Paul Bachman, Beacon Hill Institute

And six -- W large Kerio.

Back on the Charlie Manning shows 6172666868. The number. Everybody is really paying attention to what's going on in Washington with the health care bill. You have these discussions and discussions and finally they get to a certain point where. It's time to take action and it looks like the action is gonna be taken on Sunday. That's when it looks like Nancy Pelosi is gonna scheduled these votes. On the different things they have to do to get health care through the house. Gives the Robert Gibbs the white house Press Secretary is answering questions now at the White House the president has once again postpone this overseas trip. They feel like I guess they need him here to twist some arms if that's necessary right at the end of of the right at the end to the vote they seemed to be getting closer but then you see things today like Steve lynch tell in the Boston Herald. That he can't vote for the Senate Billiton dad Billy won't vote for it in that he's not gonna do this -- that procedure. That it be in -- disingenuous and he would never participate in that. In the he's one of need to -- Lieutenants he he's one of the floor whips. So it's very very interesting we got a call right before the news about what's going on with this CBO score. What the Democrats did it got to give them credit they're fleeing the media light. Fiddles on all of this. The CBO has not really yet. Looked at the bill and put out anything. And the Phoebe yelled letter says all of those CBO completed a preliminary review of the legislative language. Prior to its relief the agency is not thoroughly examine the -- conciliation proposal. To verify its consistency with the previous draft. This means that the CBO has been trying to score removing target. And the Democrats are making frequent tweaks to get votes being either way. So the CBO is ensured that even scored the final bill and that's why they're calling it a preliminary estimate. Congress daily -- the reports that the final CBO -- will come out on Saturday or Sunday. Which is kinda strange since they're trying to vote on it on Sunday may be president Obama's. Promised that it's gonna be posted on the Internet for 72 hours won't be capped but. I can't imagine. It. Nancy Pelosi and -- lawyer and President Obama wouldn't keep the 72. Hour pledge can you. 6172666860. It's going on. Also we're finding out that. And Niki Tsongas now we had a caller in the first hour who said that she is definitely voting for the bill. She's not really meaning either way. In I'm thinking that if someone like Steve lynch who's a leader in the delegation stay in up on this. In goes the other way would have fewer these other folks following him. Are you already have Mike couple want a saying that it's not a good bill you have John Tierney saying he's undecided. Now Niki tsongas' back in the end this tightly -- In Steve lynch may because Kabila leader and take away some of these votes would be very interesting to see if that happens. Let's go back to your calls that in great today Karen from Westwood were your next of Charlie Manning NW RKO.

I Charlie. I thought of trying I had called -- went to the -- Our adult. And the woman told the that he was leaning towards now so I basically you know -- or -- to tell him that I. I hope that he can get up to the pressure that Pelosi and Obama gonna put on him and are reminded that stop on one voting adds support for senator against health care. And it certainly hoped he would Stanford constituents. And not work you know about to pull out you know Obama. I like -- know a -- he's leading now and I think we can get. People calling it would certainly help.

I think you can work with Steve and stakes of the call Karen glad you're making your calls. I think you know they get that message Steve and Steve Lynch's office and Mike apple want -- office and John Tierney office maybe even the -- is office. And you may also wanna let them know about the latest new Rasmussen report reports. Poll. 50% of US voters say they are less likely. Less likely to vote for the represented in congress this November if he or she votes for the health care plan proposed by President Obama. Only 34 are more likely to vote for their congress members re election. So if you vote against the the bill 50% say they -- probably vote for if you vote for the bill 50% say. They are less likely to vote for you so that's something that folks really ought to know two. 6172666868. The number. There's just so much smart. Writing going on and so much new information pouring across our desk here on the Charlie Manning showed WRKO. Every minute. And there's a terrific piece today by. David -- of the -- Beacon Hill institute. Which is a true riff that group here in Boston in. Professor -- is. One of the smartest guys we know and we wanted to talk about it's called not a jobs bill. And so Paul Batman from the Beacon Hill institute is joining us now on the Charlie Manning should talk about this how are you Paul thanks a comin' on. I'm doing great. What are you hearing on the health care bill what you guys are watching this very closely.

We are we we see that the US CEO has come out with their and number two days you it's gonna cost Ayman. Forty billion dollars there nationalist and -- but. That you know that is it. It keeps I'm moving around the edges of open as they tinker with this so I you know I don't have any insight as to how to vote Mexico but again it's going to be tight against.

Well Nancy Pelosi one of those things that she and the Democrats who were on board with this thing and present -- bomber himself. Are telling us that. This will be a jobs bill. This will create jobs for our country. And obviously jobs are huge issue people were really concerned about the economy we just got the new. Unemployment numbers from Massachusetts today in that think they stated what nine point five so. No new job growth here in our stated all almost 10% unemployment. And Nancy you said that it's gonna create between 250. And 400000. Jobs her year. I guess you folks at the Beacon Hill institute took -- look at this in May be there is some holes -- that argument.

Great well what we it is we you know we start this figured that the year's speaker cannot wait and we took a look at this study that it was based on -- for the American progress study. And we just looked at their methodology -- that method and we took him. We took their methodology and and so that was based on this Serb purported cost savings that this bill was gonna drive down the cost. Of health and health expenditures. In the United States by 683. Billion dollars over the next ten years. And based on that these lower costs would translate into lower premiums which would translate into lower cost of hiring people and therefore. More employment. How well.

I really they went to that level to come up with this number.

