Ages around the year thousand. And from the 14 century to the 19 century we had a period where it was cold. And it has been observed that this was a period of minimal sunspot activity. And that's the -- under minimum.

This fact of the matter is we're still at this stage we don't know why it was warm in the Middle Ages. We don't know why it was cold in the so called little ice age. And there are some people who are not sure that either of them was global.

Dead thank you for the call let's should continue the telephone calls are going to actually Delores you are on how we -- Russia.

and do my daughter graduated from 19 sides to -- See where. Actually total output my question is on the -- there. Yeah they have he has taken yet but but. It's actually taken it and the -- are yeah. Eric Young to -- because they.

Sure I'd be glad to of those who would not pretend to be an expert on polar bears I first of all find it offensive scientifically. When you take a person to a particular spot in the Arctic. Where they have no old knowledge of the history of the reaction of the biology of the pull the banners of what is even Normal. And you show them something you'd tell them it's horrible. And they are to conclude its due to climate change. The fact of the matter is the article was warmer than it is today in the 20s and 30s up to about 1940. It's also the case according to the Canadians but most communities of polar bears a thriving. And that of the two that are having trouble you were taken to one the other one happens be a place where it's colder than average. So what is a person to make of that I mean it's certainly not evidence for a global climate change. But it is a kind of anecdote which in most sciences they reject I mean in medicine. They give very low status to anecdotal information. Thank you for the call we little time remaining I want to ask you how funding of the children government funding has affected all race on I think it's huge impact. I mean universities as you know have huge administrations they depend on what is called overhead from grants. And the funding under the elder President Bush the father of the present one went from a 170 million a year to something on the order of two to three billion. And you know there's no way minefield -- absorb that increase in funding but it certainly created a huge vested interest. In the at least maintaining that the subject was serious whatever that means.

It and ends up with drawing people into -- and and does it mean also by the way that. -- end up with the results that are going to encourage the government to give them more meanings -- Is there the predisposition to come up with scientific results well that at some of them yes but the worst part of it from my perspective is. It discourages -- finding -- what's going on them because we find out what's going on one way or the other. The funding stops. We've been talking with professor Richard Lindsey and who's a professor meteorologist MI TI guess. Two remaining are questions one issue people want to find out more about fishing gets some balance information where -- they go.

In I hate to speak about balanced information because it's always self proclaimed balanced. I think what I present is balanced and people can email me and -- and then some -- street. Actually for all the flak it's received the competitive enterprise institute website has a minute by minute critique of Gore's book and movie so I suppose you could -- balanced by having Gore's book. And that critique hair and it.

Okay thank you for being with us it's that -- here and get some balance on the other side of the program. The Nobel laureate professor Sheldon lash out by phone we're going to ask. The universe cosmology. Whether we acknowledged how's that different ending -- year this is we -- Asia