Steve Syre

Your children home. From school if there's column for him I loved it speaker -- Feinberg. School. So I think I figure out who's running the government now -- The four weather forecasters. That he said today. That's why we always say they say it is going to sell this weekend it said Brett yet he said they haven't decided what. Is that that to closing the borders is called for and he of course is Barack Obama he is Barack Obama but he doesn't make the decisions they did say the weathermen they do apparently no weathermen which are wide bill there's any -- when he went elect affected he's doing outreach to various. The other guys -- rather than just acting as a so you know so their final arbiter of and Dick Gephardt what's going -- go to bed at. -- what's gonna pay you know every day at this time we do the bus to business report with the Boston Globe -- look forward to that and I'd like to -- let Steve know that this -- from a Todd Feinberg and me of course Tom Finneran is being brought to you by Comcast call 1800 Comcast. The Comcast triple play notorious --

He don't like. You know yeah -- what she did she like that that's right.

Did Jake it used to be even this simple stadium remember that -- recalled the -- for a while I was at Jacobs be alone -- a Q that's a good Natick. Mostly -- out shrew like. A so the no I don't know if you've heard right field very good Steve very good Todd is not there is -- a look at the though right I was very and -- bill. OK thank you see you assert your congress are. -- interesting story of the globe home sales dropping 118. Per cent in the.

Versus yeah its just its number of media numbers for -- stake in the first three months of the year which. -- I don't think the news is as bad as nearly as bad as that on -- state it here in our area but you know the numbers of the numbers in the first quarter.

So you're saying it's may be western mass or let --

I think two things what is I think you're looking at it a snapshot in time which doesn't necessarily reflect. -- exactly the same circumstances -- and right now and plus and mix of things going on inside those numbers are. Although they're painful are I think things that have to take place. For the things start to get better and you know but if you look at the overall numbers. Both the volume of sales in the price that -- they're taking place that. A weight down as you pointed out 18% down on the median price that means 253000. Dollar dollars that's like -- a 2002. Number to put that in context. At the same time as the volume was down about 11% which is again a pretty big number but it in here here's where I think. Some of that is not as bad in his it -- ways strange good news is that if you look. City by city in town -- town in the major markets. You find that a number of the -- future towns and cities. The median price is actually going commentary -- places like Cambridge and Brookline in Concord. But what's happening there is that the volume is going weighed down you know. Brookline is one example the median prices up 13%. But the sales volume was going down 57%. So you've got. The market where if people don't get their price they just don't sell and it goes. We don't -- the actual number of transactions kind of goes up up.

second chair in the Trenton the transactions off a cliff but that would artificially keep the price -- right.

Yeah it where people don't -- to sell and so they're holding out it's it's a market where people support to hold out. And edit view -- up in in places like that there's always going to be. Some group of buyers who really want to be and that. Cities -- towns and are willing to pay up and that's what you see there but. Turn that upside down no look at places like Brock do Lawrence and you can see that the prices are just. Getting crushed it down 27% Lawrence 33% in Brockton.

Look at my community amenity and well -- and Amanda.

exactly -- has gone way up there it's up 20% brought in 26% Lawrence and what that reflects is that you have. A lot of -- foreclosed properties in which the folders which are in many cases repossessed or or. Banks getting ready to trend is so. Property in some sort of transaction. Biting the bullet and saying we're gonna get killed on the price but let's just do it and get it out using a lot of volume of this and that's a necessary thing to clean out. All this foreclosed in trouble real estate inventory that was talked about. Many times before and they -- it might point has always been and continues to be that. This is kind of a necessary step to the clear all the joke out of the markets and get a more stable broad. Recovery going on and you know again it's no fun to see all these lower prices but when you see. The high volume low price in. Struggling neighborhoods and the exact opposite in kind of Tony neighborhoods that I think that's. The reflection of what's going on inside that big pictures so these numbers. -- again -- overall numbers are really pretty bad but I think inside them there's some glimmers of hope and now keep in mind that. The first three months of the year and going forward I think if we don't have any. Hard information on this so what. But anecdotally I think you're seeing -- much more robust spring buying season you've got several things going for you right now. First is really low mortgage rates these that the 5% minus 5% rates are. A phenomenon that happens quite recently and don't get back to do to be as bad first quarter transaction so that new. Plus you've got this big first time. All buyer credit that's out there that you know eight -- which is no real money and I think if you put. Those things together we have lots of inventory that is in most towns if not. You know the -- in Brooklyn -- To -- I I think. You know I I'm hoping that this quarter is something where you start to see it modest recovery. You know we're not -- I could be happy times -- again all of the sudden but in terms of setting -- bottom and started to recover. I'm hoping that's what we're going to see in this current president.

