The First Look - June 15th, 2012

-- -- Your truck books -- your portfolio. It's time for the financial exchange -- Armstrong from Wall Street -- yours street Mario Armstrong has got you covered. Here's the financial exchange where -- very Armstrong's. Holy smokes we had just -- great day on Wall Street it is safe. To look at your portfolio's today because the Dow yesterday up -- hundreds and quite surprising that have to tie it. Big surprise to -- off a 155. Points yesterday June then NASDAQ up seventeen the S&P 500 up fourteen Andy. Other index the that Russell 2000 index talk about periodically a nine point it was a broad based rally. Yeah I know in I'm still a little shocked my head tilted to decide this morning. Dow futures up 24 S&P 500 up sixty NASDAQ futures -- up all the green. Oil is even up thirteen cents but it's at 88404. And in gold is up five dollar sixty cents to 1625. Some you know the unemployment claims. That came in those rose. What happened Berry Y eight you know why were we by the -- that. Well here's what's going on in this is just all through the rumor mill but the Wall Street trades on -- after member of that. The trade on the speculation -- so if there's rumors of something bad happening stocks will sell law. If there's a rumor of something really good happening stocks will rally what happened yesterday afternoon at about 1 o'clock there -- rumors that the ECB the European Central Bank. Is putting together in emergency fund in east this election in Greece goes the wrong way. The result of that huge rally in stocks yesterday continuing into this morning as a matter of fact. This morning at about 630. The futures were up 55 points they have hold back considerably -- since then. And the reason they pulled back is we got dismal economic data from empire manufacturing I don't know peacock that are not. 8:30 this morning that comes in at 2.3. The expectation have been thirteen point five so even though to your point you. That unemployment report yesterday morning at 830 via a bad empire manufacturing report this morning and it any third. What's happening is you're getting these these -- the rumor mill is is is. Working overtime and beer in it does kind of make sense they have to shore up these banks because what's going on June is there is -- run on the banks. Greek citizens Spanish citizens Italian citizens. Are running to their banks they're taking out every penny that they have and their holding euros or their transferring the money to -- German. So you have the Indy can't have that that's like what happened here in 2008 and remember. In in Europe they don't have FDIC insurance so imagine and he just think about it from your percent -- it -- to go back to 2008. Member -- Scared we all were looking out in the fourth 2000 and imagine that you don't have FDIC insurance would you do. What would you do in the fall 2000 anyway it looked like the world was coming to an -- it -- the -- the mattress. People goal would be 101000 announcement I mean that's that's what would have happened. It had this it had our banking system and allowed him. -- people in 2008 June were concerned. That their Bank of America ATM cards would be rejected they were concerned. That there Citibank cards would be rejected they were concerned. That their deposits that were not insured in the insurance level was only a 100000 dollars back in the states if they were concerned that their money would evaporate that it would be gone. That same situation going on in Europe right now and ECB rallying together waiting to the last minute as they seem to always do IKEA. I seem to always wait to the last minute. But that's the reason we saw this big market rally yesterday and that's why it's continuing into today. Some people are suggesting and washed Larry Kudlow last night he used very -- he said look. Don't buy stocks today wait until next week we're gonna talk to him later in the show -- got a lot of really good money managers coming on today. That Tim -- coming on from not to habit that Kevin ray and Dino he's over it block when the best. Fund companies in the world right Kevin or Indians up with this in the next segment we're gonna talk to him. About his perspective on the market but. -- -- -- That's that's that's how nervous these markets are right now it lot of concerned about what's going on cuts specifically. As a relates to Europe and made it all seems to boil backfield every morning. It really does and an OK so Greece is having his huge election on Sunday and up -- people telling us wait until next week to buying anything. I how could this election affect us here in the United States in the end. You know Ali here's here's the the exposure that we have here in the United States. Europe is a pretty big trading partner of ours. It if they go down if the eurozone. Disband if you if they go into massive recession remember right now June 18 of the seventeen countries in the eurozone are in recession today. Before there's any major problem so if you have Greece expelled or they elect to withdraw from the eurozone. If you have Spain and Italy fail if gave a run on their banks can't be supported. That that's gonna force Europe in to a fairly significant recession what is the ramifications that it decreases our GDP. Probably a tenth 22 tenths of 1% it slows down the American economy. -- JPB I think we might be spending too much time on Europe. In that yes it's an important aspect of our economy but if they completely evaporated it would reduce our gross domestic product by one. -- and we need that going into an election. And a debt ceiling independently -- side of the aisle you're on. Romney needs it -- -- designated yes absolutely right so you mentioned empire manufacturing came in a data came in at about 8:30 this morning why is this important Barry. Well it's an it's an example of of the -- at the New York's empire state is the New York State region for manufacturing it's a big area. And if it has a slowdown in manufacturing which clearly it has had a significant slowdown. And