Matthew Dowd -ABC News

What you and I could talk about it but most importantly we would not be educated analysts we spoke to Matthew -- from ABC news Matt Dowd welcome this is Tom Finneran and state senator Bob Dylan hunt veterans forum here in Boston on AM 680 WRKO. And thank you for joining us just within the past few days Matt you've. Kind of bush issued -- top five reasons. Why John McCain cannot win the presidency our audience here in Boston we love politics and I New Hampshire neighbors and friends to the north one of the battleground states they're focused on it as well thought would give you a chance to share your perspective on the difficulties that McCain has in -- our opinion cannot overcome.

Sure I think you know at this point with a week left in -- hundreds of thousands of people party voted it's going to be very very difficult for him. Matt any service successful comeback I mean it yeah -- impossible it's almost impossible. And you know -- that laid out when -- all we're just talking about the dominant. Problem is the political environment -- John McCain -- separated and which is the president was lower approval ratings and Richard Nixon during Watergate and.

As a country being hot 90% of people -- country's off on the wrong track and.

You know that fact alone and then you add in some other things I think the -- pick and -- to be a net drag on the ticket. It him that the majority of the country believed that she was unqualified I think John McCain hurt his brand. This -- the sort of independence and willingness to talk flag and neither side of the field he heard that over the last few years in. The Al those things up and then answer current economic crisis it makes it. An almost impossible task for for John McCain two emerges the next seven days.

In hindsight to Matthew -- if you. Were in a position to advise. Senator McCain in terms of a vice presidential pick scene but we've seen over these past several weeks the the great initial buzz and acclaim around Sarah Palin and then the steady decline. In the public's you know assessment of her skills and her her her readiness for the vice presidency. Who might have turned out to be a better vice presidential pick for Senator McCain.

Williams bite my feeling how long it it was like anything in life whether it's vice presidential pick. Or your own personal decision making your own life you gotta go with your gut your gut instincts as -- McCain's gut instincts said he should've picked Joe Lieberman that we wanted. We argued for internally among -- folks and you should I think you should know we've sort of -- and I think it's he would pick Joe Lieberman. He would have had to fight at -- at the Republican convention which would out of that a bad thing I think in the end because I think it would demonstrated his independence and and the worst thing could be this year haven't aren't -- back himself. I think he should -- went with his gut he could have said you know for really going to change Washington will -- things fundamentally different which means. You know it's just -- dominated by one party.

That would have given him at least a window I think the opportunity. To make an argument in the final thirty days that he has not been able have.

And you know I I'd look at but -- all the dynamics that -- cited ranging against the you know the McCain -- ticket. And yet there are people who continue to suggest that the polls show this narrowing and it's no longer a double digits it's done a single digits. There's a week left McCain is arguing the read polo see Obama triumvirate. As being you know a very very worrisome development. -- around up there on the campaign trail mapped out from ABC does that argument have traction. In the battleground states.

Well you know at. At first about the history is that fairly stable the last two weeks and I think the McCain campaign knows that which is what you're seeing inciting. You wouldn't see in fact they were making a move -- in rising in the the polls so. The races in fairly stable which is Barack with a about it sixers simply revenge. I don't think at this point the country cares about read in polo you know I think they want to turn the page. President Bush and they've decided that Barack Obama is the best person. That most likely to bring change to Washington of the country is sick of sort of how Washington operates and their best hope they believe. Is Barack Obama now -- how it turns that we don't know -- the first year operas which I think is going to be very important. The Democrats and you know -- legacy going forward how they perform in the first six months or year that. The country's history turn the page and I don't think it really matters what litany of characters. John McCain. Without it's just the country's ready to move.

Our guest is Matthew -- he is the political analyst for ABC news -- delighted to have them on here giving us his insights and perspective on the McCain Obama. -- of for the presidency. You should know what I meant that my cohost state senator Bob -- he's a Republican served in the Massachusetts legislature number he has. I'm a Democrat I Acer of that was -- Bob Hedlund -- serving. I served for a number years in the Massachusetts house as well he would each of us he's a Republican I'm a Democrat. We think that the press. Has gone into full fledged lovers swooned over Barack Obama. That they -- if they ever. Engaged in any vetting it was cursory it was superficial. And it did not R rated did not reach the level that you know -- for example has been. Subject it to what -- take as a -- you an insider can you know read about that if you want but I'm just take -- yet take on the on the media's approach to this whole campaign.