Quarter when there's something like a tax incentives to get people to go out and buy is that actually. Helping things or does it just pull people sooner. Into the marketplace so you pick up a smattering of activity now that would have been happening at three months.

I suspect. You're mostly right on that but I think. I think there are people who could -- The problem with the market like this where prices are down down down people sit on the -- for a while and eventually they just get. Stuck sitting on the -- they always think that there's going to be one more notch down or one more property that's going to be coming onto the onto the market and basically get a market going needs something to get those people off the stands and so yes eventually they might have been into the market but I think it's important. To get that going now and -- again.

Every other means that -- doesn't go as deep.

It doesn't go that deep and there is a name some confidence and in some mentor to the market where first time home buyers are going to be a larger forest. Resolving that part of the market is an important element in getting real estate more broadly to recover.

Okay so maybe any year old the other recessions say your predictions if.

Real estate recession no holds all things. Get. Aha well I. I think -- it is obviously as we've said before you know -- don't rock bottom problem that we have to start stopping before. Everything else gets better certainly in the financial system and I think. You know I think in terms of of real estate you're gonna see. Slow improvement through this quarter in this subsequent to quarter's this year and I think next year you'll see some recovery. I I think we're amber that I summary company capital along the way but it as as things look right now I think. You know a slowing declines for this quarter perhaps as many as the next two quarters going forward and setting up some sort of a recovery next year yes.

Steve we've talked in the past about. Housing prices being a and an Ankara dead weight on some potential economic growth of Massachusetts in the end. MIA being over. Overly optimistic and I need to think that this might over a set of several be -- be beneficial to our long term economic growth or Massachusetts would just. Housing prices becoming more realistic. That they were for the you know the previous ten years.

I think that housing prices. What you can look at it two way uses is. Is the house portable based on how much money I make or is the house. Price competitive based on what it costs compared to what houses costs and other parts of the country. And I think you know we're still who we're going to be remains a relatively expensive market compared to other places in the country and I don't think that's gonna change and in any time I conspiracy in the future but on the other point. In the house -- portable based on how much money at stake what's my job I believe my job is secure and that's. One of the that the underlying thing that could sort of upset. You know station people lose their jobs or afraid they're going to lose their jobs. But if you're into the employment situation is settled. I I think this issue of real estate prices relative to people's incomes it is makes as much more competitive than we are certainly a couple of years ago.

In just to give a prospective before I let you go I'm reading. From the Phoenix business journal Phoenix home prices are down. 51. This is Phoenix -- Phoenix Arizona and the Boston Phoenix is not the -- off Phoenix soc column from time to time from breaking out of Phoenix home prices are down 51%. From their peak they have the designation of the biggest that's kind of a negative way of looking I prefer to say they still have 49% of their value of the -- The other is that the rounding out the top five Phoenix is the loss leader Las Vegas which is getting -- same thing CN -- I find that a little surprised. Miami -- how much of San Francisco down that doesn't it doesn't give a number on the other is not given number of the other sparks if I'm glad Steve.

I was just gonna point out that that you'd you'd hit these hot spots where you know so much of overbuilding and foreclosure activity has taken place and Las Vegas and Miami strike me. Is that the real epicenter of that you can you guys can get one of those can't does -- Miami for next to nothing it's split it between the two yeah.

I can well what we recruited directly. In. Talk I'm. Would want to get -- again that's because he'll be -- on its south beach she'll fit right in -- thank you very much we'll see you tomorrow Steve's I have.