Deval still leads in the polls

And talking about local politics. One of the sort of measuring point says of this really interest in governors' races every month when the new Rasmussen poll comes out. Both newspapers had big stories it broke last night. Then we called our friend Scott Rasmussen best pollster in America. -- give us some insight into this new poll in the governor's race here in Massachusetts. Welcome to the show Scott how you doing today. I'm doing great good to give back oh it's great to have you back I guess looking at the result of this behold the hit what sort of strikes me is nothing's changed in a month.

That's about right Patrick and baker. Now six point part they -- seven months ago they both lost little bit of ground. The big story continues to be Deval Patrick is helped by the fact that the -- 49%. That are gonna vote against him. But 32% of those voting for Charlie Baker 17%. -- ten -- hill. Patrick total below the 40% mark but he still had.

He still ahead. I was looking at the favorable unfavorable and you've got Patrick up to 51. Now. And you said that would -- how people feel about the economy and when you look at the economic numbers it's right on it's exactly there. That's not bad for him to be at 51 hit in the three way races that.

Not bad at all and and that is a -- again that it's a two person race and he's right if that's 50% 51% mark can be very close. But with three candidates -- you get to splitting the vote. Well and in the governor hasn't been much better shot and you know we do notice this happening on the economy. People who say the economy is getting better and to be supporting actress. People who say economy's getting worse and who opposed him. But. They're splitting their vote.

We're talking to Scott Rasmussen of the Rasmussen Reports that do all the polling and they've been doing a poll every month here in the governor's race in Massachusetts. And it's the one now that everybody is -- using this is the sort of measuring stick for the race and what's going on in the race. Kay heal up a point but at seventeen. T see any room for growth for him -- he get and his votes is are they mostly from Democrats.

He does better among Democrats than he does among Republicans. But really it's pretty much across Florida gets 14% of Republicans only percent of Democrats 16% of unaffiliated -- rural voters.

In Charlie Baker is not doing as the Republican standard bearer and he won the convention knees to the end doesn't have an opponent no primary. But he isn't probably doing as well among Republicans says as we think he might have been doing.

Well I you know he's doing okay and there aren't that many Republicans is that that's true that the unaffiliated voters where rough. We're he's got to pick up some ground if he wants to to make the move in this race she's getting 42%. Of unaffiliated vote. Just by way of comparison Scott Brown picked up 73%. Of that vote back in January.

Speaking of Scott Brown I noticed you put him in your favorable and -- Scott Rasmussen is great because he always throws us some little tidbits in there. That we haven't seen before we sort of weren't looking for an in this case he asked favorable unfavorable saw in the three gubernatorial candidates. And then on senator Scott Brown. And actually Scott Brown's negatives is up a little bit he's 54 positive forty negative. And I wonder if some of that forty negative is an among conservatives because I'll tell you folks a lot of conservatives weren't happy that he voted. For the -- finance bill he that he was the vote that got the president's finance build finance reform bill through ally in the congress.

Well right now among conservatives just 41%. Have an unfavorable opinion of him. 70%. Of liberals in this state have an unfavorable opinion so still pretty big split. -- we are seeing though is. And this happens to everybody after they take office numbers begin -- even have a little bit. Right now 21%. Have a very favorable opinion Scott -- 20%. A very unfavorable opinion. In those -- strong opinions are the ones who talk to their friends and neighbors and all talk radio and in day and let their views be known. So right now brown and little light -- the middle.

In I've noticed now the K hill is net negative there's another round of -- GA ads running right now. Some attack -- not Governor Patrick some attacking Tim Kay hill. And he -- 36 favorable. But now 46. Unfavorable he bought a lot of ads himself -- fourth of July they don't seem to have helped him too much to that.

