Would you let your son join the Boy Scouts?

Although he had indeed good morning welcome back to the top of Dutch -- being brought to -- Network capital funding corporation you all future finance. -- Todd has. Taken the day -- fan can Kerrigan in here in the studio having a ball cam it's great to have you aboard it could be -- thanks so much for having me and I version of sound off today is going to be -- interview with Dave Palin logos the preeminent renowned holster from Suffolk University channel seven. And our interview with tape payload -- logos is being brought to you buy that car guys. Carbine made it easy Dave Taylor -- thanks and welcome back the WRKO. My day. Hey -- how I'm good sir it's nice to talk to you yes. So she's here -- -- we have fascinated I think everybody in Massachusetts is aware rather than many have fascinated by. The dynamics of this Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren race. Controversies over the last few weeks at least about Elizabeth Warren's claim to claim of certain heritage and who did it in when they do and -- what purpose that kind of stuff to tell us what's going on what would the results of the poll. And what's the interesting stuff kind of inside the guts of the poll. Well it's a doozy this is going to come right down the wire would. The poll shows this dark brown leads but by one point 48%. To 47%. Just 5% are undecided at this point. That's a part I can't get a lot of days and 5% have you ever seen. Sets a low number for undecided this fire out in a race. No I have not as a matter of fact we did the -- February I talked 11% tumble was. Lo and I think what's happened is people are really all right I mean people who were voting for brown no they're voting for brown. This high intensity in the same on it was a war side so. You know. Twenty million dollars there however. Much money is going to be spent will only 5% of votes are just ridiculous as an idea of what. The margin is in this poll this 1% Argentina in votes. This would be like at the end of the campaign total votes. Winner 1550000. -- 1000515. Down. Hello Aaron well look at this this is an up all night kind of which are used to have to do before computers and -- called. But this is gonna be won at least as you see it now and is as a poll results tell us. We have going to be up all night and exciting election night. Absolutely did I got to ask you this you know obviously people are aware of the controversy about a claimed 132. At Cherokee heritage. You know some newspapers and gonna talk radio station to having a field day with this because it opens up. What I guess most people would think is a little bit of a can of worms that was something embarrassing for Elizabeth -- Yemenite mentioned that we were surprised when we saw you up polls showing that this thing is close would just what -- thought. You know Scott by three or four maybe Scott at the moment by five or six. Whoa what -- -- -- -- ability has gone I would yeah if nothing else that would states in what's really going on. Well here's what I think happened. In the poll kind of shows that. I'm Elizabeth Warren's unfavorable did go a lot since February went up five points and I think that a lot of that was due to this native Americans -- -- Scott front unfavorable did not go up so they want that negative and I think what -- Happened was the war campaign made a decision to go no comment no comment no comment about his native Americans flap. For a week to week in and up in the -- strategy was let's blasts TV. All over the state and extensive TV by a featured Barack Obama went to 62 favorable 32 unfavorable. And let's trying to route out and pick up -- favorable. The ratings -- did co -- the favorable rating went up eight. So there was a net positive. And you know I think what a lot of people looked at that first question are you aware we had 72% aware of this issue out. If you look at western mass Tom. The awareness from Worcester County west was only 55%. Now you know working and affiliation which it'll certainly no doubt adults Tom Ludlow and and and from the rural suburban communities so western mass they don't get channel 75 Fox25. You know -- -- NEC and in the radio dissipates in the heat -- and they readership of the globe and herald dissipates so. You'll you know our our job is to measure all likely -- all parts or all of the state and I think in this area I think it's become a regional thing as well. Amazing stuff so I got to ask as I listened to that if it you know it's houses if you have a little bit of an insight into. What the Warren camps rebuttal strategy was IE don't try to read about it just dried -- drown it out with noise -- commercials I should say. Can they keep that goal and I mean the resource is the had to keep the Bob Bob and up. And doesn't this issue linger anyways so that when let's say cameras. Moderating the first of two or three of these senatorial debates she brings it up and says