Baker and Cahill in the Polls

The normal. -- America.

Guys surprise rise. This view of it really was it was on the cosmological I it is the last couple of -- is I just read the biggest smile yeah and you watch in the the health summit. That was separate separate products are responding to your weather comments okay made me smile all the rain coming down there really that was -- how much easier it is to shovel unless the Sino us. -- smile a little bit more that it's you don't even have to a dodge raindrops on a -- like -- I'd tell you are really -- smile when I was just -- in the morning shows. I was watching The Today Show that America's number 1 morning news program they had breaking news this morning which was it's snowing. In New Jersey well while. -- Mike -- we towed it to be death and just an incredible and reelect here are not gonna cause a few flurries today in the third -- there's a good is an amazing poll out today it's in The Herald only. Yeah world exclusive we would call list that indicates. It's all confusing it shows Deval Patrick in the lead with 33%. Of the support in the governor's race. Against him can all the treasures running as an independent defendant and Charlie Baker who is going to be the next governor the Republican. And he -- cleaning but the story is that Charlie it's a race between Charlie and Tim Kayla I'm confused now so I thought if -- would you say your friend to come on.

Go to the preeminent -- not just in Massachusetts but I would say all across the country has sent all the time in dividends by have a lot of us. Yeah I feel like about on the of the branch about halfway would -- you're -- at the very end all the time because. You know you know how did you really know producers -- yeah did did -- while -- thank you -- the last time listeners know exactly -- we go -- the short time listeners are ready to change the station has -- delegates are because they're so stupid and don't -- organized that's -- that's already feels about the people ha ha ha -- It's a continuation to pattern did fill -- this is here he's -- wanna do the poll what's going on -- good morning.

Good morning you know be nice system that Gallup poll that. That everybody expects. In we have our share of those batteries don't live like -- you know would we we have an I don't know them. This is an interesting poll because. The last time we called the governor's race was back sort of pre brown pretty senate in November. And Deval Patrick out of that a sizable lead you know -- He was leaving Tim -- and and Charlie Baker was -- distant third you know back in November it was it was Deval Patrick was 36. Kato was placed extend back and -- that this person.

What was Charlie -- is a name recognition winning at the fifteen points.

All he has you know I think they'll probably only its top. 18%. Who it you don't have it either favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.

And what's happened since that.

Well today. You know well or as of yet as a last night Charlie Baker has surged ten points so he's -- he's almost doubled you've gone from 15%. Who 25%. And he's in second place Bob Barker has dropped three points and Tim Cahill has dropped reports now. All of this has happened. Despite. Any campaign activities with -- by Charlie Baker so literally baker has not done any.

he's just been raising money but there's not been nothing really that he's under raises real visibility no advertising. And no public appearances is no debates he had.

He's made some I guess you know from reports that I've seen that really -- Move no more -- less than any of the other candidates and there are still a huge block of people who would never -- still very 5% of never heard of about thirty fives -- okay.

Yet heard of yet -- governor has basically turned all of his activities in -- won big campaign. So he over this period of time for the governor who lost support is pretty remarkable.

You know he -- a little. But I guess what I looked at both polls you know you've got Patrick dropping three and you've got jailed dropping three and you've got. This Republican really hasn't done anything except. Beat are our Republican who you know is benefiting from the -- Scott Brown surging ten points. So we're seeing this this surging candidate. Coming really from way back. And now is then in second place and within striking distance sort of Governor Patrick the -- the ball.

Walk us through then the the implications for Deval Patrick with the -- time candidacy in the grace Ross primary challenge. What are the implications of that I -- I mean most people would say obscure candidates but in a race like this we have three serious. -- The sometimes the prince -- can be -- decisive.

You know we have a campaign ever raised that might be decided by as few points you're absolutely right. It -- we actually asked the democratic primary question. Who would you vote for between Deval Patrick and grace rocks now that's kind of a layup usually put incumbent governor or democratic.

give people context grace -- Ross is the woman who ran as the Green Party candidate or cause some kind of green coalitions can write it. A few years ago who's really a more left than Deval Patrick which is virtually impossible to do. So you've got her and then you've had a running as a Democrat against Deval Patrick what -- that.

Well you have to 9% as expected yet Christiane percent of the democratic primary voting for Patrick but just being percent. Voting for grace rocks in an additional 26% undecided so. You've got 41%. Who -- grace -- or I'm not sure about the incumbent democratic governor. In the democratic primary. So that that that's certainly a cost of concern at least sport Deval Patrick on the last. In the final election Jill Stein was getting 3%. And basically builds 3% should be democratic voters but there. Paring away at Deval Patrick in need in note in the general election now the 3% to place rock is getting might have been. These 3% he's dropped me jewels. I should just sign right Mike bigotry percentage drop since November but. He -- and growing and it looks like halos and growing at least in this poll. Although he was he was second in the ballot test against Christie in my house so the bottom line is that. Baker -- acceleration and momentum. And we also know that the remaining undecided this 16% were undecided a pre disposed not to vote for Deval Patrick because two thirds of those voters are independents. And independents voting and big blocks for both. --

David said grace Ross 50% to stays CL -- stays fairly consistent. Is it not more likely that some chunk of those disaffected. Liberals. Will then go in the final in moved Jill Stein from 3% -- five. Maybe even seven. What I mean -- does a disaffected liberal -- was they've decided this governor arranged for me. They're gonna look for let you know a liberal who carry the up -- led lights going the other way and say you know we can't drum SRI we -- keep to ball in their because obviously Joel -- I can win the election.

