Major Garrett from the National Journal talks Obama's election chances

He had he was on CBS this morning so we had to defer a few minutes he's been joined us now he's in insurance and that is great and it's all brought to you by the key guys. -- by made easy. Hello Major Garrett. Think more -- I suggest fresh from television you sound great and will say yet that you look great as well. Why thank you Chris thanks so I know you don't -- -- but I do appreciate you saying. Okay well you're right about that he doesn't mean. I I. So it works anyway that's -- -- he's a politician majors so he. He knows that stuff works so it we've been having a fascinating time here tracing everything going on in the country whether it's. Scott Brown's race against Elizabeth Warren who still struggling to get out from under her. Indian heritage right on to election night last night and Dick Lugar losing in Indiana. We'll be losing in Indiana the mayor of Milwaukee winning the current democratic primary in Wisconsin -- North Carolina -- Obama kind of -- had to -- within a point of each other in swing states so the widened that you think is most. Telling that you draw the most information from as you look -- appearance of the crystal ball -- Well it's not they're winning in Wisconsin is a big story because -- the most important election for November. The Wisconsin recall election of governor Scott Walker. It's now been determined and I. Telling -- that is going to be. The prelude in every respect organizationally. Money wise advertising. For the national election and whatever happened it was constant. This could dramatically and not affect and influence beat. Seriously as an index for either party. So -- here alive I just wanna remind people that this is from going back a year plus. When there was that they outrage -- was on the capital was overrun with union protesters. Upset over the pull back. Of collective bargaining rights there and now there's been a recall. All of the governor Scott Walker and that election the primary election was yesterday so he now has his democratic opponent the -- Milwaukee. Indians four weeks plus a few days. The election is taken by Solomon built all the union machinery of the country is going to be there with all the money -- can Muster Scott Walker on the Republican side has raised 25 million dollars. -- in the last year and a few months. Yes and it will be epic and also both sides. Everything and seventeen other kitchen sinks into this -- And whoever prevails is going to have a tremendous burst of momentum I would actually say -- is going to be. But it it rarely is in a political year fascinating -- gonna have a recall election Wisconsin. And you can have a ruling the Supreme Court on the health care law and -- let escape from a Republican perspective they wind blows. There will be a supercharged beneath the Romney campaign -- -- seen in this entire process of Republicans. Lewis now they are -- -- walker loose for separately on the health care law. There will be a tremendous downdraft and under Joba needs to run a campaign Republicans I think will feel demoralized. And the exact same things -- -- Democrats -- in June as a very pivotal month in ways it is. Almost never been. What does go anywhere I don't look at it this -- this election out Wisconsin if I'm right on this this is a rematch of the lot you know walk career against this guy Barrett right. -- not by will walker award when he can he has the best Republican turnout and a and the most depressed. Democratic turnout model was cut in history -- million people sign petition signatures ever recall election. This think this election is fully joined everyone went concert knows about it. No -- hiding under a rock concert what happened what they think everyone has engaged. And it's gonna be a Donnybrook. Is it possible that. No matter what happens with the result in the vote in Wisconsin that one side is damaged by the process for example if unions. Are focusing so much money. Right now they're guy has 800000 dollars. And their running yes -- 25 million so they're gonna have to pump 25 million dollar since their twenty million whatever the number is. Does that somehow distract them money wise and energy wise from the national fight and hurt the president. Well look it Democrats still windy we'll have plowed a tremendous amount of money into Wisconsin and we're very you discernible result we will not knock off the governor -- -- knock out a couple of state senators. There -- recall elections earlier this year. Or a couple of state senator a Republican -- lost the Republicans held a majority. In the state senate. Democrats really do need to beat walker to come out of this with all the money that they raise all the money they spent. Producing something of value if they lose. It will have not only waste a lot of time a tremendous amount of energy and money and the iron rule of politics is. Money spent can't be spent the second time okay. It's money wasted if you don't win. So that would be the same on both sides if Apollo -- And I remember this earlier that the Democrats -- only 25 minutes. I mean. The reason Governor Walker needs sorted by name is because. Other negative publicity and the trouble in the states set in motion by his pension reform decisions OK you've got to counterbalance all that with money the Democrats already have made very it's going to be at 48 point 7% right now this morning. Without spending any money it's going to be an incredibly tight race so they don't want to -- the Daily Mail it right. I think Wisconsin is enormously important in the entire matrix in the political campaign season this year and -- Obama -- numbers with all the army are real and it's a very tight race but could be determined by Wisconsin but it's going to be future coaches. It's is it intriguing. On any level for you Major Garrett that it's such a close race between Romney and the president when Mitt is. Really just beginning his campaign and has just been through months of for brutal primary. Wouldn't this be the time that the