Dave Paleologos

Tom Finneran EAU while listening to thinner -- forum on AM 680 WRKO. It is Monday. Columbus Day about 837. Thereabouts. And that we do all these presidential on Mondays with holly -- job well known Republican consultant and strategist author about. Political lives in -- corner in the a Boston Herald everybody effort. And blogger for The Herald and warrants -- well known Democrat op has told Iran that. And man about town a big big shot attorney at Holland the night -- big -- attorney delighted to have. Most importantly we're delighted to welcome because a lot of our conversation this morning. Has been about how these polls have narrowed a little bit zogby Gallup so on and so forth well. You know those of the national names anybody who knows what's going on says check in with paley logos this that they apparently -- always seems to get it. So we had delighted to reach out to -- friend. Dave -- logos preeminent -- for Suffolk University channel seven and many others to hate David welcome and good morning. Good morning how we also it. We actually saw grace and we love a day wind is -- to talk about it even on a holiday is news because I'd be in Gallup. Indicate. Narrowing. I was surprised to read this David I thought. Last week's turbulence in the stock market was dreadful news for McCain. Expected that Obama would might be widening. What's. I think -- a fairly widely acknowledged lead. But that doesn't seem to be the case some wonder what you are seeing and hearing.

Well only one poll is showing only part in most -- it's only went I think. We -- believe what happened in the race closing. In in our objective last week what we found was that. Obama opens up believe last week. Two of the factory closed the gap among. Old white men and women and because the economy it was a big issue because the first week in October is when people read for a what is statements from July August September 3 quarter. When he connected thoughts. Out with the polling data that chose -- people blame Republicans -- That we think at least in the -- that once stated hounded or. Widening of the Obama lead them McCain still leads among older white men and women. By the margin has decreased. Or. Increased overall.

What do you expect then that John McCain has to do all the real do. At the debate on Wednesday night and have you seen. Movement in the aftermath of any of these debates thus --

Well most people say that the have their mind made up but they are very fluid to do it got two components. You've got the people who are. Truly undecided in the ballot -- about five or 6%. And then you've got about 12% of people who are picking a candidate today. Who's sitting right changed and so you're really looking at about fifteen to 70%. Of people. Who could go either way and that's why -- the movement in the tracking polls. Closing a little.

And Dave -- this 5% that haven't made up their mind what is the likelihood that they're going to vote. At this point are they -- highly likely voters or they you know not you know the high percentage -- people.

only enter -- people who are likely voters that is people who save it very or somewhat likely to vote as a precondition of the service so. At which point five or 6% undecided. They're telling us that the Friday that it certainly that there are very or somewhat likely to vote. If you look at just the category of be undecided. All the likely of the intensity level they're probably are slightly all of the larger pool of respondents.

One of the things they usually happens at this point election if you're going against an incumbent. In if they had they these voters had made up their minds usually break the way of the and the challenger. And this situation where it's an open seats are you seen any trends where we might think people are going to break a certain way.

It depends on the state in -- a couple of by the dynamics -- play I don't think it if people realized wanted in the battleground states for example. In the old days you could you could drop a bomb -- at the end of the campaign -- move. You know today I'm I'm just looking at that battleground states got the pot out of Colorado. Change oh Florida Ohio and North Carolina. Cancer a lot of these states early voting. So a lot of states and well in the weeks ago -- there in person or by absent. And some have no excuse were quiet as preconditions to voting by mail so they'll beat you that states like Colorado with the percent of people will be will will have already voted by election or Florida. And so a lot of what have to happen a lot more pressure on the Spain. In the debate coming up in the last debate because there will be people who will just avoid the rush and no doubt they'll order it by Hillary grosses.

David I've read that up to 30% of the American electorate is going to have already voted by the time November 4 comes. You know put it but I think it a larger issue was really what -- that you -- you're -- and I mean the fact that you're pulling in Virginia -- In mid October. And it's and it's a Bellwether states it's it's really one that could go either way at this point. He's very and I I would suggest very good news for Barack Obama. That Virginia is even a play or the Colorado which aside from going for Bill Clinton in 1992. Hasn't gone for a Democrat in fifty years so the fact that that simply is -- good news for the Obama Biden ticket is that right.

It is today I mean Virginia basically has voted ten consecutive times -- the Republicans nominate. So it's kind of a good news -- historic good the good news for Obama is that we are pulling Beijing to Tibet uses well. There are potentially couple pieces of there's the others is that if these states fall back on historical trends. Most of the battleground states. Bowed head at that. For the Republicans more than the Democrats that includes Florida Colorado should note that out of Virginia it was and it row. North Carolina even New Hampshire.

In -- McCain wins those essentially that's game set match that's all right.

Buddy -- on the tape yeah yeah they're just not there's no room for error error in at all and it Andyaat. It and you know I know that the confidence level on the Obama side is high and justifiably so when you look at the red blue map today but. Consider that the democratic nominee hasn't gotten over 50% since 1976. In 1976. Jimmy Carter got 55. Below point 8% of the vote that was the last time the democratic nominee. Nationally. Got over 50% of the vote when Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996. He only got 43 and 49% of the vote.

