Pollster Scott Rasmussen on Governor's Race

During the show today but first. I told you would you get a new Rasmussen polls soon. Any day now I kept telling you -- this is the benchmark poll for the Massachusetts governor's race. And we're happy to have on and joining us to help interpret these numbers. Scott Rasmussen in the head of the Rasmussen Reports. The best pollster in America. You can see that into view I think we still have it up on our website. That Chara and -- WRK dot com the Charlie Manning page that was in The Wall Street Journal couple weeks ago. -- god and his polling philosophy in the great success he's had over the years. And one of the founders of ESPN I never knew that before there was a really good interview. And we ask Scott to join us today to talk about the new Massachusetts numbers and he's on the phone how you do and Scott.

doing great you are limited Jersey shore and so we're happy girl passed those fly in and hope it does the same --

Oh yeah I think we're gonna be -- you know I took all the furniture off the -- last night took off flags down all that stuff but I think we're gonna be just fine I think I'd be okay. So tell us about these new numbers.

All the new numbers are -- Deval Patrick of 39% Charlie Baker 34%. -- 18%. Not a whole lot different than what we saw a month or so ago. And quite frankly not a whole lot different always seen all year the number we're prepared to vote against the governor. Is right around the 50% mark. But now that we're getting closer to Election Day were also asking people aren't sure they are of their decision. And what might happen if they changed their vote while only 28% to ten K -- orders are certain they will vote for him. And if we push for leaders we find the races even closer 44%. For Governor Patrick. 42%. Return or baker and 8% for Tim Cahill. Not quite sure what's gonna happen every race as a dynamic that would solve. But it appears that about half the voters will voted against the governor and the smaller K build support those little lower his numbers go. The better news it is internal debate.

Yet to meet this is the critical part of this polls I read it this morning you you know the numbers as you said really aren't all that different Patrick under forty Charlie in the mid thirties and ten in the Tim Cahill in the teens. But then you asked how -- or -- to -- gonna vote for that candidate. And then you know more than half -- baker supporters say yup they're gonna stick with him. More than. What is it for 64%. Of Patrick supporters say they're certain they'll vote in 58% at Charlie's. But as you said only 28%. Of -- kills. And then when you is is what we call pulling a bush or leaned her -- whenever you do. That's where it gets really interesting 44 to 42. And that's when folks are gonna say I think it the end is they did in net New Jersey race. Look Tim -- a good guy but you know we've got to beat Deval Patrick here in those voters go to Charlie Baker.

Well certainly that's where the trend is and -- that the dynamic to watch -- humor occasional -- those. A couple of differences. Governor Patrick is not. As unpopular as governor Corzine was in New Jersey. Is strong negatives are in the thirties orders for signs were at forty. But it's interesting to note that right now 46% approve of the job that Patrick is doing. We pushed the -- to get to 44%. Of the vote. You know it's still a referendum on the incumbent -- that holds true. I would expect occasional numbers go down we just don't have any idea how much.

Now I've always thought this race is gonna be decided by. The cool the conservative independents. And the conservative Republicans go with -- conservative Democrats to did you break it. Down non. By ideology who's winning among conservatives right now.

Well baker is. But but the question isn't so much who's winning it what you have a three way race -- you there's some. Leakage from what you would normally get that we see this in the Massachusetts race. We saw the same thing. In in Florida with the senate -- down there. You know in the Marco Rubio in Florida wins most of the Republicans Charlie Crist still picking up 19%. Driving impact in the margin. That's we've -- Massachusetts this very clear. Bit. Speaker is seen as the conservative in the race 62% think he's conservative politically 21%. Say he's moderate. The ball Patrick is seen as liberal by 64%. 41% say he's moderate -- Kincaid tell. He's seen primarily as a moderate 38% hold that -- 33% say he's politically conservative. Again I think. It's easy to over analyze. Numbers. You know we also have some some data showing that. A fairly large percentage 36%. Say the -- Patrick policy views are extreme there outside the mainstream. Very high for an incumbent and -- higher than either his opponent so that suggests there's some intensity of the race. But the reality is we're still looking at a situation. Where Governor Patrick is the story. And if he remains the story -- the question comes down the worst in -- don't support. Over the next two months voters in Massachusetts -- this war we'll hear more about. The challengers. And it's going to be one of the more interesting races of the nation.

Yet the first big debate televised debate is coming up this Tuesday. How if you ever seen a race you know we sought -- the sad pictures of of the governor and Arizona are incurred to date having that little meltdown if you ever seen. Can't do you see campaigns change much from the -- take you know when you've been doing tracking poll in a weekly polling. Can you see debate to really having a big -- being a big factor.

Debates can be a big factor. One here is a definable moment. In -- relevant to the voters you know if you look back at the history of presidential debate. Jimmy Carter probably won the election because there's debate Gerald Ford said to hold. Was not under Soviet domination rise. We see it so we -- Hillary Clinton in 2008. Struggle on the issue of driver's licenses for illegal immigrants yes and then that -- impact. That helped Barack Obama heading into Iowa. And Obama's impact and oh victory in Iowa is essential to him winning the nomination -- more of there are state races where there are similar things but this general story line is. If -- candidates don't make a major -- you know both say something that really becomes the focal point of debate. Are of the ongoing dialogue after the debate. They're not likely to have much of an impact.