No in again I think there's the RG eight shredded he's pretty clear they want CK hill's numbers. Dropped they wanna see him get into a single digit but labor day of shortly thereafter. So the people begin to say you know what he's not gonna win so we have to make a decision for or against the incumbent. That's the race for Republicans want to see they want you all be a referendum. On Governor Patrick and they want all the people who want to vote against Patrick to vote for Republican. A governor's Patrick wants they don't stay in the race -- what that both want to keep it.

We're talking to Scott Rasmussen of the Rasmussen Reports about his brave new poll by the way we have an up on our web site. Just good at wrko.com. Click on the Charlie Manning page we've got all the info therefore you if you wanna study tonight when you get home from work or. From your travels today it's it's all right there online -- and it's a great read because not only did they give you the numbers but the Rasmussen folks. Do you -- sort of a narrative about the race and also ask a lot of other really interesting questions that I think -- fun. And obviously to if you want to. Just bookmark the Rasmussen Reports page we look at it several times a day here at the Charlie Manning show because there's always new information there. You just -- Rasmussen Reports dot com. Bookmark that right there and you'll have the best in national polling and Massachusetts bullying and I in fact interesting poll just like I don't think we talked about and on the show but. You did one in Arizona are on that senate race that everybody's thinking about Scott and it looks like John McCain's now pulled out to a big lead in Arizona.

He sure as he's up by twenty points 54 to 34. Perhaps even more important in the numbers this is the fourth hole -- we have found that -- we're losing ground. In terms of his overall support McCain is now -- his highest level. The Senate -- I think he probably took your heart what was happening to Arlen Specter earlier in the year and then senator Bennett. In his own party and John McCain took this -- very seriously spent a lot of money in the last few months. Came out very strongly in defense of governor would ruin your resolve immigration law and there appears to be in you know pretty good shape heading into that prime.

So that's the type of information you get it Rasmussen Reports every day and I would have a book -- if I were you. I don't know if you heard this Scott but people were so looking forward to your poll breaking last night that one of the big blogs it's called red mass group and it's a great. Blog if you -- into Massachusetts politics they actually had the pound down there. An hour and a half to look Rasmussen our poll comes out what are you doing until the poll comes out and and everybody put in comments you know waiting for. For your poll to come out last night on this race.

I know that night I guess you know it's baseball season for -- you do more.

If yes especially with the suck so bad they won last night though would you lose three out of four to the Mariners it's not a good sign not a good sign at all. So if you can if you would I've been thinking is there a ceiling that Patrick can get to. Can he is like forty the best he can do is 38 the best he can do can he get in the low forties. How -- baker have to get to be able to beat him.

Although the reality is. Deval Patrick can get pretty close to 50% if things break his way -- that favorability level job approval. You know split right down the middle he can do that Jon Corzine and other troubled governor here a year ago New Jersey. You've got to the mid forties so clearly. That is dependable level for Deval Patrick. We don't know where we're you -- put. It's the I think the key thing is going to be it can -- in double digits it becomes very difficult for Charlie because when.

Even at 101112. That makes it hard.

That's exactly right you do what's -- it's consistently. Consistently. 495051%. Of the voters are expressing a desire to vote against Deval Patrick. You have that it's a few points higher you keep the -- net two in the anyway.

In the Nick -- hill is the only one who wind up a little bit in this all he went from sixteen to seventeen. Last month up Patrick was at 41 now he's -- the 38 last month Charlie Baker was that. But 34 now he's down to 32 is is there any significance to that should we be concerned about that if you're Charlie Baker fan I don't.

Think there's significance to the fact that cable number one up appointment -- for half point margin of error for the overall survey sure what it does city is the freefall was stopped you know earlier Kate was in the mid morning. The numbers fell down quite a bit and now that you're student's fault for this you know at least for the moment. And and again this is some things never have to watch show over the next couple months. I think and again like preferred to have several times that you got half the population already -- and vote against the incumbent. They are not likely to return the ball Patrick at any point. So we'll have to see how that you know those numbers especially for -- built into. Before.

