Rob Morgan, Fulcrum Securities, on the Investing Climate
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Jonathan Cheng, WSJJonathan Cheng, WSJ
point to -- Is this part of what's being orchestrated by the Federal Reserve you know we've had 0% interest rates now going on five years. Is it finally is is what's happening here I've seen it 88 and where people say youIt raises you know pushes up the S&P 500 pushes up the Dow Jones Industrial Average . What you and I look at our for a one case we feel more confident we spend more money and that creates a virtuous cycle. That's the hope and it -- the wealth effect and some people say it's been five years we haven't really seen the effects but you could argue that we are starting just yet in the housing market -- starting this Viet. You know with hiring a little bit. But. We don't have a lot of -- There's a school of thought though Jonathan that the Federal Reserve shouldn't be acting in that capacity in terms of what you -- there. It -- when I drop and I studied the -
Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute
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and 2000 and African American family thought their -- I about a Eric Anderson in comparison to white Stanley who -- that there was well all out by -- and. Widely again widely disparate deal because -
Warren Mosler discusses Deflation
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Would do what is your analysis tell you we will see for oil prices between now and the end of the year. Does that are we gonna decline and it that's an attack brake force. Itchief economist -- -- is it if it's daunting. To consider that oil prices are sat by like a handful people. It really isn't he didn't say it with such calm and ten cent certainty I -
What's Up On Wall Street - Deb Borchardt, The Street
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is the big. And had a -- -- medical medicinal Canada for cancer patients And I if you watched Showtime's weeds. At the end of the reason they had that whole like legal marijuana for cancer patients and minds of. If she got a John and I do remember that. In fact. Play us out there at the company coming out this week and they have a product and they are expected to start to turn a profit. They have not. -- making money inspected and losing millions that there are expected to make a profit and they. Most of their drugs or pain drugs for cancer patients which act McConnell just did is that still good thing yeah but I think that Allen has really becoming interesting. He irreversible felony. It is going to give BI and asked why. And that's why I like it seek him Harris she's ready now went down play -- -- kind of IE yeah now I it's not a it's not a big deal at 68 million but I just being well liked -- that I'll I'd like to these stories of drug companies that help. Cancer patients and I like pat. You know they are expected to start to turn a profit and then and then not part of
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You know June this morning between 637. The futures are up I think Europe as much as about 75 points. And I'm looking around now we've given it all back like where we're in -- of terror to what is going on. I put my seatbelt on here because I'm getting in -- car sick and bounce and bounce and all over the place up and down these hills Dow futures now down two points. NASDAQ up three S&P down two and it goes up and down gold is down three dollars and cents. You've got oil trading up 63 cents and 9541. City do that ride your bike to work today. -- I didn't did I wrote yesterday when home luncheon route now kind of crazy. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Will be that they are our next guest is -- rob Morgan he's the chief investment strategist at fulcrum securities rob welcome to the show -- do this morning. Very much sell well I was doing great up until about half an hour ago you know index -- -- futures turn negative as it let me ask you some yea your down their fulcrum it is this thing and get worse -- is is this correction that we're down 500 points now I think maybe 600 on the Dow. How much -- does again at at all. Well Perry we and that really bad as saying that it the first quarter movements stocks was too far too fast and we've been calling for consolidation which really weak head. For the collapsed. Two and a half months now we've wee bit and on yes. He 500 we've been in this thirteenth fifteen at 14100 trading range and now now we broke below the right. And that we we feel the -- very oversold condition we think that that PE ratios are very cheap to -- get some good support stocks and a and we feel like we have we do have a chance to look to bounce back back towards the upper that it -- So I think I'm interpreting and rob what you're saying is that this is in fact a buying opportunity right now. Yeah I I would say excelled. The stocks stocks that basically the price is rove wrote so fast that. The first quarter that earnings -- the chance to catch up. And and so -- we've essentially seen. A sideways market although a lot of you know -- -- -- were alluding to a good. It it seems like a roller coaster. But but yet if I do think it it's a bit of a picture. Rob ADD is that this is an Obama. Victory baked in the stock price is right now when you look at the Dow and the S&P it is the stock market assuming that Obama gets reelected. I I would say so I think you know these. Read the media poll. I agree I I think he's I think it's baked in June thinks I'm nuts she she takes all know -- gonna win but. I think the stock market is assuming Obama gets reelected. I you know that that this. Whatever whatever that the stock market in general I think -- When it assumes for any poll then whoever's in the lead is gonna win yup and again I I I think it's I think it's baked. As that does that mean he's going to win now it doesn't mean point that but I do think that -- and stock. I I have a theory and -- a salary and I managed money I provide it and I also assume Obama's -- a obtain victory. And around here that's somewhat unpopular so what I tell clients -- is. That we we prepare for the worst and hope for the best. But right now we are preparing the least I -- -- -- the way I manage money generally robbed the way I'm managing money is I'm anticipating him getting reelected. Because. The. Well that and that's very true and I and I can understand what that with your audience that would be unpopular. But but yeah I mean that the seems to be the case. Yes the plan accordingly hate let me ask you. The last time I talk to you you were overweight financials you had the JPMorgan fiasco lot of concern many investors are saying -- while JPMorgan's in trouble. What's going on at Wells Fargo what's going on at city what's going -- all the other big banks. Are you still long financials given what's going on at JPMorgan. That we are blocked an area absolutely that we we think that that's the JPMorgan. Gaps that should call it is is that company specific. Now not the same time though the balance sheet for for the big banks they're not completely fixture that -- -- this has been. The cheapest sector for some time. But but you set -- -- overweight recently. But has that feel like that the technical improvement we've seen in in the banking sector all the financial sector even given this fiasco. Is telling you know -- stocks to anticipate things that's telling us this balance -- are probably going to be by and large text. By the end of this year or early next site you know it it if you know what to two steps forward one step back process and I think that. JPMorgan has just one of those one step back that says company specific. All right let let me ask you about the bond market has last night -- showing what an exciting life by live. I was flicking between. Watch in the devils and Rangers hockey game and watch and Bloomberg and I saw. A stacked come across the screen said Mitsubishi which is a big Japanese corporation they issued corporate bonds tenure corporate bonds at one point early percent. Our ten year treasuries at 178. What are your economists telling you at fulcrum in terms of interest rates can. Can interest rates can attain your treasury mirror the Japanese treasury and go to ninety basis points. You know -- -- I think that. What the Japanese interest rates -- reflection of what's happened in the Japanese economy of the last twenty years since it's really been -- on the economy for for a generation and and the reason for that is when they when they began to have their problems so long ago. Japanese. Banks didn't recognize their bad assets quickly enough for the government -- Including the Central Bank didn't take steps that steps I think the key difference here. Is that our banks. Did recognizes that assets quickly and we and we get ahead of the Fed doing the QE program that we had the government doing as stimulus plan at all -- -- 2008 need to know works you know it -- it seems like we're trudging along and we might be repeating -- the -- that Japan I don't think our economy is and therefore I don't think our our ten year yields. Will will get. Get and why I just don't believe it or we're gonna work taxpayer. All right well we will watch and will that will bring you back to ask unit in a weaker to rob thank you very much for joining us appreciate your time. Rob Morgan call from securities joining us today on the financial exchange he's using it as a buying -- he -- -- really yes and again he's an institutional.
