Dave Paleologos

Hey welcome back Tom Finneran -- our number two appearance forum -- AM 680 WRKO -- clapper would of course my cohost the -- in the act Yost RKOs studio. On my 27 hour of of being awakened they have been camped accounting happy hang in half ago Mike you -- this is a great day.

I I and I'm very excited about being here and and I am very excited about the color tonight to septa should keep this this is happen org chunky. This as the week couple weeks it's the democratic convention we've got some great guests lined up even urging Senator John Kerry is going to give us.

really do mean to be between the lieutenant governor. Obviously with the with the business report we yours -- with -- but with lieutenant governor Tim Murray John Kerry. We're gonna have Eric can't he is a minority whip leader in the congress Republicans so we'll get a little bit of a Republican -- different aspect of strings somewhere it's syllables -- classic gotta be helpful everything and SP going to polish -- it's flat -- little bit about the name -- Leo low goats I know it it'll and I know we and we -- and -- and you know. Darted out there exactly and the happy about that -- Those two paley logos Brothers they're crazy hey David welcome back good morning thanks for joining us. Good morning -- window.

I am just terrific David it's great to have -- I've been up all night and I am so excited you know me I'm just a junkie I was dying to get you on the line you're the best pollster in America. And and you're gonna you're going to spray paint -- on me. What's it last night -- you think.

We -- believable you -- these conventions really about telling the story and you know the first couple of days Democrats -- to sort of overcome a lot of objections that people have. You know the the -- activity. With rank and file Democrats. You know some problems that people. In the past show are about. And tonight the whole Clinton divisive in this you know that have to be repaired before we can get to what revisionists.

So yes they just in a little bit indeed defensive. Maneuvering here as opposed to. Kiwi being you know here's here's the pro active. Program. That Democrats stand for a fight for that Michelle last night was essentially. Coming out of the defensive crouch and yet not wanted to look like -- that she was that's what they're -- activism. Adequately give you heat you tend to cringe when you constantly attacked as being an American bidder chip on the shoulder. Militants whatever whatever words they might -- his right.

Well yeah I was a great speech but you know all of this is older and as as Marjorie -- you know and you know ultimately you can't we can't locket were Roman explain your vision without overcoming objections for less than. You know -- shame that you know the first couple of days past -- be. Dedicated. To overcoming these objects people out before you lay -- that visions.

But David won't come the Republicans have the exact same challenge next week I mean this isn't that this is what convention to form what they don't just offered to your to do. They go for the whole week so that you can begin by eight. Winning over the broadest number of folks who didn't like you were no -- in the first place and then once you've done that and you this waged. I think that's the right word choice of loses we're -- Clinton is feeling so tonight we'll be Clinton night. And then tomorrow we start with. Now let's move forward and define where our campaign is all about my we're better than John McCain yes.

Absolutely is that different says that the Republicans didn't have a long drawn out -- primary. And I think people at least you know for. Pollsters they employ we saw how deep the division wise and went right through late may of 2008. Whereas on the Republican side it really only lasted until a week after Super Tuesday and then everything kind of folded up -- would -- so. They certainly have to overcome objections. As well but they're different objections.

I think I that's a great point for example Giuliani supporters Romney supporters might be disappointed but. This does that this is no we had -- as how I felt as eighteen million women sand. UGS screwed us basically. That's the feel that they have. I always say that's they have the feel that the process the propriety the so called leaders whether it's devolved America John Kerry Ted Kennedy locally or rather we got screwed and so it and you have this collision I think David has talks about -- so so -- like he of this collision between these two. Absolutely traditional democratic allies. African American community and women collision course here between Hillary and Iraq so the I think they're -- I think there's some some bruised feelings that have to be attended to.

But it is David at that as a poster. This morning and tomorrow morning will be start to tell. This story as you say as to how to how effective the Democrats are being our head have been and what -- bounce. That you posters are always talked about is -- bounce coming out of Michelle is their bounce coming out of Ted Kennedy showing up. Although wasn't much of a secret -- as it went terribly keeping secrets. Who I think that counselor is if.

Not I think I think ultimately going into the weekend nobody at least afford it -- point out. Nationally. Weak spot -- Colorado where Obama was leading by five points in our poll just released -- they ago. Which was significantly higher than most of the other Colorado polls for Obama. Mostly of polls evidence statistical. That he got McCain's lead. So I think in those states and nationally you're going to see 48 points and then you know be pressured you know coast to. The Republicans folks to see whether or not -- can reverse that. -- into it works --

Dave let me ask you -- Marjorie and and me as well as our audience through the South -- seven -- the battleground states that Iraq could. Commute just run those again first because of their -- war that have thrown into the mix and I'm not sure. Whether right or whether right -- copy it all down accurately so run run the seven Faris.

Well we've got Virginia. Ohio. Florida and Colorado. -- we've also -- New Hampshire in the mix because. We don't we're appalled -- capture and two cycles and we know how. It -- goes you know especially true fault. And we also have Nevada and Montana. And currently we do not have Indiana in ourselves and but you know we we believe that that will follow -- you know historical trends you probably Republican although maybe closer.

Court to question -- stand for you. Pennsylvania. I did I can I made and -- may not have heard you say that -- it might not be in an -- told by a lot of credible people David that Michigan. Is looking looked -- as if it might be a lightly. -- public and outcome as opposed to the last couple of a presidential election to spend comfortably in the democratic column.

Yeah a lot of a lot of other pollsters help Michigan in play you know having having done this a couple of times. You know. Michigan follows a very familiar pattern. Which is. Historically had votes democratic. You know -- a high percentage of the time but polls close in October. And then. Opens up toward the democratic candidates who can the last two weeks have been the last. The last eleven holes that have been taken since June night. And -- Obama leading by between two and nine points. And you know when he undecided is lower really is going to be hard to.

Overcoming -- after okay are right. In net New Mexico I think you had mentioned yesterday's New Mexico. It's you know in play as well.

It could be. I think it's going to -- democratic. And again not even including the convention bounces for the last. Five polls it's New Mexico has. Obama. About between three and eight points going back to June 19. I think that that's probably going to go Obama it did you got the demographically. -- winds up to be a swing state but. I'm already you know in in the column of Democrats -- that state.

That okay hated -- you as always you have been great we -- time we're -- for two anything he can give us over the next couple of days in terms of the bounce as an occurrence. We will listen closely when you say 48 you expect out of the weekend but they might be away. That folks like you brainy actually you can measure that Ted Kennedy impact Michelle Obama is act. Tonight will be Hillary and I it is also why around Governor Deval Patrick so a lot to a lot to watch on us. Niger myself and you David hey Dave Taylor loveless as always thank you to you know what to Suffolk University.