Chair and I haven't done work and democratic campaigns. For years and years before I did the president's two presidential campaigns bush was the first Republican or for having worked on both. To me it's always. Whatever the first sign of losing campaigns when you attack the media. -- did -- go after the -- the media's fault I remember the environment in 2004. It wasn't positive for George W. Bush it was a very positive for John Kerry remembered 2000. In the end they'll let the past thirty days of the campaign wasn't positive and you you you can win. Or lose it doesn't really matter. All that much it's something you have to deal went -- so. As the most of the mainstream media you know then kinder gentler without Barack Obama probably sell. But it really doesn't should make that much difference if you have an argument to make him a message that resonates with people in the campaign that effectively you have that you. You can get through any any environment that your and if if that was the case Reagan would have never gotten elected in. You know bush would have never gotten elected avenues you have to -- play on the field that your and you have to organize your efforts in the way they can be effective.

You're assessment of the issue of race on this you know it's kind of the unspoken topic. In you know lots of people see it I guess breaking both ways a huge pride India for. Gigantic turn out in the African American community unlike anything that's ever been seen or experienced before. And at the same time some suggestions that you know pockets -- slices of white America are going to be very very resistant even to a charismatic guy like Barack Obama how how do you. Fact -- that in two what's going to happen a week from today.

I think both of those are true I think there are pockets I mean obviously this is. There are pockets of of the country that are still reluctant to vote for an African American man. And then also as you say this huge enthusiasm in the African American community for this guy. So that exists I don't think there's any hidden latent racism. That's going to circuit surprising -- on Election Day I think. That they have hope Bradley effect which is the race in California -- Bradley African American ran for governor and ended up losing in the end. Was overblown and how we talked about it because those polls show the race tightening in the last few days -- was tightening already. I think that if there are are are problems with Barack Obama because at this rate it's already been factored into people's voting. How they say they're going to voting so if Barack Obama leads by five or six or seven points going into Election Day you'll win back five or six or seven points on Election Day.

Let me shift gears and try to anticipate of Iraq presidency -- that's obviously a comfortable with that projection you've outlined for the audience how you know the -- almost the impossible task that lies ahead of John McCain and -- You think Joe Biden will be treated the way FDI treated Truman as a vice president virtually kept in the dark with no communication whatsoever. All would be of more act. Active cold. Participation. With a vice president this pot apostle of the inside team every -- sitting with the president around that table on a whole variety of issues.

I think it's getting he's going to be an active participant I think that one of the big reasons why Barack Obama picked up back it was because of his experience and because of the you know -- more importantly is his ability to sort of say that he disagrees with in the middle of the meeting heard me say that's that's wrong and.

And I think Obama brought that -- because he wanted. That opinion.

a person it's that are better around the world -- seen a lot so I think he'll be at.

to participate in in discussions and meetings and decisions that are being made and in the interest thinks things in me will be you know well he assembles around them.

other key posts in my gases don't have a fairly. Diverse group of folks have been brings in Republicans -- bring in independents -- have a diverse group of folks around. And I think that it's actually a great thing for the country right now.

Matthew -- as I guess he is the political analyst for ABC news on the hill what state senator Bob Evelyn and meet Tom Finneran confederates for a but wondering what you sense is of Sarah Palin does she have a political future. Going forward.

I think he's honest national stage for at least a while. She's very popular among that huge segment of the Republican Party. She's obviously. You do charismatic had the trail attractive candidate. You know new on the scene I think she'll be in the national limelight for awhile and I think the republic shall be a leader. In the Republican Party. You know if you took a poll in January after the leading candidates for president in 2012. She would be in the -- so she's got a stage right now the state and the other part the other people in the Republican Party. Are going to have to deal with.

when you said should be in the top three I'm curious as to who the other two would be the other one besides met rob I suspect and Mitt Romney former governor here in Massachusetts is one of them but I'm interested in your --

Yeah I think Mitt Romney is definitely one of them and I I think -- you distribute that two of them I think could be the leading candidates I think the question. You know that don't ever know it -- and who else out there is is is -- service start position themselves as the leader in the Republican Party. In emerging from that I don't know if Giuliani has any any desire to have sort of be involved in this missed Mike Huckabee. But you know if you took a look at the two candidates from this race is over on November 5 I think that it can mean they'll come everybody's mind is there -- Mitt Romney.

mentioned Joe Lieberman as having been discussed and probably John McCain's got choice got preference. For the VP for reasons. You know I guess -- for for some reasons obviously was to either talked out of it. Changed his mind what does Joe Lieberman's political future in the United States senate demanded -- get exiled to a no man's land by you have by the Democrats.