ms. Warren has a pretty you know you claim to this this and -- in the easiest for these universities. Doesn't that -- reignite the whole storm. It's potentially at that actually could happen to remember at the applause a snapshot in time and these are in the likely voters were interviewing. Some locals think she told the truth. You know it's split on whether she benefited by listing itself as a minority. All of that is based on will be available information that. Likely voters have -- -- -- doubt if there's other information that's out there that's more damaging. Certainly will be measured out at that point you -- given the amount of information that bit that. Is out there and obviously if you know there's a -- party of a brown committee has additional information and that will reveal something different obviously voters will respond and react accordingly measure that. Okay Dave so help us understand this then that this next thing Scott Brown elected beats Martha Coakley in a special election January a couple of years back it's I don't have to tell -- what the January election means it's not much. This year presidential. Election big big turnout lots of interest even though this state is. Just about a slam -- for President Obama. How -- -- then how do you hole about this and how to Scott Brown. To survive what will probably be an avalanche of a turn out that was not turning out in those numbers in January of a special election. Well he needs to. We're in the same proportions. Of votes that he won in twenty chance that we know that. It's 5950. -- had an additional 850 or 900000 voters that will be. -- potentially younger than it was in the mid term. Less white than there was in the mid term 2010 elections so those -- the demographics that we picked up and are. On November sample frame it was a little bit different for the January. Twenty -- simple -- itself. That the but the goal is going to be the same I mean he he needs to get as much. He -- needs to get as much as he can among Democrats win big among Republicans and then he needs. -- about the kinds of margins among independents if he doesn't. If -- if he only wins independence. You know 5545. Or 6040. That -- so there's she's the next US senate and write the. Yeah I think it in the in our last poll -- twenty tan. The dead brown. Which is what we're which abruptly price war. He was winning 65 birdie among independents in this hole he was winning 6035. -- little bit less. And of course the margin was last a lot of it depends on what happens of independence. Well absolutely absolutely amazing you know the thing about Scott Brown -- I think we've seen over and over is he's. In the home stretch he's quite he's quite can't keep in that campaign is a very -- earlier approach over seventy and he does have fallen to a kind of stereotypical. Box and how -- You're absolutely right we looked at the favorability in this in this uphold 68% went back to the last -- -- Britain for the twenty term election is payroll is 57%. Don't he had been given anything up tables or table went up a little bit as most incumbents. But there -- a couple of variables out there number one. What's going to be the impact of recent Franco if she's on the ballot issue can -- as the sports collectibles in which he does let alienate some independent voters out you know you're also the possibility of close election what if I think six or seven. People have taken out nomination papers to run for US senator's independence. Now I don't know for anybody to most papers and but if you have an independent on the ballot. That's going to potentially move things around within one point race now an independent candidate yeah Joseph L Kennedy. The -- 1% of the ball it in here and there are and so a third party candidate potentially -- from what you managed to this -- This is -- this is just amazing stuff David you bring so much insight you mentioned a moment or two ago about younger vote is probably greater number this time around the last time. Minority -- urban voters as well. Did you polls show anything that surprised things. Or informative about Scott brown and urban a minority vote is because. I think he's made an effort there and I think he continues to make an effort I'm just wondering is it an effort with side with the results of that dividends or is it an effort with no result. No I think you know he's getting its -- again this upsets on. Title game. -- and area are. And you know the error rates are higher because they're so upset so. You know what we're we're looking -- for example in Suffolk County was getting 29%. Warren was getting 67%. You know Boston is very heavily democratic got probably the right number. You know minority voters are breaking it's about to -- -- to Warren probably right number two minority in -- powerful. Includes all minorities because combine their small subset that I would be black Hispanic Asian -- Native Americans -- unit. Yeah yeah