president would be sitting on a meter ten point lead. He should be there's no question about it Jimmy Carter was sitting on a five point lead over Ronald Reagan at this -- campaign. And G. He obviously lost and lost lopsided lead to Reagan. Obamas like ability numbers very -- his approval numbers. Low in comparison to those like ability numbers -- a big gap for the president on Democrats let's go to the White House they're not concerned about that. They say electability -- are not sure that's true. I think there is a disquieting. Separation for the president elect ability and approval is the tools they need to get higher and steadily higher if you want to put this race away. At last week's job numbers -- good I don't think they're gonna get a better and the president -- forward to me is is virtually Paper. Well what is the word we we could be worse than that what if it becomes an emblem of just how off base he has. Well it it. I've talked to several Democrats who are not certain. That are willing to bet that Ford won't even make it to the convention. What we -- we -- certainly in -- you and I are in -- on the the like -- thing that can -- a lot if you've got -- normal economy going to be miserable economy and that I think it you know as you pointed out. The jobs issue help us understand the significance of the Lou guy thing -- guy was. Very popularly elected just six years ago Indiana I think is set for the most got a red statin is probably going to be in the Romney column. Is is this something that we can draw our lesson from. Well -- stolen a terrible campaign. -- buy a house in the state you represent yet. Breaks -- clean up your residency. Pay attention to your state and -- an aggressive campaign remember we have -- Our actual real life experience of contrast with senator Lugar senator Orrin hatch between the senate nearly as well possibly longer ignore that that senator Lugar. He got -- state party convention in -- so wide because you got. All I have occurred in years ago so what happened to his colleague Robert Bennett did not wanna be -- by the Tea Party. Organized state level and mainstream Republicans shall but the convention. Is -- ever run properties. Almost certain to win that run -- he's a survivor John McCain. Instead of primary opponent two years ago ran a very aggressive campaigns -- -- -- billion dollars changes positions. I'm much more conservative much more hardcore a lot of fundamental issues and he wants -- can democracy can be done. Which you can't be in different and you can't be a non resident and you can't be. Completely. Analysts say hostile. But there was an underlying sense Lucas thought look my approach to politics. Is the only way to go and anything that as an alternative to that it's more partisan. Is by definition -- sure well that was that was. Glaring into the prevailing political wins and that's -- you lose by twelve point. So that just a little bit defeat here fuel handle ammunition to the Obama people that the Republican -- becoming more anymore. Extreme. More and mall right wing and other phrases that they what -- Or they won't stable tried that this is an isolated case but it wouldn't do what it does do is it takes the senate seat. But Lugar have been nominated he was gonna win now until dollars and democratic challenger -- -- -- can -- -- -- -- we -- -- Dick Lugar and make at a competitive race I'm not so certain but I know this Republicans are let's. Convinced and persuaded they can win that seat today than they worry. Well it from automatic to they went from automatic to a normal race right to -- joke all yeah. And -- lastly North Carolina critical swing state in the presidential election voted yesterday. For a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in the state well how does that play and a national politics. Well it cup which it just shows that North Carolina remains. A net net conservative state it was a surprise victory for. Venerable on the 2008 you hit by the narrowest of margins less I think and 30000 votes. I would know. Be willing to bet there -- Virtually no chance to do -- North Carolina 2000 and with the Indiana and exactly the same category Indiana North Carolina are gone. They were frosting on the cake skeptics are going to be so similarly brought in 2012. But Obama doesn't it Indiana and North Carolina he can win easily without those two Q and what -- and he can't win the battle -- He also mountain west and Florida and once -- able to rest -- industrial midwest so a member. Obama's numbers -- tough. There's no question about that the economy has -- and furthermore as to victory. For all. And that's because of this shift with Hispanic voters in the. That's -- the demographics and the voting behavior. For. Presidential elections starting in 1992 remember the average winter electoral votes for Democrats would in the presidency. -- about 350 electoral votes the average for. Republicans about the 74. Republican -- and Democrats win big Democrat his muscles according muscles and our country in 1992 and presidential campaigns have favored Democrats -- republic. Major give us 32 Jim mentioned the industrial midwest US thirty seconds on Michigan Romney has ties there and there have been have been miserable. In terms of their economy and unemployment the last several ideas is there a chance for the Republicans in that state. No I don't think so and look I understand what Mitt Romney is saying you should take some credit for the auto bailout because he doesn't make an argument he just loses that Andy loses Michigan. He loses -- -- -- I would as the -- I don't think the Romney campaign. Ought to fight more credibly. I think it's -- stretch and went to everyone on late night television making fun of view -- claiming credit for the auto bailout you got a significant problem. Major Garrett a National Journal always good having you here to -- squeezing us into. I can't thank you are well done -- I will talk more coming up Thomas -- -- Aaliyah Aaliyah Major Garrett has been brought you by the -- guys -- I made easy Tom and Todd WRKO.