I don't know why I noticed this morning they they're talked about sort of giving him off the committees here or whatever right that there's that discussion. So I have no idea if he ends up in -- telephone Booth somewhere where he has his own meetings say idea. I had don't know what they're going to do it some meaning that if -- well respected by a lot of people up there. But he isn't this. -- is he's -- and no man fled so it'll we'll see what happens after Election Day in my guesses he's not to be going to many meetings haven't -- with the Democrats these days.

About the ultimate surprise Matt if there's an Obama administration Obama reaches out and plucks Joe Lieberman for some kind of cabinet position Holmes has that for surprise.

I would I that would be a big surprise I can't imagine that happening I think that would so I would so. Offends so many different people -- that -- as -- how many different levels I wouldn't be the.

I ultimate act of unity though it in and in any administration that is. Trying to bill itself as a unifying force in the country.

Yeah I I agree with that I think they'll you'll probably pick other ways he'd make -- gates as Defense Secretary I would be surprised at that it's been gone through their mind. At this sort of -- in the policy that we think is their right final continue that I would be surprised if the try to talk some other folks that have been. The Republican Party in the coming -- so I think he'll do it but I think -- do it insert a select ways.

And I guess the question this is something that bothered me as one who opposed. The bail out okay. We use with -- with John McCain I guess we're going to try to second guess at this point and this is on the assumption the McCain doesn't deter in this race around. But there should McCain not be successful. With McCain now criticizing. Bush economic policies which in my estimation is a little. Little too late to be doing that in this race obviously. I note that he dated after bush already voted absentee. -- Let down. Given the fact he's criticizing bush economic policies. And he's playing up this gang of three thing with -- Reid Pelosi. And in Obama. Wouldn't it have been a heck of a heck of a move on on on McCain's pot. Who have come out against the bailout really separated himself from the -- franks the crystallize Obama bush. And stand with kind of that middle America that didn't feel right about this and of course -- separate itself from the Wall Street tycoons were benefiting from the us. Aside from the merits of whether -- the bill makes sense politically would that have been a great move.

Yes absolutely. I absolutely would have it would have separated himself in the midst of that's what the American public was at best mixed about it. And it -- said you know note you know the usual thing of everybody get together make any decisions -- that. Best interest of the average -- yes absolutely I think it would have been it would have separated him it was giving people a second look at him I don't know -- would have won the election. But it definitely at a time. When he was making decisions I think that we're hurting himself it would have given the country's second look at a guy and then it would really shown his Independent.

Instead yeah instead of instead of I think watching things because. I was left rather puzzled. With his maneuvering exit that time when he suspects -- candid campaign that. Yet it and and it was going to play this leadership role and went back and I'm not quite sure what he did in. I don't quite -- leadership role of bill Wall Street anyway but it seemed it was a bit of that gimmickry on his part and it was all downhill from there.

Yep I I agree with that I think at a time when he -- that I shot it sort of re energizing and getting the country there look at him again. He went along with what everybody else was doing it didn't separate himself.

You imagine being on the same side of an issue is George Bush. Barney Frank Chris Dodd Wall Street tycoons a pop it out. For -- Matt we've been great with the time one last question Joe Biden last week Canada kind of a prophecy. In which he said look trust my judgment on this one Barack Obama within six months is going to be severely tested by the international community. You know and and none of us really have a crystal ball line access to the information that Joe Biden and others would have. What you of sense of what -- prediction. As to what is the most likely source of that international test.

I you know I don't know I think -- I think Joe Biden is probably right you it was whoever got elected president was going to be faces because the globe it's. We're in such -- anxious stayed in the glow that was various things terrorism and and the economy in all of those sorts of things and now also in a related to each other. I think it would happen with either president I don't know where will come from and in what form. I guess is that international incident may have something more to do it with the economy than an actual. Act of terror but you know I. I think he's probably right whoever was elected president going to be tested right off.

Right off about bulletin Matthew dowdy event fabulous with a time state senator Bob -- of course made Tom Finneran. Appreciate your time.