Now you asked about how. If people would vote for an independent candidate have you ever voted for an independent candidate ever affiliated. Not affiliated with either major party. And 57%. Said yes they have. Which -- it sort of got my head spinning thinking. When did an independent not for her do that well I remember Ross Perot got over one me in Massachusetts. When he ran as an independent but I thought that was really interesting answer.

Well and you have to remember now this is something that we ask have you ever voted for an independent and older people -- more likely to say yes to that than younger people because it Novak and a collection there was somebody that you were unhappy with four. Some third party option may have been Ross Perot may have been Al -- it may have been a different race. It's that this is not something that this thing is part of your regular voting pattern. But it is it is an interesting note and I think in today's environment people are unhappy. We're both political parties and so there's -- certain openness to it if the right candidate.

In many interestingly you went on and asked would you be more likely or less likely to vote for an independent candidate in this election than in past elections. And 27%. Said more likely 38%. Said less likely so that's really interesting to.

Yeah and in on that question it's we find it Democrats. Overwhelmingly say they're less likely 47% of Democrats are less likely. The vote for a third party candidate but those. And I'm enrolled voters unaffiliated voters of Massachusetts the plurality of them they didn't do -- if you're looking at it. Well we did the same question down in the state of Florida. Democrats were more likely to consider voting for third party candidate issued -- report. And the reason for that these Charlie Crist and former Republican running that whole lot of it has -- you partisan intentions. Even when you're talking about voting for an independent candidate.

In trusting them one others Scott asked a lot of issues questions so you'd love to go on line I think you read the whole poll -- you asked. You know like we think of Massachusetts as a really green stage. We think of Massachusetts as you know being on the coast here so we're very concerned about our coastal waterways in the oceans in the days. And you asked should offshore drilling be allowed. I was surprised to 51%. Said yes 29%. Said no I was surprised that that --

Well you know -- that's a little lower that's a little lower than we see all across the nation. When you get to Louisiana and that number 74%. To -- 70%. While and I think one of the things we do see in those numbers of people that are in those theories first ball doing -- or part of their economy. And they're looking at that that gulf as they -- working body of water rather what you like you -- It's also worth pointing out we asked about deep water drilling. Only 39%. Massachusetts -- favor of it again well below the national.

Now every day Scott has and I usually share with my listeners the daily presidential tracking poll we usually start out the show by telling folks about the daily presidential tracking poll and I was looking at it before. To show today and President Obama are is that negative. One he is that is worst number so far since you've been doing this tracking.

Don't even a couple points worse. What we find it it really take a good look back over the last several months you'll find it. Between forty and 45%. He strongly disapprove that's a very consistent number. Today. It's just 45%. Only wants to at that number higher. But it's these strong approval this has been shifting a little bit. It was in the low thirties after help here became a Health Care Reform became law it got a point 5% right now. In that one measures. You know these these lack of enthusiasm with Democrats are bringing into election 2000 that.

You're been pulling all over the country. Thank you know why he's read the national pond and -- are all very good and they're all smart folks. Are you seeing the same signs that they are seeing that if things continue on this way. That we are gonna have a real change election this fall.

We are certainly good to see a big change in the representation in congress. Right now it's sort of possibly what do Republicans regained -- Control the house or not. It would take things moving further than they are right album for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate. Still a lot of skepticism out there about what that means that only 47% of voters think that there will be a noticeable difference if the Republicans take charge. An awful lot of skepticism and much of that skepticism coming from Republican and conservative voters. Who aren't really sure of nobody. They count on Republicans. In congress to provide a change there will.

Interesting well you can't blame them for that that's for sure but if you Sarah Palin can get out there in those and those folks and get them really excited and get them out it could be really an historical change this time around. Thanks so much Scott Rasmussen as always really appreciate you coming on the show and we'll talk to you next month when the new poll comes out I'll look forward -- thank you so much. That's Scott Rasmussen of the Rasmussen.