Elizabeth Warren is running away with the election. Up 7 points in one poll.

Good morning five organic feed WR gala brought to you by network capital funding corporation New York future are financed. It is a beautiful day out there isn't it it's gorgeous out. It's almost like actually -- an Halloween like to have a -- tennis and I gonna I know it has links you know black clouds but the sun peeking through creepy we've been asking everybody their favorite candy this morning have you noticed any patterns. Everybody loves -- -- -- -- the Reese's peanut butter -- -- on his way back grandmother along the forever and all that was a once she's Kim she's candid as akin to acts like it I like it joining us. -- Dave Kelly -- from Suffolk University he's on a regular basis because. He's the big local poll star and he is a new poll out yesterday on. The race here in Massachusetts the senate race between Scott brown and Elizabeth Warren. And very different we had the UNH -- half hour ago he shows the Scott Brown winning by two points dame has a very different result let's hear a good morning Dave how -- Well and you we're doing great you wanna give us your candy choice is first and don't ask other people this is your opinion it. Dark chocolate OK so any dark charcoal like you won 90% cocoa or an Internet. Hearted about it all right -- -- That's expensive and you never get and the howling candy bag. You never know times have changed you like your premium candy if you go to the right houses. How about your worst candidate. You know you still like Greece disputed by cops but I don't own -- -- currently rejecting -- later life it sounds like a midlife crisis stint I think so -- -- it so tell us about your poll. So we have Elizabeth shortly. We have a list with four minutes 53%. At Scott -- at 46%. With just over point undecided at this late stage. Amazing and what how do you feel about that number anything surprising you the results you're gonna. I noticed two dynamics that shifted from September and number one. Union households. You know that's been sort of -- Scott Brown. Dirty little secret he's always done well -- union households he actually beat Martha Coakley. Among union households and was winning in our September -- union households and that's slept so Warren misleading. This before 46. And that's one major shift in the others among women who are independents. Really. That's a big. That's a big deal because the independent voter blocks is huge browns still leads among women who are independents but it's closing. Com and that has survey and the objectives to round under 60% he needs that wind independence all independents are right. Over sixty for certain he's not he's in the mid high fifties now. And I think the the that women and where independents in the union households are going to. Propel warrant potentially to an historic win next Tuesday here these trends continue again which. But we go. Things can change. But that's what we're seeing at least as of the week out. Now is there a possibility that. The union households are simply afraid because of threats of fines -- work stoppage. To save -- voting for Scott Brown because it's so much union pressure out there -- firefighters are handing out dvds about how great Elizabeth Warren. Is he have you know warrants supporters union reps visiting job sites do you think is a fear factor involved that's an anyway. It could be there could be you know it's sub groups carry a higher margin of error for sure. But I think there was. Maybe not as intense pressure but there was pressure even in September. In the mid September poll it was the other way around and in the fact that it's to let. It is more products so it may be a fear factor or maybe that it's actually working and that union households are shifting from. I noticed that you had a very high count of union households I believe 23%. Of those holding your poll or union households. And the state is under 15% union is that a number that's cause for concern in terms of the results. I don't think so you know I mean the union household can include. Municipal unions you can include trade unions and all and so you know it could be teachers firefighters could be plumber as select electrical workers. In addition to you know service employees and so on and so. I think it's a broader definition. And I I think the numbers right -- I think I think Warren probably is winning. The number assessed 5446. Missing cuts in the ballpark but. Again the major differences that ships from -- comparing apples to apples from the September poll. I certainly a big shift that now are back to women. What was the movements over a longer period of time if you can go back you know give us the last six months or something like that it has have been. Hey -- anyone had periods where there really winning this debate on women overall. Which ships you know and it could shift again certainly. You know he had these Indians got a good job -- -- an age and you know we've disagreed on some polling and although most of the polling is in pretty consistent I think. I think the one thing we agree on -- the overall number of the -- number you know today held its ground number -- Forty in the mid forties. Depending on what -- looking at 45 to 47. We have a debt 46. On it and in terms of dual boot the women component it's it has fluctuated. And I think the most recent ads you know it's ironic because -- think the most recent Arabs called. -- Elizabeth Warren jets saying that you know your vote might be the difference in terms the Supreme Court. And also the composition of the senate. Is almost ironically the slip. The side of what Scott Brown had two years ago which is your vote could be we've just be the 41 vote distributable to -- health care. It's almost a transformation in both elections from votes for brown -- Warren to vote you know your vote. Would be a vote to do bigger things and I think that's kind of what's happening you know army was that warrants it. A couple of years ago I think it was you you you pulled Waltham. As a Bellwether state to see what was gonna happen and -- it was a right media an end. The dude are you gonna do that again this time. You know I think we