Obama's scorched Earth plan. Major Garrett breaks down the polls

Wow. Eight Tanzania. Every week this time we're joined by Major Garrett from the -- All journal brought to us by the car guys car buying made easy Major Garrett good morning use our. Good morning you could see came in all excited and today and you'll never guess what he was excited about he saw you on television last night. And I said what's so you always on TV what -- say about that -- said he's just so good. And you are talking about the polls say he's a we have talked about them to major about the new polls because Israeli interest in -- and there. So what's your take -- on the one hand. There are headlines saying the Bane attacks are working. And on the other hand -- it's that the Bain attacks -- damaging. Obama as much as they're damaging met what's the story. Both are true and what we don't know and I try to be humble about these strings or try to. Understand that there is plenty I don't know about where this campaign is sending. And we don't know it is. What is secure -- in respect of the damage being under Romney and to Obama and which will matter more come late October poker being damaged there's no question about that. I thought this senior Romney advisor last night looking at this in the old on the -- which -- listeners Wall Street Journal NBC poll. Our coalition or not it is regarded as nearly the gold standard in public polling -- apple campaigned in both political parties. And they advised Romney says well what has gone on in the last six weeks could not much has changed. I think that's an -- way of looking at -- there's been a lot of fire exchange between Obama and Romney and their campaigns. But yet a poll numbers. In the large. Sense remains somewhat static while that's happening these early. Protect and internally is well run these negatives have gone up and sold the presence. Also less likable than they were fortified weeks ago. So the problem that challenges on the surface nothing has changed but that doesn't mean that beneath the surface there haven't been big changes so attitudinal changes could be taking place. That migrate onto one of the candidates come Election Day. That's right air and Chuck Todd and I won't. Chris Matthews show hardball last night and -- Interpretation of these numbers here's the economic news class for five weeks has been -- Romney should be catapulting compared to. Of Obama. I'm not quite so I'm not so sure about that. I think what typically happens in challenger racers against a generally likable incumbent. These people holds steady they keep evaluating the challenger. While they look. Which continued to percent to disappointment at the incumbent but don't beat incumbent until late in the game in other words they don't any decision it's not our decision. It's not my decision time for evaluation. And the Obama campaign would like to see Romney's. -- here is much higher merely just ticked up a little bit and actually do look at the data in the Wall Street Journal NBC poll. Both without about the same in their negatives and -- to people have that they're just -- -- both so. It took control on Romney but as. Obama was trading at all on Monday he was taking its hole and so trading down his own -- -- -- own popularity. In exchange for trying to do. -- -- image but Mitt Romney. And the marchers and is always gonna be the largest question -- scrapes. And is he Obama campaign's successful disqualifying army -- -- dissatisfaction on the economic. -- in this country to become so pronouncement. That all Romney has to be -- minimally acceptable alternative and still win. But isn't isn't that time period over for the White House they've had their chance to destroy Romney because now. -- overseas. Posing as the international guy people get to see him in an international role and he'll be highlighting the fact. That one of his big credentials in this races he's with the he's the Olympic guy and then he's gonna come back and he's gonna have this convention. End of the summer is now going to change it seems to me. In -- -- starting to present the positive side of himself the fact of the matter is I think most Americans can't support mid yet. One like you said they haven't gotten the did the decision making point yet but also they don't really know much about him yet. They don't know much about it and I think you're right that you need beta very important point and -- people think about where this is where this trade is -- that well recently turned to an -- show. Not so what's happening now what's gonna happen is you have. Governor rob -- and Iran are going to London asking in the Olympics global -- people of this solid. Exceptionally well and pulling stewardship of the -- collapsing -- gains and Salt Lake in 2002. Then goes under Israel goes to Poland. So this does will be like Obama in 2008 I am I guarantee you it'll be tracked the opposite that probably no big Berlin rallies you will be sober quiet. And reflective of what Romney want to convey -- their sense of seriousness and strengthen US foreign policy. Not sort of teenage. European media about a new American political superstar. Then he comes back choose his running mate penny goes to campus you have about three and a half weeks. A sustained. Projection. Of around the message but doesn't have to deal with the back and forth. And that sort of gnawing on each other's -- the campaigns and gone to the last bye weeks so can be a different atmosphere placed -- need to be. Harder to win and if you're the Obama campaign. I think you've the other underwent what you just -- is. The Obama campaign has to take stock in the last five weeks because they really were trying. To and it's not knock on he had this race. Can you down several tanks and there's nothing in the coal -- the suggestion can take -- down several cards. The straight and it remained constant and steady which I think in we look back at this period of time in October and November. May be significant because it may look to -- band that run the true -- And absorbed. The talk this was brutal attack near Obama campaign and remains can't. Why I keep having this image of -- -- but don't go Mohammed Ali rope a doping absorbing early blows. Two weaken his opponent to try to trick him into weakening himself by over fighting. And then -- long slog of the race still to come. With Obama possessing certain more powerful -- firepower so ice scene I try not