Zillow's Chief Economist Stan Humphries on Homeownership being at the lowest levels in 15 years

The stock market has now been opened for 62 minutes and 27 seconds unite -- and numbers look at today at a -- partying like it's 1999. Barry it's up 79 points NASDAQ up 32 S&P 500 up twelve. Ten -- US treasury at one point 938 that's a slight uptick gold it's down two dollars seventy cents oil trading down eleven cents at one old. War 76 a barrel are right well our next guest is doctor Stan Humphries from zillow. He is the chief economist over and -- giving us an update on the real estate market doctor welcome to the show Daria -- More -- it could say I'm wrote we recently got data from Kay -- their home index. What what can we learn from that release of data that occurred last week. Well the V home values were generally down actually. One which was. Which is not surprising. And indeed. I was actually February data that we got Philip released a bit later putted from march actually a little bit more an -- action march. -- the multitude prepared remarks is actually the large increase we've seen him. I really is 2006 -- was deposited -- -- -- prices are still falling actually -- markets are seeing some stabilization crisis to Boston. We're also seeing normally doctor -- homeownership this is kind of receding I mean it got as high as what 70%. Of Americans own a home would -- Eight years ago. Right yet that the back to that support up to just over about 69 point two percent was -- homeownership rate. Which should know pretty great what is the -- wit what's a healthy number for homeownership. Well below from average over the past thirty years about 6465%. So article on people and it. It's you do in the crisis that the numbers down to 65%. Which was reported. The past few days. But really that's just getting back into normal numbers and and very likely get in the the foreclosure crisis of work right now on the housing market we're gonna go as a kid and or lower supports 65 right now. We're probably had done 6463 report out recession and are over. Would that take -- what next year before we get to that 64%. It's likely that that number -- bottom. Publicly thirteenth -- fourteen. Because that's really. It's a consequence. We have to let all the foreclosures. That are gonna happen to play out that number really -- nets are still a lot foreclosures between even while prices stabilize. Closure. In the next two years. So does that mean we're at the bottom for prices now or is a bottom for house prices coming in 20:14 -- trying to put the two together. In this rocky did this homeownership number in price home prices. And you know make a lot of people are listening to programs say well gee should I buy in 2012 I should I bought in 2011 -- the bottom going to be 2014. Right yet what it and of course the answer to that it is very illiquid and it national and we think at home values are gonna bottom like this year early part of -- their team. But a lot of markets actually art shows signs and substantial stabilization to port of Miami Phoenix. And actually seeing several more than six months now pretty robust depreciation and the ought to market we're currently forecasting over the next twelve months is gonna rise modestly. Under 1% of the year but that's better -- ball. Number I bought him a 20% from -- so. Why are bigger than Boston market stabilizes it inventory is it unemployment would with stats go into your determination that the Boston market has stabilized. The Boston this stabilization Boston market is really looking at one that the trends and the -- on bags themselves. So hold that they're down about 20% from Egypt if you look at the month we Trent lot for the Boston now as Boston metro an up Boston's city boss that is actually do it. -- about a metro oval overall but the Boston metro. -- Really been -- saying you know -- it seems -- -- -- so much -- for the past really six to nine months. Which we used to believe that. We are seeing some import levels -- to force -- towards that market. And it -- -- nationwide it is. You know are modestly inching up -- erupted -- -- -- about -- to 10% from last year's of those all seem to combine choose. Create a picture where. Supply is no longer overwhelming demand is much was previously. You know one thing that doesn't make sense to me maybe you can help me understand it is I read that vacancy rates are very -- And I also read along side of that that rent prices are very high. Yet people still. Are gone out buying at least not in in in any kind of dramatic fashion. Why is that why how can you have high rent low vacancy and yet homeownership and and people are flocking to it to buy a house. Yet that that's actually then the conundrum her -- of the puzzle and it -- people what's in over the past two years -- affordability is just an insanely. We're really upset would have been hit since I mean. We at its ability most markets. This -- dating 3040 years back. And and any pair of home price is actually about our reset back to go -- levels -- that with mortgage rates in -- 4% for thirty year fixed yet. Really extraordinary portability but that has not gotten as you say buyers office says I think the reason. We see that is happening -- people's. Wanted it to buyers are concerned about we just -- broader economy. Unemployment and a number of other data signal they -- season's second factors. They've been concerned particularly about quickly falling home values and unit their protection at all night you know by asset its debts to appreciate that it buy it. I think it was two. Roadblocks to depart reader market are easing in -- quell the one we are. The broader economy does seem to be do the better we made some progress -- employment. We are starting to grow jobs in it a little bit higher pay each month. And I think at home values are I think we are I think homeowners can -- yen and our ourselves and squint NC and two substantial. Declined an on site and future I think that's. Combining to. -- defense which is what we're seeing in the first few months of this year I think we'll see more that. It almost seems -- prices have gotten to be like when you look at certainly back in 2004 and 2005 house prices got too high. And in and I would argue that in 2012 they've gotten too low. It -- and it a lot of market that is exactly true if you look at. You know looking at. How prices relates immediate counseling them in the market the typical way a condoms will look at whether there's a ball on the market. And you can just didn't -- that marked the Miami Phoenix where you know pressed decorations got way out of whack but now they have they've definitely over corrected -- Phoenix's now when he blows the parts of ratios. Etiquette secret trip I think a lot of visited the you know what it's setting fires and resistant to get in the marketplace there's two factors described I think that is. They're picky about that is changing and part of what's going to be changed -- -- futures perspective repeated a lot you know nationally rents a two and a half percent up from where there were last year. In the Boston market the -- much -- to support work last year while Oprah's new ball that equation continues to tilt in favor of body. Nature does what doctor appreciate your time thank you. That's doctor Stan Humphrey he's the chief economist over at zillow dot com great website you can visit to check out the value of your house and your neighbors.