might we might do both national bellwethers and some of the swing states and we may come back on Monday as we've done in past election years like you indicated. Amman and poll Bellwether areas. You know that. Can be helpful certainly. You know one of the things to think about is the Coakley wins even as bad as the campaign. You know was described by many. She still did get 47% of the vote. And that was kind of a beer minimum only winning really urban areas so I think the thing to look at. On Monday is the areas where background Juan marginally. And to watch those communities to see whether or not Warren -- communities like. You know darkness in Winchester and -- those areas that. Brown ones by a little bit of a margin. And to see whether or not. The same thing happens or whether and on Warren prevails in the areas you know Pittsburgh for example in and other communities. -- -- attribute the disparity in these polls to exactly. Hard to say. That that the polling was pretty. Pretty consistent in terms of the field. -- it -- -- city -- the -- to agree on Rome the round number. And we haven't seen brown crossed 50% in any of the polling. Suffolk poll helps -- crossing 50% -- -- that should be. -- a big mobile -- your challenger you know that's part of the reason why many other people. In Florida pulled up their states in the last Florida because Romney crossed fifty. Consistently. In Florida. And so what you found a challenger and has just -- the suffered -- on the challenger. Process the in the incumbent cannot get to -- -- and hasn't gotten to answer the that's that's an indicator. One of what. Point that I had made two some students recently is that the the Scott Brown's number back in May Day. Was under 50%. And we also pulled -- against the recent Franco. In May Day and he was winning I think by 28 point to something that has had to -- number was only 49. -- -- winning 49 to 21 against someone who was a Democrat who was virtually -- that we are going and he would be you know 5558%. So that's an early warning signal that's an early indicator. That. He needed to get this sort this incumbency number coupled with 50%. He hasn't done that it doesn't mean that things can change in next week. Don't know the impact of the hurricane. I don't know if women who. Are seeing. Today that it. Especially independent women who say they're voting. Four Warren. Could slip back at the end and vote for brown because wholesale change in that component to change the election and it could be. Brown winning or clothes or election but at this point we have to measure what we measure. And it looks like. Women independents at least today. Are focusing on brown in terms of the issues that. I mean focusing on warrants. Based on the issues against -- war has been putting out there. So it's women like me that hold all the cards for the senate race. It's women like you who could make history too you know and I don't know how much of that is part of this but. You know to get over 50% and -- are going to be easy look a 1700000. Votes are going to be needed to win this election. Candidate -- gets to 1700000. Votes. Probably wins. At this you know it could change at this point it looks like Elizabeth Warren gets 2000007 but it may not be. You know and obviously polls are snapshots in time to do the best you can't measure would you measure. And you know and -- on Tuesday. -- Kelly August before you -- we have a taxer who wants to know if you using 2000 may turn out models I know we've talked about this before maybe could address that. Sure absolutely. No I mean we we look at this we look at defenses ships and we look at the population ships and we do sort of a top down simple -- And we look. Back three elections from -- old war in 2000. So we cannot expect gains. The kind of participation especially among young and minority voters that voted in no way. And so. We've adjusted our turnout model from election to election obviously 2000 intent was different this special election. So you go at the numbers within expectation that a certain percentage of Democrats are gonna be showing up correct. Well we've moved we've mirrored the actual registration net access so in the currently rotten. Ballpark it's 361252. Which is 36 Democrats up twelve Republicans. 52. Independent -- -- what -- See you make your whole reflect those percentages I I think I heard. Is named Frank Newport from Gallup yes and I heard him talking and they asked him about how they do it on their polls and he said we don't. Assign any models we just do the poll did I hear that correctly. Yeah well it's different in the national because there are some states for example. That have different rules for the election for example in. New Hampshire you don't. Have to be registered voter. To vote you could actually go to poll try to capture registered that -- up and vote. In North Dakota for example they don't -- voter rolls registration -- there is no look if you. Global North Dakota there is no such thing as volatile western North Dakota. So it's hard to the department. Preferences in Ohio and Virginia for example people are required to register by party. So you have to make you you know best estimates based on a PPQ built just ample frame. And we try to build the sample frame as is. Where more cheaper faster -- because we believe. For example when you're thinking of party and independent who lives in Dover is vastly different than an independent who lives in Jamaica Plain. In terms of the profile and so we try to build -- party sample frame. Under the umbrella of beat geography. My tanks full all how different. People aren't. In different regions of the state. And so that's worked out well for us others don't don't. Don't build there -- simple frames with in geography date field. They -- cross tabulation status straight up across the board. In terms of the -- in gender and political party affiliation and so once we create baskets geographically. And then within those baskets we. Odyssey treat them all a separate polls in -- did tell you August Suffolk University thank you sir for taking out to Phyllis sent. And I once again the Suffolk poll showing Scott -- losing to was warned by seven percentage points.