Michael Livian, Livian & Co, discusses China
Thu, 12 Apr 2012|
Michael Livian from Livian & Co. discusses the economic conditions in China. He also looks into some investing sectors that he's paying attention to.
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Tami Luhby, CNN MoneyTami Luhby, CNN Money
out there. All my family is out and Antarctica there in -- hockey players all these Bruins players that you love -- -- where you think they're from either from you figure from Massachusetts. What -- -- the American players on the crossed amber is here now so why. Why did you leave. My dad a transfer okay Kampman you'd still be their -- guys that are not facts you'd go back tomorrow -- if you. The problem is I'm not a good enough occupier he it to be. Saskatchewan. Produces more hockey players per capita than any other place in the world to -- a -- paid attention the past couple weeks. But supposedly the number one hockey player in the world it turns out. He's not that Iraqi player you know he is that it is just that the other Canadian playing against -- is a better player. -- birdie is a better player than Sidney Crosby . When he doing and you look at the game of hockey -- get ready looks at the offensive side of hockey chemicals that yet now it's a two -- game you gotta be of the play defense Sidney Crosby can't play defense he sucks and the defense he's he's he's a wimp. And he doesn't play. That's an uncle Chris Chelios . Give me a belt made him but he running each. Is. Like rich rich this is embarrassing to to stop that knowing that Jack and Roenick now. Wage on the island -- got your -- -- these. Players I sound yet I've actually her -- The hall of famers I mean it the best like Bobby or he's from Canada and -- now he's from Saskatchewan. Wayne Gretzky he's from -- In isolating it like that's your national sport that you didn't see any baseball players made it in the -
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been and then. We'd like to buy the whole company and then negotiated transaction . Do you own any shares in the company now. We do we heard the second largest outside shareholder. The family owns roughly 90%. Of this company. DE Shaw. Very very large hedge fund in New York City is the largest outside shareholder and we are number two. Why panel why they're why they hesitating to solitude they must feel that the shares are worth Maurizio I think I can conclude. Well. I don't wanna speak for them but I suspect you're right on the money. They had no idea that and they know there's a lot of value there. And I guess they're confident that someday they will get that we would like to help shareholders get that values sooner rather than later. Because. We thought the assets -- well. You made the statement that you feel the -
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we asked a question of the day which had to do with Social Security And collect your Social Security for retirement age or are you going to collect literally. 73%. Of Americans collect their Social Security early in the vast majority of cases I think that's a mistake but people do it for any reasons. When I came up with June and I think is a good idea for us to talk about is you know we're sitting here and and and acting all high and mighty. As it relates to this discussion about Social Security in the back the matter is we have access to tremendous resources on this topic whether the courts are now ski. Who worked for the departments of security for 37 years or whether it's Chris Farrell was a reporter for Bloomberg we have access to a lot of data. What I would like to do is make this information on Social Security Tips to maximizing -- worst Social Security benefits I'd like to make it available to our listening. I think it's they I think it's important. You know people refer to it I think some 97 -- as areas of securities of Ponzi scheme this. I disagree with you respectfully -- disagree with you but you know -- more importantly. Please educate yourself on Social Security Call this phone number it's 508591. 5444. Asked for the guide about Social Security tell the I would pay -- wanna learn more about Social Security Barry seems to know a lot you know why I read a -- I studied this stuff every day it's what I do for a living. 5085915444. Is the number you should call. Call them. Tell -- you're listening to the financial exchange and you want to learn more about how he can maximize your benefits. Out of Social Security I think you'll be glad you made the call I know I was glad when I read the report on Social Security Maybe a more informed consumer. 5085915444. Up next Sean Kravitz he's the president of a hedge fund. That has been trying for
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Michael at the end is the founder and chief investment strategist for Libyan and company he joins us today on the financial exchange Michael welcome to the show are you doing. Are you good Michael I I wanna start off our conversation. With a little bit of a review of China. China's rumored to be slowing down at least their economy slowing down what's your perspective on the Chinese economy today. When. I think today it is clearly. Slowing down if if you look at that debate the points or about two quarters you see that that the GDP trending down from 10% to 8%. Tomorrow would it was see what the numbers look like. At the same time Mac inflation is is trending down that indeed China even if they're not tweeting was in the habitable. Expectations. And we do have. Find quite some evidence -- you know all exports and imports are dropping and investments are dropping. Not think they'll -- dramatic and if we look more that the leading indicators. Such as. Always he'd be leading indicator or the beach so that actually there may be so we knew traction in the economy so. It is certainly slowing down but nothing dramatic and I think all of that in I would say in -- of -- right. Because. -- -- of trying. For the Chinese economy says it's quite has the in managed to rebalance its from Annette. An investment infrastructure driven export driven economy -- -- more -- you know consume it and investment we've been on. What happens though I mean hey they've had GDP growth 910% for a long time what is their GDP growth drop step. 5% 6% the United States would kill to have the GDP growth of 5%. Would have what happens to the Chinese economy and what does it feel like in China -- GDP's 5%. Is it it is it would be quite. It's painful experience for. The Chinese economy and I think that day. Day they important