Right so but it's all based on these these. Reported cost savings and they're saying that. A 162 billion is gonna come from administrative costs. And another five and thirty billion dollars for the -- that. Which called in the built transforming health care delivery system. Now we took a look at it there's a couple of agencies the -- put out some numbers on this and so did the -- or. Medicare and Medicaid Services also put out. Now they differ quite. Strongly from the stood up for American progress Amber's the year. The Medicaid Medicare services say that. The bill the Senate bill will increase expenditures by about 24 point eight billion dollars over the years. So we plug that into their methodology and discovered if that's true. Then we'll actually lose under 8000 jobs appears.

So it so instead of demeaning jobs like Nancy Pelosi is claiming. Your study says that will actually lose jobs because of health care the Obama care he calling it health care reform could -- it sounds good Obama care.

Right and and then we've looked at the the -- studies that they based the this 530 billion dollars savings on and there are. First they say well. The reason why he amassed Senator McCain may care services and studio come up with different members because they have to he used peer reviewed. Studies in that have very stringent requirements. But here's the -- formal. Studies out there that don't have these formal requirements and if we used in the those studies which are based on very small. Samples in other words if you're pulling -- like -- ten people at a thousand. Right so that and they are using things at Denver and Minnesota in specific areas like diabetes and sank. Well we take it worked in Denver he can't work the entire country that's what it likes things. Well you know what supplies something from Minnesota agriculture to Florida that'll -- So -- we can't count the this cost savings -- the use and then we really look up but there's this low speaker that we. And that we take a look at the cuts how was this deal could be financed what's being financed through cuts in Medicare. And the history of Medicare cuts is not one that they stick it's not very speak. And the biggest. Example of that as the so called doctor six. Basically the -- reimbursement rates physicians and hospitals was supposed to. Ratchet down since 2002. But each year congress or the administration has stopped it and not stop these cuts in the yeah reimbursement rates so now the so called doctor fix it was to go effect this year. Doctor reimbursement cut by 20%. So once we so we looked at that it's okay they're not really cutting Medicare Medicaid typically do we identified about 500 billion dollars he's cut it. They're not going to implement -- we think they're unlikely to import. Then we -- that figure to the 25 billion hours and run at. There -- and that says it comes up actually caught seven under house.

So the so -- You guys are amazing the way you figure this all out more I'm glad to have -- show was the right path on all the stuff so. Instead of -- 250000. To 400000. Jobs. That Nancy Pelosi Barack Obama. Harry Reid Telus that health care reform will produce you say that actually were going to. Lose jobs a 120000. To 700000. Which makes sense to me if this passes.

Right in there and accusing Iran methodology. Even you know more more stories are coming out EP due to fact check yesterday which said no in fact premiums are not gonna go down care. That these these not a lot -- that's not. What's going to happen.

Dick Durbin came out and said anyone who tells you the premiums have -- good down after we pass Obama care isn't telling you the truth. Senator Dick Durbin.

If you look at some of the and -- CMS has some very. In their caveat section of the report they have some pretty strong language about. What may or may not happen they talk about well we put 32 million people on the insurance rolls. Against their will some of them. There may there assuming there are numbers assume that there's going to be no shortage of position there's no price action. Which is. Very doubtful you can't just suddenly at 34 million. People demanding health services being covered in and be covered them grow to secure there's -- without it sort of shift in. Which would.

And we just talked to someone who did a group that did a major national survey of doctors. And they found that if Obama care passes. You know is is many of us as a third of American doctors may stop treating patients. And that 50%. Of the doctors they talked to for the survey. Absolutely said that the level of care all of us receive in health care is gonna go down. So we hear you saying that. We're gonna lose jobs here are this group on that surveyed doctors saying doctors are gonna be leaving and the -- not a -- going down. Here we are out in Washington and the state of Washington where. Walgreens in this is in the state of Washington is now saying we're not taking any more Medicaid patients and that's before even. Obama care passes. It's we're just heading down a bad roads here are way.

Right NIC you know you know. They add -- that doctors are very what's gonna happen medical schools medical schools become as popular as the seminaries are today to be empty.

Yep they in fact they asked doctors if they would recommend to young people who come to them and say I'd like to be a doctor. What do you think they said they would a majority now say they would recommend them not going into medicine.

Right it's -- you know it it just seems too much too quick they're trying this community we also -- I mean I think that if they. Attack the cost issue. Aside from trying to add people to have a government roles that you would automatically. Add people to church to bring down premiums if you do real reform -- premiums down. Make it more affordable people automatically go look at that savings and make the decision that yes at the march -- people to capture.

Paul thanks offered for joining us today that some really great information for our listeners Paul Batman from the Beacon Hill institute say hi to ID torque for us he's one of our favorites and would -- to have. He and and you on a lot over the next few months on the Charlie Manning show because. I always trust the information that you all put together.

Well thanks for having me and -- the United States.

X 6172666860. -- the number 6172666860. It's the number. So here's what's going on just update you the president has postponed his trip again he was gonna go over to Asia and Indonesia -- everywhere and he's not going now. They're trying to schedule a vote for Sunday even though it doesn't look like will have the real numbers. On how much this will cost what the effect will be on the economy. Any of that on the on the new bill that they're they're putting together until Sunday. And the white house press the Terri Gibbs. Just told the press said briefing at the White House that. He and the White House expect that they'll be a vote on Sunday and then Obama care is gonna past so that's where we are that's what's going on. It's gonna be you and your calls to your state reps since in your state Europe US congressional reps that are really gonna make the difference on this. 6172666868. On the Charlie Manning --

Surely a maverick on Boston starters and AM 680. W -- ago.