Bloomberg's Tim Homan on the Jobs Report

Good morning and welcome back to the financial exchange very Armstrong in June night we are joined I believe if we haven't yet so we're very close but. Unilaterally do a quick market update your -- it's not pretty but you know this is reality today dubbed a 104 points NASDAQ down 47 S&P 500 is down fifteen tenured US sitting still at one point 90 gold is up nine dollars forty cents oil trading down would love when that happens. Two dollars and 51 cents to 100 dollars two cents a barrel there you go Ari what Tim Bowman is a reporter over Bloomberg News. Tim welcome to the show are you doing today. -- you know everybody this morning at 830. -- and took a look at the unemployment report we are all disappointed by it but nobody these nobody I saw reported with the use excellence can you tell us what the -- six number was. -- it was fourteen point 5%. For the month of April which is saying that it was. Back in March and was actually in that number come down. But he announced over the past few months. What it what does the use six represented wide doesn't receive more publicity. Read that you'd stick is also noted the under employment rate and that includes people who'd. Part time job. And would prefer full time position and -- -- the people who want to work if given up looking at me as they become discouraged. And I mean. It -- admitted it publicly reported numbers in the report of the department labor. This besides the highlight the other figure and wait a minute and it was -- it might not. Even as much publicity because it usually in the in the higher than they've done is -- -- in the regular unemployment rate. Would we studied the great depression and we hear about unemployment rates of 25 and 30%. Did they publish the use six number back then there was the high unemployment rate even higher than what's being reported. Be it unemployment rate that we. -- but now. Our broken down into categories and it is those records over the back in 1948. Completely at figures are the under 100 back. The depression era that it'd be it stated there. Probably higher than -- the regular unemployment rate was. What about participation rate would what is the labor participation rate today say compared to maybe six years ago. Read the -- actually that get this past month. And it's now at the lowest level in December of 1981. And that not encouraging. About policy makers economists and -- because what it means that has issue rate measures the the share of working age people that are in the labor court for the more people that. Drop out of the labor or more the participation rate as down. Let's let's go through that again because that's a shocking statistic you're telling me that. The labor participation rate hasn't been this bad since December of 1981 that's that's 31 years ago. That's right and that is a lot of people are trying comparisons. Between the bombers reelection bid and won it that Reagan -- and -- again it is the only president and what -- too. It's been reelected with an unemployment rate above it and it's about as -- a bullet and that would unemployment rate. That eight point one it's going to be difficult or Obama it is trying to overcome that and our own. And Reagan did. Why why are the predictions for unemployment so inaccurate notoriously so I mean when you when you look at the in dissipated. Jobless claims numbers on Thursday they are often wrong. And often revised and when you look at predictions for the -- -- the monthly claims number I think remote than most the numbers I was seeing for predictions were running about a 160000. You know thereof by 3040%. Read the that was the content. We did there was an economist I was so we have Bloomberg survey economists believe. We surveyed about 85 and then -- the -- And there was one actually got it right on the money in terms of the -- game which -- under 151000. And at several of that accurately. Forecast the unemployment rate. Yet in the Southern Union and the reason why it really difficult. Is because you know we -- and in a month like April accommodated. If -- and partly. Difficult because we usually happy Easter holiday and that. And there's a lot of hier dean and then but when you know our if he's no workers around the Easter holiday and because teacher comes in different time. Each year is the kind of all during the survey week and that it doesn't. So they can really it was sort of a good headaches or that are not -- about. What do you think in the in the coming months I think most people are gonna make fair election decision in their voting decisions by Labor Day. You know so that means you have the may June July and August reports. What are the anticipated numbers for those four months. Well a lot of economists there is some about limiting and sort of waiting the attitude because. In Margaret in this year is somewhat similar to the previous two years. In that we had strong jobs and economic growth in the first month via going to hit sort of a smaller soft patch during the bring. A lot of it -- to went out there you know where the economy's in a better position this year to withstand. It is. Lowdown. Most of the protections are or acceleration in job and -- operative and a -- That would bowed well for the president's reelection bid. All right well Tim I appreciate your time thanks very much for joining us. Go to Tim -- joining us from Bloomberg News in New York June and giving us his perspective it just it's always a surprise to me you know the the those numbers are never what we expect that -- -- on the unemployment side. And you know what going back to that Larry Kudlow said earlier which I I was sort of surprised -- that really not was the number of people. Filing claims for Social Security disability insurance has increased double and that taxing. That system -- you know it has --