now I have I noticed you hesitation over that's -- I -- I'll I. But don't look at it. Well you know I found interesting was crossover now we looked at Obama voters want this war. Obama voters people -- -- to vote for Barack Obama are also voting to Scott Brown. Really -- so. You've got you've gotten nearly 25% -- Obama look this is why not only Elizabeth Warren has. This has put Barack Obama in -- -- -- but so was Scott Brown I think to one of Scott Brown's earlier advertising yeah. Brock Obama in his yet so. You know -- coattails effect will play into this. Let's talk about another set of coattails then Mitt Romney is on the ballot I think we can concede that point that at this point admit was a former governor. And you know his head and has been out on the campaign trail for trail pro violence seems to be Phelan is -- he's got to -- legs knocked out. Is it any. Effect positive or negative otherwise. On now on Scott Brown -- V you know Mitt Romney has -- hell does he pulled Scott Porter. Yeah actually saying. I'm Mitt Romney Romney's favorable unfavorable view it as as it was when he was leaving as governor -- upside down 36 favorable 54% on your wall so if you're you know you despite much that's now you -- distance yourself from not only Mitt Romney but some of the extreme factions of the Republican Party because people think of Scott Brown is an independent and that's. That's that is a threat did that though we still this entire polls. An interesting thing too that if you're we've got a Republican who's trying to distance himself from another Republican almost all -- -- -- -- this thing this this is really amazing. I have been impressed Dave I wonder and I India and you don't -- kind of editorial comment -- you know you do this scientifically which is why it's always so so good and proves to be so valid. I'm I've been impressed by Elizabeth -- -- we talked about Scott is like ability his campaign style he's good -- always been good. And we love to have him on the show but she's no slouch on the campaign trail. No you know edit edit. It resonates reacted and you know in in open ended questions you know what sort sort of the first word or phrase that you think when you hear. Elizabeth Warren and you know many of the response responses were Smart well educated. -- -- excellent and I like -- Works of people committed and so on and that's -- Scott Brown like on the independent. I. I can trust them. You know so you've got. You've got on the one hand -- with Elizabeth Warren. Qualities that are rooted in education passionate commitment with and with the Scott Brown independence. Results. You know and trust so it's it's a fascinating it's fascinating race the poll. Alleged I have one last question let's ago maybe Kim has a thought too as well just before you -- of -- And it's this you know last time around I remember fairly late in the process. Some of the national democratic groups got involved. Try to paint Scott Brown is this kind of cave man particularly on pro choice and women's issues and -- Like the grimace -- most most -- voting -- ever heard some you know frightening music and everything else. And it seems to me to have a he really boomerang effect you know that that this is gonna be effective and I think it actually. Hurt them do you have any sense that there's a risk for either side Scott side or -- -- side. Of national groups coming in and do try to do that whether that the messages the voters of Massachusetts become repulsed and take out the -- polish nation well. He hit you -- great great point because the racist 4847. Now you know and if people listening. Put yourself and Scott Brown don't start Brownstein warrantless have been warned to what do you do you. Three points from fifty to Scott Brown you two points -- fifty within the margin of error. Do you go negative -- reach out and get debt to a three extra percent. Do you you know. -- target. How do you approach debates and opposition research. You know do you pursued this native American if -- Scott Brown do you answer finally it's to put bring closure to ridiculous work you know these -- its strategic question their. Vatican -- this race and you're absolutely right going negatives. Does have a boomerang. Actor and you know it's it's happened in many campaigns in the past. Independence room. There's snapped back with independence if they think that it's over the top. So it's a very fine line and I think the fact that it's close. May keep third parties out in all on both campaigns they say look it's this close the best and. Didn't do all these polls and do them so well but I am fascinated by yacht comment that this is a great one to pull on and that you -- the scientists. I'm fascinated by this and so we'll continue to stay in touch. And at him and I've bought both want to wish you and your family great great Memorial Day -- you've given us a lot of time and tons of information so while we love every moment of it. I.