you know to check myself to make sure I don't get carried away. But it seems to me that if you started off talking about both sides and how they're both getting damaged. And I was singing about how. Well if I'm the Obama campaign I have no choice I use the last couple months to try to destroy the reputation in the image of Mitt Romney and that's my only shot. At getting reelected I've got to make him look like he's not. I know appropriate. Choice whereas -- has all their toys he could be running for president he simply deciding. To follow a strategy and that strategy is rope a -- during this early period. Wait till he can spend his huge financial advantage after the convention. And then just kicked the crap out of Obama for overseeing the worst took four years in a generation. And I don't see how -- loses this race. I thought they would you Obama campaign believes about. The rest of the race and what they've achieved so far and what we're looking at and sorting through and constructing this conversation been national polling data and what they're concerned about what -- most curious about is not national polling data. I'm like billions favorability in swing states what do we what do these attacks mean no Iowa they need in Virginia what you -- -- Colorado what's been -- New Mexico. Near Obama campaign whether it's true or not and will know eventually we can't know now all -- knows there representations to we have that they believe. These attacks where it matters most the swing states that they have to win. To secure an Electoral College victory and win reelection. Are clicking on more damage on Monday and are reflected in these national poll that is true. It could be true but still I don't you know if you're running for reelection in this economy when the economy is the deciding factor in presidential elections so. You were leading by four points and some state and you're gonna be excited. -- a four point gonna evaporate in the blink of an -- can and not Major Garrett. It's yeah and especially when you look at some of the southern data in the Wall Street Journal NBC -- for example one month ago. 35% of those surveyed said the economy will get better this month 27%. Slowed down eight points. We'll get worse. 25%. Social in this month's poll of 5%. From a month ago. So interpretations. Not just what economy is now put over the next twelve months to twelve months well Ryan and you -- all an act would get thirteen point shares to. In that sense of depression or lack of optimism about the next twelve months from the US economy I think. That is the kind those are the kind of numbers that holds a near lethal threat. The president and Israel. Is that amongst among the major. -- OK so get a little. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- For the reality to set and they had the president over the winter months talking about how the economy's coming back was turned around still long way to go but. Optimism is the name of the game and then. Out of a few months a bad economy it takes before people realize that that message from the president over the winter isn't the accurate message and now there's no sign. That there's got to be good economic news just continued bad news through the election I agree with you I don't it's it to me on paper. There's no way to lose this election for a Mitt Romney of course it there could be something that takes place in a debate or you know one of those cathartic moments where everybody understands and flash -- we have to reelect the president. But it's hard to imagine that happening to. Greg eventually you're cheer -- two point one thing I'm most curious about and I'm gonna go to Boston I should be near. You're a city in the next week and have the social about this stuff by Ellis thank god to find out from the Romney folks you know. Are already holding back. -- the narrative cordial the right time or you never going to actually stitched together a comprehensive. Narrative for Mitt Romney for a campaign or you just gonna relied. On the downdraft of bad economic news to win the presidency I think they do that will be a very original strategy because every American president I read about and certainly every champion -- Robert. Has great power all personal narrative that get stitches together eight. Personal experience political experience and a larger. More grandiose vision for the country there's a vision for -- country that Romney -- here to do but it is he had bogeys besides I don't want to call it national security yes lot of tough economics. -- -- they're -- still by his own definition. Somewhat -- Did the convention plays so that and you roll that out later or do you just rely on the downdraft check out Obama -- -- on the -- Cordelia you always have to tell a story. Because people are moved by stories and unmoved by anything else and by the way what else what better chance or they gonna have to show us how that works are probably gonna turn around open up this back show -- where the batteries go. And you know give us a little insight into the machinery. Are these people eager to be Turkey to Arkansas with any sort of passion. Or -- or -- you -- -- what he did as governor or why. There's more talk about this financing is not comfortable talking about being with -- history arrogantly Obama campaign is gonna continue to pour it on those. As long hairs Romney reflexively. Signaled that he considers those things. -- himself to be somewhat. Out of balance while -- Obama campaign's gonna continue your ticket those areas -- a -- to get more comfortable in his own narrative I'm our ministers about it we're gonna happen. Yeah I -- a feeling they're gonna wallpaper of the convention with 1040 forms. -- those subtle they're Wal-Mart whole tax return thing on some major when he -- that -- time. I I don't haven't been nailed down yet could you know work out and when I'm there I'll when -- Please do we have to make a day it'd be great to -- if we enjoy Narayanan every week Major Garrett National Journal thank you sir. We'll talk CN next week let's talk about this -- agree or disagree. With any of our assessments major -- mind. In terms of what's going on with this campaign 617. 2666860. Do you feel convinced. That that Barack Obama will be reelected I'd love to hear the other side of the story because I wanna. I was wanna catch myself on not getting too emotionally involved here stay tuned right now stay here to 680 double.