Scott Rasmussen, Rasmussen Reports

Patrick aides say the recent internal polling shows that the governor shows the governor having rebounded. Advisers say a survey conducted last week's that the poll they called a survey in the globe and it's a poll conducted last week. By polled by Patrick campaign pollster Tom Kiley. Had the governor's once small lead over baker increasing Charlie Baker in the Republican increasing the double digits. With K hill that's Tim Kay hill a few points behind the Republican. His job performance numbers are close to even the poll indicated which would be a major improvement. Voters also expressed a more positive view of the State's economic climate. Climate. So look I know Tom Kiley he's one of the best pollsters around. And in fact he's in my basketball poll. In fact he won our NCAA basketball pool last year so Tom's a really good guy and a good pollster. But you think men. I never really trust campaign polls because I've been on campaigns. In were always trying to spin the numbers to the guys in the press you know someone like frank Phillips -- call yet the campaign in -- that. Oh -- the numbers are looking good oh yes everything's good -- shore everything's coming back to normal it. Oppose the governor's doing much better. And that's their job that's what -- supposed to do and if they can get frank to write that without actually giving him the poll numbers to put the newspaper. More credit to them so. That's what frank Phillips writes in this story today politically Patrick back in the game. Energized governor gains his two rivals spar. So I put it out on my blog and I said well I don't know fight trust's campaign polls. But if Scott Rasmussen or another independent pollster does a poll well then I'll really trust that and we'll see if Patrick energized and surging in back in the game in this race for governor. So then after I've read this globe story we put it up on the blog. I go what I do I right click right where I click every day have got it in my favorites and you should have -- in your favorites to Rasmussen Reports dot com. And believe it or not. Right on time when we needed it the most after this front page globe story that Patrick doing so well. There's the new Massachusetts. Governor's race poll by Scott Rasmussen. Here's the latest here's what he has and you can read this on our blog with cut the link right there. To Scott Rasmussen analysis of of the of the race here in Massachusetts. Among the major candidates. The ball Patrick 35%. Where he always is that's sort of the liberal Democrat and independent moon that vote is we college here in Massachusetts. He's been at 35% for about every set 35% now. Charlie Baker is at 27%. In ten K who who we have on the show yesterday. The independent candidate. Is that 23%. So mean so little like Tom Kiley numbers that they were talking about although Kiley said he had him up by double digits but. Scott Rasmussen has him up. 88 points so that's close that's close and margin of error of any poll. Scifi boy if we could ever get Scott Rasmussen on today to talk about this new poll -- fill you all win. And guess what Gerry is joining us on the Charlie Manning show once against Scott Rasmussen thanks for joining us in Boston today.

do it is Charlie.

So you went in this poll go on the field when were you polling on on the mask governor's race.

This was Monday -- we surveyed. And you know I think the interesting thing here you've mentioned the Cato is doing well you have point 3% he's -- a few points in -- down a few points from months ago. But that total of their two vote is essentially the same 50%. Of decided right now is like to vote against default Patrick. 35% for him and have to say -- incumbent governor who's happy to have two competitors out there are splitting the vote.

So big front page story in the globe today says he's doing better. Looking at your numbers from a month ago to Europe to the numbers that you're putting out today in your brand new poll. Scott Rasmussen is Deval Patrick doing better.

He's -- a little better you know the baker was at 32% a month ago also uses three points and now he's down by eight. Patrick job approval ratings are up compared to a on -- go up seven points still -- it you know. In the range you'd like to be and but yes. I I guess the way to say it for Deval Patrick there's two things have -- these numbers are less that they were a month ago. And number two. What he's got to be hoping. Is that if this -- three way race that. One of the other competitors doesn't begin to pull away. And the reason I say that it is -- all the sudden we sought in case you know pulling away in baker fallen off my suspicion is. Speakers support we're all very rapidly and -- it would be a bit this year. The same would happen if baker began the old way and if that happens. Then Deval Patrick will be a lot more troubling is right now.

One of the things that really jumped out at me in in the analysis that you wrote with your poll here Scott. Is that 46%. Of voters in Massachusetts now save that the economy is getting better. In just 26 below the 26% believe it's getting worse. It is using the same thing nationally that type of optimism or is this the Massachusetts thing.