I haven't I know -- the new book coming out but I I've read your last book and you really make the point out that. The voters don't feel like the candidates are listening to van and doing what they wanna do. Want them to do. Once they become office holders and that that that especially Washington just isn't listening to the rest of the country that's that's sort of the theory of it right.

That's -- rights -- percent right now saved it to most politicians don't care what their constituents thank. And most troubling number -- me through all that is only about one out of five Americans believe. That the government today has the consent of the governed and you know that's. But forma. The only legitimate basis so authority according to our founding document so there is the it deep attachment that is not so much about the policy decisions what you know getting it right or wrong. It is about the sense that the policies are being made without embracing. Or including the American people in the discussion.

We're talking national pollster Scott Rasmussen he has a new poll out today that everybody around town is talking about. In the Massachusetts governor's race so getting back to that theory now we have the big debate on channel four. Tuesday night at 7 o'clock. And Patrick Vogt is pretty sad though the folks basically that are gonna vote for Patrick you're gonna see Patrick. Bickering K -- fight and for a lot of the same voters who what would what should they be telling talking about it and should they attack Patrick does it does is baker attacking Patrick helped them. Is K hill attacking what is they attack each other what happens and in those different scenario escorting the numbers you're seeing.

Well look so let's start where it the most important fact. You know even though could be televised debate and lots political junkies will be watching right. -- baseball games on another sample that's true so not a huge audience for the debate itself. But it will influence what people read in the papers the next day what they CNN news broadcasts. And if there are pledged that come out of those that become the defining moments of debate. You know that will have a bigger impact on moving boats in the in the -- here you -- If it looks like. The two challengers to Governor Patrick -- just carry each other down to being petty. And that's not gonna help either one of them. If it looks like they're being unfair in their attacks on the governor. It's not gonna help but if they are able to make it a case. For why either should be changed that it can be a case that is impacting the governor's record as long -- it's you know relevant and meaningful. Then there might be some upside for the book but really we're. We're at a point. We're. Voters are going to be aware they're aware of the polling data -- appear to be aware of the governor's position more than anything else. They're gonna be looking to get a comfort zone with the two challengers. I was asked recently whether real. A Baker's career. In the health industry that is a plus or minus. Any interest could be either depending on how the received.

Sure. On -- you know in the Scott Brown race and everybody came away with a feeling Martha Coakley probably ran 99 of the ten ads in the outside groups that you know war on her side the democratic senatorial committee big labor everywhere. Just attacking Scott Brown nasty nasty attacks one after another. In a lot of people thought it backfired on her. What are you seeing and hearing about negative ads around the country they still work teen are people turned off they more solution oriented what are you seeing.

Well negative it ever -- they hate negative that it's. There's a question about what the definition of a negative bad. Almost any incumbent politician will say if you're telling people about my record in office that's the negative yes. It wasn't a negative and the drag you down -- was the fact that she started campaigning too late. She didn't remember which team Kurt Schilling played for us this whole series of things that fit into that it truly was a perfect storm. You know there will be negative ads leader in this campaign cycle. Which way they get directed we'll tell swap. And got to draw a comparison between Massachusetts and Florida. Right now Kendrick Meek is the new democratic nominee. He's fighting just like Troy victories in Massachusetts he's fighting would would independent candidate. Kendrick -- first ad campaign in the negative attack -- on Charlie Crist says the independent. And I think Marco Rubio is enjoying that.

And that's the shore. Yeah let's we've what we've got you I know you pull all over the country all the time and we've seen some of the other you know political wise men -- by the way were talking to Scott Scott Rasmussen the Rasmussen Reports. Rasmussen Reports dot com is the best political site to go to every day if you don't have a book marked. You've really got to do a Rasmussen Reports stock car in Scott it's a new poll in the Massachusetts race but he pulls all over the country. You know Stabenow came out -- I mean Nam. Not Charlie Cook the other national -- are -- you know number write this week exactly. And done you're pulling every day and all these races. What are you seeing out there is -- trend and is there anything that's really surprising new.

Well it's true nothing surprising is the trend keeps growing. We -- pro level that we don't know that we'll continue until November. I would agree live Larry seven total assessment right now. The Republicans would gain control of the house of election were held today the question in my mind as well -- gain ward fifty seat -- not. In this senate. What is changed is. The Republicans appear quite likely to pick up seven -- eight seats in the senate. It's now easy to point two seats that could put him over the top. The likelihood of winning all those seats is not high rise but they could if they -- Russ Feingold of Wisconsin Patty Murray in Washington. And Barbara Boxer of California the Republicans would likely weed control. There's also. Evidence now that John mentioned is not a block. On the road and West Virginia race and he's leading by six points in our latest polling. A minute and you know one of the things you look forward and a campaign get upset. The mansion campaigns that didn't didn't believe are pulling up a bigger lead but I know they're now aggressively attacking. Their opponent first self funding and an acting like a campaign that has -- serious resent him so I think there is some level concern. Bottom line is it looks like Republicans will make some significant gains in the senate. You would speak. Again another perfect storm just like the Massachusetts senate race with the over the top. But the big thing that you've got to remember about the US senate is there's another set of elections in 2012. 33 -- 78 year 44 of them are held by Democrats. Other Republicans are almost certain to gain additional seats in the next site so.

