David Paleologis discusses the current political races

We -- joined now by they -- illegal overseas the polls their first Suffolk University. And that we're just gonna check in with him to see what OK what kind of polling he's he's up to these days. David thanks for being with us here Nancy hasn't the primary you know in New Hampshire we did pretty well in the primary. So what it -- where -- -- -- going to be -- -- -- fault let's -- just gonna limit our -- to the swing states you know we've we've just finished this whole. It's Nash a couple of unlikely voters that. Unlikely -- USA today. Was the only -- and it's kind. For obvious reasons. And but it was a telling poll because we found that more people who were not voting are Obama supporters or Democrats it was a disproportionate. -- Democrats taking a walk. Yeah you know they can walk I mean but it or something but you know these people who never vote any way or they just decided about a third were not registered and two thirds were registered but not likely. But they just decided that it did they voted to await. Yes yeah about 60% and by two to one margin they supported Barack Obama's of these people who. Like Barack Obama dislike Mitt Romney so there's no persuasion necessary if you're Barack Obama necessarily. His problem is -- turned off. Because of the disconnect the economy. They don't like the democratic or Republican Party that like the third or multiple -- yet. And they are taking a walk and so there are two problems for Barack Obama number one the switches the people who go from Obama or Romney who gave. Barack Obama shot in 2008. Right but this group the second group the people were leaving. And maybe not voting for Mitt Romney but -- not voting for Barack Obama and that's potentially bigger problem. And where at what the regions are these we just. Are these fine Americans concentrated well as a national poll we -- it's cosponsored by USA today was a front page story -- -- basically said. You know the demographics. Were you know these people younger. By the -- mission less educated. Lower income higher minority. And so it took us a lot. Of cellphones. -- it calls to complete disarray and in twice the time. So you're so now you now you say you've narrowed down that you told me this off -- -- -- at the top five swing states in terms of likely voters yet. Pipes so you think there's only five swing states that's right Florida Florida being one obviously Ohio. -- Virginia. Wisconsin and Colorado. -- and then there are others that have autism -- like Michigan like Pennsylvania we think those of Obama New Hampshire we think it's Obama. Really yet about a New Mexico but we also think North Carolina Iowa Romney. Indian of course so. And we had this gets really tricky. Is. Two of those states. Have a third party candidate. That may. Changed the outcome. Of this national election in Colorado you've -- Gary Johnson's polling in the high single digits. Eight or 9%. And we think Colorado will be one -- two point margin between Obama and Romney. Gary Johnson's getting -- or 9% right now. And in Virginia. -- is due would you consider what liberty and it was and it was military uses designation but -- -- -- libertarian in news. Well and it is a question. Of a -- question actually in. On that now so that potentially could sold if he's a good sign enough votes from -- -- he's a pot here he's gonna take votes away from Barack Obama people gonna come out just to vote on that issue to appease libertarian though he made it might take votes away from. Probably what -- Right and -- Virginia you've got Virgil. Virgil good the former democratic congressman we -- English -- that's where we're at what is he running he's in he's in our constitution party. And he's in high single digits also in Virginia and just it just the mystery is this is it concentrated in his old congressional district. Yes but. He or is also a state senator -- you know -- for 24 years plus. A congressman -- he's a native son. And we again only think Virginia is going to be -- 12 point margin but he has this person you know -- good as it potentially controls the yeah I could I mean I could really hurt Romney I mean there's no there's no downside Barack -- -- -- what is now. And and potentially less aggressive in Colorado now the ballot situation has been finalized and the Virginia attorney general. Is moving to knock off Virgil -- on the ballot because they have a 101000 good Republicans and we ask -- coaches dollars about who to grow up. They have a they have a 101000 signature requirement in Virginia but they also have a 400 per district. -- climate and they're trying to say that he's not here you know he has a commitment that -- is the deadline passed for getting signatures. Yeah I believe I mean he found 90000 signatures -- -- -- But it's ridiculous -- -- -- a lot of help from the Barack Obama organization I hope I mean I you know for. You know the if these people really that Chicago politics with that they would want him on the ballot. And if they would that organized then you have -- -- and issues that'll but that's kind of up in the year because again every state has different -- ballot requirements. -- -- for the gym also good is knocked off then is that it's really than than Colorado is kind of hostile -- as a third party can -- yes I mean. The last I checked there were fifteen plus candidates who. -- -- In Colorado again that they haven't met the file threshold Colorado so we. Okay now wise you're also going to be pulling on the was with -- Scott Brown -- right yes. Now what was the last poll -- -- we had 4847. Brown. Now do you buy you saw this a recent poll last week that the PPP that's that Democrat pulling off that island North Carolina. You what you think Scott Brown has a five point lead. I'm not sure you know you have a margin of error it's different methodology it is the it's the automated. Methodology we have had some good polls treaty and some of them that have been off. Holes and taken in the dead of summer I think people have to mention that in there when looking at all the polling data which is why this -- -- start. Mid September and