At Massachusetts. Much more optimistic that people across the country. Part of the reason may be it Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans and there's a larger share of Democrats semesters but it's Norton Massachusetts. Are certainly. More positive that we're seeing nationwide at this point.

And that's got to help an incumbent governor of people feeling better about the economy so that is one thing that could be helping at all Patrick.

That's helping and that's part of the reason is job approval numbers are absolutely true you know governors all across the country suffered. Other job approval -- suffered because the -- the year ago if it is coming back. Much better for any.

Okay so you say Charlie Baker slipped a little bit. What we don't have the breakdown of independents and Republicans and Democrats and liberals and conservatives that you see -- Charlie slipped.

Among independents -- to look a little better than it was a month ago and Charlie is hopeful that. And in one which have to keep in mind is there almost changing votes. Again these are people who have stated decision at this point campaign they're going to vote against the incumbent governor and they have two choices to do so.

We're joined by national pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Rasmussen Reports were talking about is brand new poll today on the Massachusetts governor's race. It shows Deval Patrick just about the same at 35%. Charlie Baker slipping a little bit going down to 27%. In ten K -- coming up a little bit going to 23%. You mention in here that no one of the things that's sort of stood out to us with talked a lot about it on the show was. When the national debate was going on about health care. And Obama care. Obviously Deval Patrick supported at a 100%. Ten K -- like but in a very smart move. Came out said he posted it hadn't worked in Massachusetts it wouldn't work nationally he's got out there got a lot of media coverage on it. In Charlie Baker kinda ended up in the middle there you know he was well you know they could've done it a different way that type of thing. And I noticed in your analysis he say. Meanwhile Kate -- been picking up key party support through its attacks on the national health care -- so you're seeing what we sort of felt.

Right it'll last -- wanna BS that issue is an. -- battleground. Case it'll it is it's smart move in Massachusetts before evenly divided about the national health care plan. Of 48% water repeal of 40% don't.

Which is different than nationally to write -- a little different.

Yet nationally 54%. Want to repeal it only 42%. Open again at its not that far off but it if you are looking. To challenge incumbent it is the issue you want to be on. And so that may be helping and it probably part of the region that -- sort which has taken place moving voters from Baker's potato.

Oh good good -- please.

That is something else that indeed got to keep in mind it were a long way away from of a partial -- changed but also right now 15% of voters are not sure. They're going to vote for. It's worth noting that very few of those are Democrats. Point 1% of the unaffiliated voters the other -- voters are. Undecided at this point in time. And they are likely. To be deciding between -- hill and speaker. Densely that as they break one leery of the other that could have a significant impact on race.

You know when Scott Brown ran he was able to get about it's there's a sort of old time conservative. Maybe you caught and or bin. Democratic base in the state. Lot of blue collar guys union guys. Fan leaves. And -- Scott Brown was able to get against Martha Coakley about 25%. Of the democratic vote and I think that's a vote. That's out there either for baker to get. Or four -- Tim -- to get. It do you have any eight who's doing better between baker and K hill among sort of conservative Democrats if you broken it down that much.

well K go absolutely doing better among conservative Democrats. And we I think it when you talk about what we we did some. Election night -- of that January race. And perhaps the most interesting demographic was we we look to people who who had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama. But an unfavorable view of the way that of the ball action was killing his job and they overwhelmingly voted first opera. Right these are people who weren't swayed but what the president was doing they were actually by the governor's job. Phonetic gave it right back to this key issues Deval Patrick placed he has made up ground in the last month is his job approval has improved. Partly perhaps because there's more economic optimism. -- his job approval continues to strengthen it becomes a tougher fight for either of the challengers. But if it's slipped back to the earlier levels. You know -- be struggling all the way -- total.

I've -- you know I'd look every day like most folks in the business -- at your national presidential tracking poll. And -- that judges you know president Obama's favorability and on favorability every day. And it should not tell you anything you don't know by the way we're joined by Scott Rasmussen of the Rasmussen Reports national pollster. But anyway you in during the height of the health care debate. You had him up about what minus twenties you know 20% negative. And that's rocked -- you keep repeating that that's more Democrats coming home now tool. You know Republicans or independents going that way. Is that would sort of -- is that what Deval Patrick needs to happen is. To energized Democrats and get them out so he can get above that 35 number of.