If you you know I keep reading in all the conservative web sites that. The Republicans have to come out with their plan may have to say. Here's our twelve point plan and here's what we would do and if we take over the majority in ball ball -- block. I think when your opponents are making a mishmash out of everything. Just run on the issues there in front -- and and don't try do that try to make a big deal and bring a lot of philosophy into it if you are advising them what would you say.

Well there's a couple of issues here to talk about just winning election you're absolutely right. What some of those people are arguing force they want to Republicans to show you -- stand for something so they can have an agenda that they can claim a mandate for. That the danger for the GOP. Is if they go -- here's all the things we're gonna do. And then they don't act on them it's gonna backfire. Right you know it I would I would suggest. I think you pick a few things you have clear clear about your specific about that you make sure. If you get the majority that you will make those things happen. And you know it's it's. It's also important to avoid. Gamesmanship but back in 1995. After the the so called government shutdown. Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey did the press conference. After dragging on and clearly not bode well for Republicans they said we're not gonna relent. Until the White House agrees use CBO baseline projections for budget purposes. And I think what they said that most people -- like what what were they talking about with bribery and issue with state dances in an accounting dispute. And so you got to make sure that there's a connection with larger issues when you're going about it.

You know I I saw a new -- and 1 of the morning shows the other day and they were asked him about all these numbers and Larry -- those predictions and the way things are going in. He launched into this so insider. Well look looks like we'll be seeing a speaker bringing her down the line and that's what the American people want a speaker -- are and and I'm thinking. It has nothing to deep inside Washington stuff only hurts the Republicans it has nothing to do with the nationwide feeling do you agree.

Well absolutely right now people or doing the same thing in 2010 that they did in 2006 and 2008 the voting against the party of power. Speaker Gingrich is a very bright guy but speaker Gingrich. So -- became speaker is his negatives went up. So more people see what she became speaker her negatives one up if John Boehner become speaker these negatives will go up. Because what politicians you'd better known they've become less popular than when you're speaker of the house you don't have the the advantages of the White House that would drive you know more positive message board. And -- that -- but even a commentary. Speaker Pelosi or potentially speaker -- that's just the way politics works. Right now the American people are unhappy that both political parties and they've rejected both. The Democrats the differences democratic voters are generally happy -- democratic representatives in congress. Republican voters are generally unhappy with the Republicans in congress. Three out of four Republican voters say that their congressman -- out of touch with the party base. Most Republicans. In the nation believe that most Republicans in congress are more liberal than it.

I -- you brought up Russ Feingold being in trouble in -- Wisconsin. Then here's a little quick story from the Milwaukee journal sentinel on a few CNET. When president Barack Obama visits on Milwaukee on Labor Day to talk to working families and does and members of dozens of labor unions. One prominent politician won't be there. Russ Feingold is not showing up to campaign with the president on Labor Day in Milwaukee is that of these thing.

Yep well you know it's it's not really all that surprising. We noted earlier you know we were the first to show the Wisconsin race being tossup yes and -- lots of people said that can't possibly be true nobody's ever heard of Johnson Feingold along. Upstanding citizen by the way people don't hate Russ Feingold the way they Nevada voters think that every week there's. There's a difference. But we knew right away that something was going on because Feingold started. Are claiming some affiliation and support from Tea Party linked groups in and shut sharing that agenda so we knew he was. Seeing some reopens pause for concern. On his home state. When President Obama. Brought the ground zero mosque issue. Into the national dialogue Russ Feingold was forced to respond to his response while I give credit was heartfelt in what keeps it consistent with his beliefs. It was not a politically popular -- stand. And you know I think if you're Russ Feingold you wanna avoid being in a position where you have to. Answer questions like.

That's for sure. Well Scott thank you so much Scott Rasmussen from the Rasmussen Reports the new Massachusetts poll is out -- given us all the info on it. Will posted up on our website if you read if you haven't seen in of course just go to Rasmussen Reports stock common you can read. All the numbers and all -- commentary it's really interesting poll. Especially when they throw in those leaders in that race tightens up and have a great weekend taken all three days off.

I'm gonna take a couple days off got some family in town and be ready to go because it's going to be nonstop from Labor Day to Election Day.

Exactly now -- comes by he'll just go by and about an hour lady you'll be all -- and safe down in the Jersey shore so don't worry about it all right I -- you -- thank. That Scott Rasmussen.