distinction between that -- -- US it is that the economy and China now or other economies is that. It's not so much that -- absolute level of the growth rate but it's typical day at the comparison between. What is the trend growth rate and they actually growth rate so that pumping that the economies to look very closely out. You know days that they -- -- the trend growth rate the potential growth rate of an economy dysfunctional as the population growth. Well it's the productivity growth and and that's where an economy should grow up defeated the -- on employment and and problems so. Given that -- did the population the demographics of trying and the productivity. They should be basically. Growing to 7%. To dropping 5% it's going to be -- equivalent to the recession that recession. That's amazing now with with this environment you know stock market's up an awful lot the first hundred days of trading in 2012. -- what sectors do you feel right now. Are still undervalued working you buy stocks in in in terms of the sectors we can still get a bargain relative to the overall market. Let's put this plea. I've wondered did try to book. Demystify and at the -- -- sector investing. Is that it. The way our approach to investing is that. Investing should be done more on. Brought their investment teams that have been -- and if you can find companies and ideas. That she'd been those those areas so. When you construct the port called based on longer than ideas. Your chances of success there much -- especially confined -- companies and then. Bit dissect or did that would basically falling to please themselves but that be using an investment them sectors as it. So our main ideas to Dayton in the market there are. Few secular -- That are very very very. Stronger and it would continue to be there for four years and in -- -- -- -- articulate them and you can find investment opportunities so. In those. In particular I think that that you are. Seeing. A global rebalancing you all of of the economy meaning that that. The US emerging markets are playing very big -- that we have to basically to become more. Consumer driven a big role and that the GDP could -- world saw the consumption in those countries. -- increase and the developed markets the -- basically. Go more back to the roots of creating new problems in the -- manufacturing. And and is global rebalancing its day kind of pervasive it would affect currencies is gonna affect you most sectors. This is one the the second team he's. Did the demographic changes in the world and and population aging. And both in the US and the new world and split especially in Japan. That the population today is aging approaching. Because portion of the population is approaching. Retirement age. And that and -- create it's very -- very peak demand for at least two things. One that is that these units. People that that are retiring the need to generate some sort of income and and to its forehead against Serbs. And and these are basically areas of extreme interest two two. In their area oh. Or -- team is that that we had that quote not so. Some won't be out in public in day in the western world and deleveraging. We ours continues to be -- these displeasure pressure would be never and and that affects consumers so. One of our the main theme music consumers who got -- -- consumers today are looking at ways to. Purchased better spending that and spend less time on purchases. And actually you have several companies in the consumers base. That are attractively valued and that the they're doing very very very well indeed continue to do well and the you know includes about environments. Michael how are you protecting your baby boomer clients -- your senior citizens who are retiring how are you protecting them from inflation that's the great fear. That a lot of retirees have because they once they retire they know their Social Security's not getting -- very much if at all. And they know that they're going to be paying a lot more for health care during the next 2030 years. What effect will let me and ticket. They regret that Libby about inflation had been that day the big question today. Everybody's looking at these massive monetary expansion in the US now in Europe and everybody's saying. All this money is being printed the value of the currency is gonna -- down it's going to be inflationary and we're all going to be stuck. -- it is that potentially an outcome but that is in the future I don't think inflation is two -- problem. I think that. The central banks are experimenting. Annual monetary techniques. But demonic that is being printed is actually not -- -- down -- cost. Are you suggesting that you're not concerned about inflation over the next five. Over -- excite -- as we're sure absolutely. I am not it's not my concern today it so. But the way we're protecting against inflation which is it certainly going to be. And -- -- Is that rule. Obviously. We do have some positions that also obvious that day. Because there are certain to conflict but inflation we do have some gold positions -- not massive but we do have them. We do have some positions in timber investment. What are real stating using real estate I heard another strategist saying he was using. Real estate investment trusts as an inflation hedge because the hard assets in the current income provided. -- Do we we are using -- I mean that it but we do believe that the US real estate is it is very very attractive not to -- now extremely attractive so we're not playing did that -- -- the -- some more hybrid securities. BBA between equities and real estate but that actually. Realistic is that is that very attractive. After the -- sort of an excess five years and basically -- de Villa behind protecting against inflation east who have. Security is that can -- an income that that can grow and and and have multiple secure -- in name in. In this basically you have very high quality common stalks that. Maybe they're opting to -- -- of them but the history of consistently increasing the did which that there that says it's gonna protect you with with pricing -- of that master limited partnerships set. You know some of the high quality and partnership or. Good investments for. I read I read but. I would say that -- that they diversified portfolio of securities that -- Mack keep up but -- that. More stocks than bonds I think usually tell me. And yet. We have to run Michael thanks very much -- Michael the end he's the founder and chief investment strategist for Libyan and company and he joins us today on the finance -- --