carry right through November -- speaking to what David K we will list the Suffolk University pollster vehemently and pole qualified states five toss -- states want to be able last toss up states Florida Virginia Ohio Wisconsin. And a Colorado. And now. If you with a bat right now with which that on president. It's really close the problem with for Barack Obama I think and it looks pretty good for Mitt Romney for -- I'm seeing and I think after the -- after next week. You may see -- cross the 50% threshold in May be up for five points going into the Democratic Convention. The the problem for Barack Obama is I think when you look at all the polls and the job approval number at the job approval numbers always under fifty. It's 47 to 49. And what that tells me is that as the known quantity of majority of people among likely voters disapprove. And if that's the case that I think the Obama campaign realizes. That it's it's a an unlikely win if you will. And so what can be a strategy will be will be to reach into this hole that we did the unlikely voter. Pool of voters take a slice from that and bring it into the likely voter pool I think we'll likely voter models that you see not only suffix but all of them. Showed that as you get to the -- move the the very likely voters which is where we will be this fall it's going to be more difficult. For Barack Obama because you have a lot sought support -- people who. Will not vote November. But it but it seems to be there all the though the Obama campaign is is doing in terms of campaigning as the dust up Mitt Romney -- -- destroyed that that -- take votes. Wait for Mitt Romney I mean they're not giving anyone a reason to actually vote for them. So how're they gonna get the -- how they gonna get the people but who weren't planning to vote to change their minds come back the the precincts. Well as a potential boomerang effect because you you you know when you go negative -- when when the negativity happens. Mitt Romney's gonna count to a negative thing you can have this negative. War going on. But what's the byproduct of negative advertising people get turned off if that happens. More Democrats. Proportionately according to -- unlikely survey and more former Obama voters are gonna get turned off. And that could boomerang and work against Barack Obama. Opulence would it -- of the Massachusetts now you know away as well as we all know it. Scott Scott Brown was elected and unique situation will never be a situation like that again are -- times. Oh how much of a lead you think Barack Obama has in Massachusetts. Right now. Over twenty points and won't do it over -- -- -- in our poll he was 66 favorable. I I think you know if if it's a ten point margin which I don't think it will be. Matt Ryan is gonna win a national election if it right at close of Massachusetts I I've seen polls showing fifteen. In -- some discussion as to how high in the authorities are well you know we'll we'll Mitt Romney get to the -- 4243%. Threshold. It's hard to say yeah but in terms of the ground in December saying I'm just saying how much of how much does Scott Brown. How much of -- Scioscia -- well -- -- considering the top of the ticket is typical Leo he -- it's one out of every four Obama voters and he's getting one out of every four Obama voters as vote for brown currently. It that's always it's always he's at right now he's getting the job done that's right well. 42% of the likely voters of Massachusetts will vote straight democratic ticket 32% will vote straight Republican ticket that's. 74%. The remaining quarter. We'll split. We'll split and apparently in our polling. Brown is getting one out of every war. Obama voters if that goes to one out of five -- basically the only get to eighteen to 20%. Of the Obama voters to let. He's gonna have an uphill fight in a tough time. So would you bet on right now for that race god. You know it's it's it literally is too close to call them. The danger for for Scott Brown -- if you ask me that a month ago I would say it's it's brown and lock. But the danger for for for brown is what we call about -- them and head to head number. And that number has not been 50% all year -- in February even when he was leading -- -- was only at 49. And in May when he was leading by when he was at 48. But in that may pole he was old he was only 49 against -- -- to Franco. In day yeah now he's the incumbent state senator you'd think he'd be at 55. Or 52. And so that's that's why I think he's he's he's he's being more. More focused and is in his ads and that's and an -- by his own admission he knows that. The debates will be key for him and also for Warren. It's it's just amazing that that -- so I can't believe I know you're not here to talk about just the politics in general I can't I can't believe that after all she's been -- she's still race -- you believe that in -- of the state of the union can still be it race we've got three point one million people voting. In November and that. You know that's going to a clips of what who voted in in 2010 and we we did the poll in in January 2010 that. That was the first one that -- -- from beating Martha Coakley but only two plus million people voted you're looking at another. 800000 it was the that was the only and it was the only thing on the back not only and Joseph L Kennedy got 1% of the vote. Sometimes straws don't get the job cuts that's just a all right David nearly all of us we appreciate your being with us and hope though that you're on the fairly regularly in the in the fall happens it is time -- time goes on and so that's that's very it's it's very interest me. So well for Florida Virginia Colorado Wisconsin and Ohio watch out for those third party candidates and Colorado and Virginia beyond that and think and the in the that attorney general and Virginia -- gonna -- -- to good I don't know I don't know what this Gary Johnson the pot here. Like he's I'm sorry I don't callable libertarians that he's the candidate of pot party. He's the he's the -- man -- and the it is this is nobody voting for disease libertarians. Have all right OK David thanks for being with us we appreciate it.