that's bad it's bad for unemployment is bad for job creation it's bad for our overall economy the fact that they are slowing down. Is it is an indicator. That it's -- it's what's considered a leading economic indicator. And did the fact that it's slowing down is very bad that's why stocks -- back that's why they went for 55 in the black to only twenty and I bet by the tone time the opening bell rings June yeah you won't have much rally at all. All right so coming up in about two or three minutes we've got industrial production capacity utilization date all coming in it at 955 that Michigan State sediment coming in as well. Let's talk about gas prices -- could lowered gas prices that we see them go down any further stimulate the economy. He could and and that's you know the knee you could see. -- late yesterday I read a report from a very well respected. Investment bank suggesting that. Oil prices per barrel which currently at the you'd just quoted an 84 dollars -- -- that they're suggesting it could go as low as fifty dollars a barrel very quickly. If that happens that has a stimulating effect because everybody not everybody pays tax -- not everybody. It is is impacted by -- the tax rates go up -- down because not half the country is in pain and help right but. Every. Is dependent on gasoline prices gasoline prices impact how much you pay for your groceries gasoline prices impact with the -- go on vacation. Gasoline prices it costs restaurant I mean it just Permian leaving entire economy so if oil prices drop. To a fifty dollar level that hasn't highly stimulative effect on our economy and frankly takes the Fed out of the equation fed does have to do anything. That can just move decide hey I I want to share can make sure can we talk. How can we talk we shall we talk. Boomerang kids I thought in honor of Father's Day I would share this stat cake is your dad I'm I'm I'm a dad times five to many and it is to -- -- -- -- boomerang kids have reached record levels this year. They are up to 20%. Of males between the ages of 25 and thirty force if you take. A hundred men like a radar produce and that he's he has yet again Gloria. 20% of his friends have moved hole that's that society and that's up from 14% and four in the year 2005. There were. 14%. Of males between the ages 25 and 34 living -- that number today. 20% now young men looking back now. And that's what's the age category for that again 25 to 34 and for women the number is up from 8% in 2005 -- home. Up to 10% now same age -- same -- channel same demographic. I'm thinking that you can even go older than that. And you would find a startling statistics. Yet I mean -- it to. From divorce and god knows what else is financial hardship you lose your job sometimes you have no choice so those of you who have moved back home. You'd better get your folks are really nice -- your father. This bothers they really begins today in it's it's a weekend event and it should be and it goes it concludes on Monday morning at about. Not now complaining that Mother's Day it was a weekend thing I -- that was a bad thing yes okay so why should why is this a good thing -- back. And -- talk about payback I I'm I'm expecting to be flowered winners showered with gifts. In and steals and. I've got big plans for this big play OK so what are you expecting any what kind of a gift to many did you ask for something -- I have five children but it's it's five gets there and I figured my wife should get me get in the my dog. Should also. -- about you know put the dog. -- his presence is again that's it that's what they think. That's you know that -- and -- -- you -- that you having a dog is it is again I haven't I did get -- get something small but I I haven't got enemy like the real deal got him yet so you want some suggestions yes. Yes I think I know where we could get -- -- techsters listeners techsters they'll give you some get some easy so absolutely and what's your budget tells you give us your budget. It doesn't listen I know this is out to see this is embarrassing. My budget is probably it ticket you know seven to five. That's that's a good fifty maximum -- -- maximum of fifty to 75 yeah -- -- folks here yet to help us on June needs a gift suggestion for her body and her father. Put up with a lot and he raised three boys. Until this five kids four I boys and myself and you're kind of like in voice. You're here with unite. Mean you are you -- your brother I never have. At least that. Just like you're guys it's like cabinet of the guy cleaning it it's like none of the got. Lies -- she's tough she's tough she's a tough pride not. It was a tough brought permit for that looks like a guy right and a known that your your very attractive they David. June needs help in finding a gift for her father was a very nice man. Former and retired police officer so if you would help us out her budget seems to be in that fifty to 75 dollar range are text number is 68680. And -- need some advice as to which she gets a bad for our next Barry 68680 is the text number. Up next this is going to be a really good interview never had a month before his name's Kevin Randy you know he's the managing director. The fundamental equity division at black rock and old -- reminding me. -- you'll tell -- we have a gas card to give away folks I even went with it seems that I. We can't let you gotta be the tenth texture of the more got excuse me Paula mortgage debt -- 68680. Wait you hear the gas pump bell. -- cute utes and what time would that be. I can't say to -- happiness. The -- yelled at this morning of the producer. He's taken a huge hit talked about he can't talk about well we can't give them a heads up and Alex that even after we ring DCD get a -- -- have to be on your toes with these radio guys have surrounded by radio. People imagine if we told them everything we complain about it. -- anyway Kevin -- note this could be -- -- -- need to stay with us Kevin -- -- -- from black -- is up next on the financial. Your tune into the environment it's. On the WR --