The last time David the president had approval ratings this low was in 1976 -- a for a while they were following. Richard Nixon was right Gerald Ford but. Yeah. But you won't go -- tomorrow would be the impact and I think this is very important very interest is the impact the race. To all on this whole issue on two -- one is it in the extent that there are races that are going to vote for an African American at the top of the -- democratic side. It's actually David -- the extent to which. African Americans who might otherwise sit on the on the sidelines or are suddenly going to vote. In the gonna vote in in higher numbers -- I think we're going to receive before and how do you include that in -- sampling of how do you discounted. As necessary.

What we do was we try to take a look at heat increased registration numbers in what particular out. Then that's the demographics that most companies and and it -- basically an intensity number that is. What the intent of this are based on the register to not a perfect science is more about war. But you've got to dynamics and I think like in Massachusetts were only hold the Deval Patrick raised. You know there was a lot of discussion about whether or you know the problems but it went right what we call when he wanton and they're pretty much landed there. So in Massachusetts didn't matter but in my -- state that are remote in the in play you're like Egypt and North Carolina. Where you have an offset that -- without potentially people won't vote for an African American based on one issue. On the one on the one side but then it's offset by increased. Younger of voter participation. In increased at the American voter participation in intensity with the demographics so. You know it did the test with a not so.

How -- you down country with what acorns doing right now going out there and registering all these people and getting them to vote like an Ohio keep your scene that day you know past you know registration forms and then -- also passing up out forms at the same time. And Andy don't just kind of debts -- skewing the data also.

I think you know when you look at the -- votes that are -- that a state like Ohio. It's significant but I mean it won't bet Ohio will be one of those states -- I'm guessing. That. Are going to see you know a big. You know democracy a few thousand votes out of there are I mean I don't. If you look at the last race in Ohio and in the margin of victory was a 100000. Vote was. You know bush carried by. So a few thousand votes. -- based on the pulling -- it was a it was basically a 2% went which was over or 100000 votes so. It is possible but like -- say that you're going to have lost -- There are some companies and Ohio that. You know don't get counted -- poll you know I mean. You know its its -- if you have you have 600 -- respondents in that it is statewide poll. There. You go if it's a very small county. Doesn't reach half a percent. And that's six armed with 600 sample it may not get a complete but to complete because of maybe small -- out is why conservative. Is that you know you may have been. -- accept that there -- pulses are picking up small places like in Massachusetts don't Nantucket out. You know about probability of somebody at a state like Poland and -- apparently. Getting called it's very low and the reason is because there are out these. Has so few motorists that you know that that's the probability is that you know. The -- someone help -- you know responding are very low that.

The data and to see you pretty good at predicting. How we get around these days with you know with everybody you know converting off of land mines on -- straight cellphones are screening out you know how heart how much harder is -- accurate sample these days.

But it's hard to get eight a -- of any its stock after. I just not just young voters. See that you -- the question is is there a marked difference between someone who has a land line verses cellphone or landline and cell phone -- verses just itself or only. Young people. Don't get excluded. As a percentage in -- Serb. Page the the people who only have cellphones. Can't be called by a land -- based pollster.

You only get kids that live at home with mom. --

People have cellphones and let my consult floats and missed some data that suggest that there is a market that did that there are some differences. In terms you don't -- Sort of -- target. But we're still building that database that was still trying to figure out whether or not it'll -- more conservative or liberal as a voting -- But they're not -- account that and then not they're not underrepresented. I think that's the fallacy of -- so I can't speak also. Our voices and -- younger people are recorded. And in the proper way. But only the people who has cellphones -- excluded yes.

David in the polling you've been doing Ian seen from the battleground states in particular I'm curious. Is the -- to this seemed to be any political legs up mileage to be gained. By pointing out they -- Reid Pelosi congress. And if Barack is elected -- you know there goes any sense of restraint any any check or balance does that. Poll well for John McCain.

On balance it's joy it but it hasn't yet you know it is you know that there have been notion that. You know all false levers are controlled by one party. You know traditionally has worked supporter Terrell. It hasn't sewed up because economy is really toward spring. All of the other issues I mean I have never seen situations in my you know and private ports in the eighties. Where you have the titan usually the top issue whereas you know 3132. The next issue is when -- went twenty to -- Bit that the economy is fifty to 53 double wide you have to go all the latest single digits. To the Iraq War -- order other issues. Health care you know post 52 number one issue diamond night. You know Iraq War and he -- evidence that it but the biggest. Disparity in terms of all of the other issues so. That's kind of what John McCain have to you have to compare contrast in the debate and you know what his -- and -- so that it knows that a little.

Well I'm sure you're gonna be watching on Wednesday night David and then measuring holly -- and I will all be watching as well I'll I'll listeners and we as soon as is the custom. Want to make sure that we say thank beauty you can make and so much I don't let your heart what's going on in Virginia and elsewhere that state -- logos. I column are old polls the polls for lots of people and he's a great great guy and a great pollster.