Absolutely. And the difference is again Massachusetts is much earlier Democrats there -- of them have it Deval Patrick and energize the democratic base. That's what he needs to accomplish this picture he keeps his job. Nationally. You know you hit it right when they. In health care bill passed Democrats all the across the country became more enthusiastic they became more enthusiastic about the president. They became more enthusiastic. About the country's direction. Before health care bill passed the -- of 42% of Democrats said that the country's heading in the right direction. Now it's up to 65%. Of Democrats. Optimistic. And that translates they could translate very well for Deval Patrick.

I notice also in this is not an interesting question you asked if people wanted Massachusetts. To join the fourteen states suing the federal government to challenge the constitutionality. Of the national health care bill. And only 39%. Here wanna do it so the fact that our attorney general who view you know from the Scott Brown -- Martha Coakley. Isn't going down that road is probably a good move for her.

Right and and you know again this is not really -- surprise that the that Massachusetts is little more supportive of the legislation that people of other states. I think there might be some who were shocked and averages size 39%. But for Martha Coakley she's doing with the voters of Massachusetts want for the majority of voters by staying out of that -- I to tend to think it's fascinating to. To watch the commentary on this. Officials particularly democratic officials state like states like Massachusetts. Have been very dismissive of the repeal effort and these lawsuits. And I think they're underestimating how popular they are. Is some other states around the country in Nevada over 60% of voters want to receive the health care bill. Repealed as bad news for Harry Reid. I've been talking -- support for repeal was even higher is actually to fill open senate seat. It's become a pretty powerful issue working against the democratic. But it hopes for this like.

So to sum it up Scott Rasmussen and and then it's gonna come down to. Can either Tim -- hill or Charlie Baker get up around forty. And died just squeak by in this three way race I think it's gonna be one of the most interesting races in the country. And you may have seen the piece on political the other day where. Basically the White House was saying if there's one rescue mission that the president wants to do is he wants to save Deval Patrick here in Massachusetts.

Right and in three -- races I think you're Patrick is as solid as 35% there is some room for him to grow. I suspect that will happen his numbers will move up a little bit. What the best thing no one else to do for him though others it. Really get mixed economic numbers -- in a positive direction. Make sure that both his challengers stay in the race. You know in New Jersey a year ago. There were a lot of polls showing that this that these point point 5% in the Jersey voters will consider considering voting for a third party candidate right. In the end only 6%. Did because they concluded at the end of the day was more important to vote against Jon Corzine. And to have that -- to have respect in the race so they ended up supporting Chris Christie who's now our governor here. If that happens if one of the two candidates speaker okay pulls away. And becomes the clear challenger. That will change the dynamic of the race in ways that there we we can't begin to predict that if it's Kate hill. His support among Democrats will go down but his support among unaffiliated voters will go and that will make they'll it'll make for fascinating fall. You know maybe maybe there was something else going on the rival Red Sox.

It. Well. Really than the sub race of this it's a three way race obviously but the sub race in the one all the listeners ought to be watching is. K Gil baker K Gil baker K Gil baker because no one of those guys will breakthrough. To. The bottom line. It so I just wanna know do you pollsters like have a secret place where all of you get together every year insulin no we took do you -- Tom Kiley appear in Boston.

I don't fact. Most of us -- adults don't get together too often at all was off we have bump into each other you know on television studios and respectful way.

Right he's he's the pollsters -- it's. Quoted in this side well not quoted but you know his poll is talked about in this front page globe story today and he's in my NCAA basketball poll and in fact he won it last year and tonight we're having our awards ceremony -- probably see him tonight now talent. All the fun stuff I heard from you during this into you today. So Scott as always it's great that you come on our show people love his you know love politics here in to have someone a national pollster like you on. Coming on and with the freshest numbers on the governor's race in Massachusetts it's just terrific thanks so much. Thank you. -- 6172666862. Number it's eaten up folks just like we've been telling you it's gonna heat up. We got the big curve. K hill five in the -- evolves there and he's that is 35 we've got this brand new poll. From -- Scott Rasmussen. We've got a front page globe story today politically Patrick's back in the game. Energized governor gained his two rivals bar. It is a great race let's talk about it give you call 6172666868. On the Charlie Manning show. Surely -- maverick on Boston starters and AM 680. W -- ago.