Yeah I you know they're they're maybe a correlation there because. There are two things it could happen either of those last primary voters would go -- is dying. Com -- are -- you know it may affect the turnout they may be disgruntled. And they -- you know -- yeah and you know we may not have roll call voter intensity.

overlooking the more obvious conclusion this thing which would be. Then when they have a chance actually compare -- roster Deval Patrick what the Democrats auto racing -- roster how hot.

I mean aren't paper our paper it looks like there's been another great trust people look -- Patrick people but I I actually pulled up across -- The last voters and looked at how they would vote in the general election. That's a small subset. But 41% of Iraq's voters are saying they would vote for K help. 32%. Would vote for baker and only 5% to Patrick so. That's not that's not. You know. I don't think one can necessarily conclude that perhaps it's gonna get you know we don't hide.

You -- we're assigning no logical Linear thinking tell how people vote and that's not necessarily wise is where you're telling us if so why are you portraying this. In The Herald article you say it's Charlie Baker Tim.

Okay I conclude that -- 544. Items that I'm seeing in the polling. Number one the remaining undecideds and that ballot test the 16%. Are overwhelmingly breaking into our dark. Our patent are bickering -- hope. It's probably the 16% and I'm looking at that's remaining and they are going to you know they're likely voters who -- going to -- poll ballots. That's probably gonna break thirteen and three so does that not just 13% on top of what you're seeing in this poll. That's going to go to -- Or two KL in some form out if it's equally -- effect 30% smacks right out of metal. And you haven't even. You know you have -- evenly divided into 13% then it's still a competitive race but you know as we know from previous you know governor as -- Someone breaks at the end. And if they're non Patrick voters break at the end one way or the other. It's going to be very difficult what do up rhetoric only in the -- authorities the second reason is that you know the opposition vote. True Deval Patrick the Patrick in the big provoked. I mean the paper to -- vote is slow it so if our big who'll benefit if they were dropped fatal benefit but those votes probably at least at this point I'm not gonna rotate. -- And finally you know we're looking at are surging. Charlie Baker one thing we know from polling -- when you when you're picking up a surge you don't know this is the look at the beginning of a surge the end of the -- a juror in the middle of the surge. I do know that. Baker has very 5% never heard he's growing so as he continues to introduce themselves to voters. Chances are his numbers and his favorability -- go optimized doctor I'm gonna go up.

Yeah I it to its interest and I think all three of the Big Three none of them doing the high visibility stuff we we expect out of campaigns. That is trying to generate visibility and commitment. He's doing the low key stuff as you said no way -- probably no greater frequency than Tim K -- is fundraising speaking at different events in the governor obviously. Always has that opportunity go to the chamber of commerce go to the kiwanis. And a whole variety of things so I think throughout doing that it is interest in the -- seems to be -- if I had to guess Dave let's say. It's probably the it is its probably an early part of the surge some of the residual from the Scott Brown energy and enthusiasm and just his own kind of like worked out that.

They'll be no way to help out and so we do you know of another poll -- so you know what what this surge airs Sunday and if you develop -- point well taken you know if you are you know you're you're clinging to a lead. You know with with true folks who have big bases like he independent voters. Voting and big -- proportions against you. I think you know I think you have to hope for a -- possibility. That both. The Republican in the independent will divide that airtight Deval Patrick -- so finally and so closely. So that you remain competitive.

Our resolution becomes like how -- that requires an analog -- to to come up with that kind of precise split and it doesn't usually happen but it's a hard thing for guy Tim -- position I think to maintain this credibility through the race. There's a natural inclination for people to go to the two polls Susan there.

There is but -- you know. The funny thing about the jail voters is right now the polls telling us that he's the most comfortable place to go. Yes. Either Patrick continues to fall which is also which is happening or just paperwork ball. A big sort of fault or -- Deval Patrick we're all. People are most comfortable. I hit it less probable -- bit out that the democratic governor big purple or voter would go to Patrick our our core Patrick support. Would go to baker but. They seem more probable each of them. To go to -- also of -- and then there are you know he's just biggest danger is if he slips further. Then another perception is gonna be that he's not viable and unity is viable. Are any is the key is we know often appalled the best second choice but -- heck out of this -- big hurt you know is. Is surging into second place.

Terry -- Suffolk University we appreciate your background on today's -- great -- are great calls that they -- by the way and we -- you gonna -- we've got an -- coming up you've written the book game change -- could not put it down and I put it down one of the -- joins us -- right after we go to break at the bottom of the -- if you might wanna -- of that I don't know those darn -- okay David -- breaking that took down a little -- this is -- any insight analyst.

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